• Title/Summary/Keyword: Knowledge Use

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Business Strategies for Korean Private Security-Guard Companies Utilizing Resource-based Theory and AHP Method (자원기반 이론과 AHP 방법을 활용한 민간 경호경비 기업의 전략 연구)

  • Kim, Heung-Ki;Lee, Jong-Won
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.36
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    • pp.177-200
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    • 2013
  • As we enter a high industrial society that widens the gap between the rich and poor, demand for the security services has grown explosively. With the growth in quantitative expansion of security services, people have also placed increased requirements on more sophisticated and diversified security services. Consequently, market outlook for private security services industry is positive. However, Korea's private security services companies are experiencing difficulties in finding a direction to capture this new market opportunity due to their small sizes and lack of management-strategic thinking skills. Therefore, we intend to offer a direction of development for our private security services industry using a management-strategy theory and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), a structured decision-making method. A resource-based theory is one of the important management strategy theories. It explains that a company's overall performance is primarily determined by its competitive resources. Using this theory, we could analyze a company's unique resources and core competencies and set a strategic direction for the company accordingly. The usefulness and validity of this theory has been demonstrated as it has often been subject to empirical verification since 1990s. Based on this theory, we outlined a set of basic procedures to establish a management strategy for the private security services companies. We also used the AHP method to identify competitive resources, core competencies, and strategies from private security services companies in contrast with public companies. The AHP method is a technique that can be used in the decision making process by quantifying experts' knowledge and unstructured problems. This is a verified method that has been used in the management decision making in the corporate environment as well as for the various academic studies. In order to perform this method, we gathered data from 11 experts from academic, industrial, and research sectors and drew distinctive resources, competencies, and strategic direction for private security services companies vis-a-vis public organizations. Through this process, we came to the conclusion that private security services companies generally have intangible resources as their distinctive resources compared with public organization. Among those intangible resources, relational resources, customer information, and technologies were analyzed as important. In contrast, tangible resources such as equipment, funds, distribution channels are found to be relatively scarce. We also found the competencies in sales and marketing and new product development as core competencies. We chose a concentration strategy focusing on a particular market segment as a strategic direction considering these resources and competencies of private security services companies. A concentration strategy is the right fit for smaller companies as a strategy to allow them to focus all of their efforts on target customers in a single segment. Thus, private security services companies would face the important tasks such as developing a new market and appropriate products for such market segment and continuing marketing activities to manage their customers. Additionally, continuous recruitment is required to facilitate the effective use of human resources in order to strengthen their marketing competency in a long term.

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A study on the beauty of space by overall arrangement and composition of a picture in Oriental painting (동양회화의 경영위치(經營位置)에 의한 여백(餘白)의 미(美) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Seung-Sook
    • Journal of Science of Art and Design
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    • v.11
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    • pp.201-220
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    • 2007
  • From two viewpoints the writer investigated the beauty of space by overall arrangement and composition of a picture in Oriental painting. In particular, she examined the expanded representation and significance of space use which had not properly been recognized in the field of a colored picture contrary to a painting in India ink. She studied that the boundary for the representation and appreciation of space was unlimited to one field of painting by studying and analyzing it in connection with other fields of art which had something in common with it in techniques or languages of representation. The writer considered the aspects of similar forms and spirits as the methods of understanding and representing the essence of an object in creating a work. She generally considered the aspect of perfecting knowledge by studying the principle of an actual thing for the representation of revealed forms corresponding to the aspect of similar forms, and tried to reach the stage of 'materialization' united with the spirit of the subject of creation for the formless forms corresponding to the aspect of representing an artist's inner world as well as the external shapes of things. She tried to reach the stage of spiritual cultivation in pursuit of the boundary between 'mental vanity' and 'sitting quietly and attaining the state of perfect selflessness', which were presented by Chuang-tzu, to express the spirituality internal to it. She recognized that the projection of the cultivation on a work could convey internal essence as well as external forms to a picture. It was because the image of the form represented in a picture was based on the aesthetic experience got from realty. In the concept of space and a method of representing it, she explored and analyzed the basic concept of space, arranged the concept of space shown in Oriental ideas dividing it into the concepts of space in Confucianism, Taoism and the Zen sect. What she felt acutely through this study was that she should establish the identity of her work by succeeding to, changing and re-creating tradition based on the historical heritage left by successive excellent painters and theorists. Putting together all these things showed that establishing the identity in the world of work pursued and oriented by her required searching the direction in future works by mixing tradition with modern times in a creative way, which is just the purpose of study in this thesis.

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Study on ${\ulcorner}Bonchojeonghwa{\lrcorner}$ ${\ulcorner}Inbu{\lrcorner}$ ("본초정화(本草精華)" "인부(人部)"에 대한 고찰)

  • Kwon, Young-Bae;Eom, Dong-Myung;Kim, Hong-Kyoon
    • Korean Journal of Oriental Medicine
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2005
  • Study on ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$, which is one of the most specialized medical books in Boncho(Herbal Medicines), has been done by comparing it with some other medical books published in the Chosun dynasty. Though there was not meaningful result on e names of Korean medicine by this study and more study should follow in the future, from medicines recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Inbu (a chapter of medical ingredients from human body)${\lrcorner}$, we can reach on some results as follows by comparing in names of Korean medicines, their medical components, relevant explanations and etc. 1. Though it is difficult to know the author and the published year due to absence of the preface and epilogue, the publication is presumed to date from mid-l7th century, from the facts that Muheeong's ${\ulcorner}$Shinnongbonchokyongso${\lrcorner}$ is in the ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$'s reference list, and that there is not Hangul expression in the names of medicines nor the Ching dynasty’s books as a reference. 2. As a result of studying on the names of medicines recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Inbu${\lrcorner}$ of the Chosun dynasty's famous medical books, before ${\ulcorner}$ Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$, 19 medicines in ${\ulcorner}$Hyangyakjipsungbang${\lrcorner}$, 25 in ${\ulcorner}$Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$, and after ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$, 6 in ${\ulcorner}$Uimumbogam${\lrcorner}$, 4 in ${\ulcorner}$Kwangjebikup${\lrcorner}$, 11 in ${\ulcorner}$Bangyakhappyon${\lrcorner}$. And there are 37 medicines which are unique, ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ has 31, the biggest records among them. 3. As a result of studying on the names of medicines recorded in 「Inbu」 of the ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ and ${\ulcorner}$ Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$, 22 medicines were recorded in the both books, 9 were only recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ and 3 were only recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$. 3 out of the total 37 medicines recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Inbu${\lrcorner}$ are only recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Hangyakjipsungbang${\lrcorner}$, and more study on this is needed. 4. From the contents recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ and ${\ulcorner}$Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$, Benchojeonghwa is more in detail than Donguibogam. Thus, it was specialized in Boncho (Herbal Medicines) enough to be compared with general medical books, and played a good role in leading medical science's specialization. 5. Late Chosun dynasty's medical study on Boncho (Herbal Medicines) just like ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ didn't lead to an active development of knowledge communication due to Confucian ethics. This limitation created the trend relying on general medical books or Yaksungga (songs of memorizing Boncho information) for Boncho information, but Boncho information of late Chosun dynasty became more in detail. That is, while Bokhapbang, combination of various medicines, were developed in China, Danmibang, single medicine but different intensity, were developed in Chosun. And thus, even though the kinds of medicines became smaller, but its contents became rather rich. 5. The medicines recorded in ${\ulcorner}$Bonchojeonghwa${\lrcorner}$ and ${\ulcorner}$Donguibogam${\lrcorner}$ are, from the view point of today, unclean or rather uncomfortable to use. Out those medicines, Bunchung, Hwasijangsanginkol, Hongyon, Gonidoogun, Inkondang had been used for a very long time and which proves their medical efficacy, and it is a great pity that they can’t be tried today due to the limitation by modern ethics.

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Needs Accessment of Safety Education of High School Students in Seoul (서울시 고등학생의 안전교육 실태 및 요구도 조사)

  • 김민아;이명선
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.133-162
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    • 2001
  • Unexpected accidents in school has been gradually increased every year, and student's mistaken was the first reason of the accident. To preventing the students from Unexpected accidents in school, safety education is more important than having strong facilities to have much more strong protecting forces for the accidents. Therefore, systematic education of safety is needed most of all, and especially, strengthening safety education in school is needed. Hereby, this study is aimed at investigating and analysing the actual condition and demand of safety education. It also conducted a survey with the target of 1,255 students in the second grade of high school in Seoul from April 20 to May 19, and the result of this study is as follows. 1. In the general features of the subject of the survey, boy students and girl students occupied 50.8% and 49.2% each, and boys' high school (34.3%), girls' high school(32.2%) and co-ed(33.5%) participated in balance. In the location, north from Han river occupied 54.6%, south were 45.2%. 2. According to the status of experiencing an accident, boys were more experienced then girls(p〈0.05). From the section, home accident(56.8%) occupied most followed by school accident, traffic accident, sports accident and poisoning. The accident happening most often in detailed category is sports accident such as basket ball, foot ball and dodge ball. The actual condition of the subject's using a school health facility shows that boys students use it more often than girl students(p〈0.01) 3. In attitude toward safety, the subject showed lower interest in safety issues than other social issues. But attitude in seriality of safety problems were high. Also, they responded ‘individual citizen’(63.1%) as the one who should make efforts for safety. Regarding knowledge of preventing safety accidents in attitude toward individual safety, 42.2% answered ‘they know a little’ and 32.6% of respondents say ‘they do not know’. To a question of the degree of the subject's following safety rules, 36.4% were answered ‘keeping’ and the group using a school health facility shows more ‘keeping’ the others(p〈0.05). 4. To a question of asking if they have experienced safety education, 51.2% answered ‘yes’. Teachers who mainly take care of safety education are answered as training teacher(48.7%). As for education time, training class(51.3%) is said to have safety education most followed by health-related event and PE(Physical Education). Frequency of education shows once or twice a session (62.8%) most often, but in case of co-ed school, 5-7times a session or more(20.1%) are being practiced. Looking at education time, 1-2 hour(s)(22.1%) or for a short time(22.1%) during class are being practiced. As an education method, instruction(43.8%) and video education(32.5%) are being practiced, and when it comes to education evaluation method, ‘not practiced’(70.0%) answered. To the question if they are satisfied with school safety education, they answered more ‘no(43.1%)’ than ‘yes(6.7%)’, and the reason is that safety education class is just for formality's sake, and the fact they already know is being repeated. The contents of safety education is composed of school safety, home safety, and first aid. 5. It is turned out that 56.5% of the total boy students and 61.1% of the total girl students recognize the necessity of safety education. To the question if safety education is needed in an elementary and middle education course, 46.4% of the subject answer answered' it's necessary'. The most reason for their answers are ‘safety education is directly related to life’. 6. Regarding the requested time of safety education is ‘one hour a week’ by 55.9%. For safety education, safety education teachers(38.7%) are answered to be the most proper. As a request for safety education, video education is answered to be the most appropriate(30.6%), followed by practical skills, lecture and discussion(p〈0.05). Demand of educational evaluation, practical skills, interview and observation are answered to be needed. To the question if they want to participate in the way of demanded safety education, 41.9% of respondents answer ‘have a mind to participate in’ (41.9%). To benefits followed by completing safety education, 72.0% of respondents answer ‘agree’, and 24.7% ‘do not agree’, which means lout 4 disagrees with completing safety education. 7. Looking at demand of safety education according to the features of the subject, ‘our position for the person who has handicapped’ was answer to the most.

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The Efficiency Analysis of CRM System in the Hotel Industry Using DEA (DEA를 이용한 호텔 관광 서비스 업계의 CRM 도입 효율성 분석)

  • Kim, Tai-Young;Seol, Kyung-Jin;Kwak, Young-Dai
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.91-110
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    • 2011
  • This paper analyzes the cases where the hotels have increased their services and enhanced their work process through IT solutions to cope with computerization globalization. Also the cases have been studies where national hotels use the CRM solution internally to respond effectively to customers requests, increase customer analysis, and build marketing strategies. In particular, this study discusses the introduction of the CRM solutions and CRM sales business and marketing services using a process for utilizing the presumed, CRM by introducing effective DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis). First, the comparison has done regarding the relative efficiency of L Company with the CCR model, then compared L Company's restaurants and facilities' effectiveness through BCC model. L Company reached a conclusion that it is important to precisely create and manage sales data which are the preliminary data for CRM, and for that reason it made it possible to save sales data generated by POS system on each sales performance database. In order to do that, it newly established Oracle POS system and LORIS POS system concerned with restaurants for food and beverage as well as rooms, and made it possible to stably generate and manage sales data and manage. Moreover, it set up a composite database to control comprehensively the results of work processes during a specific period by collecting customer registration information and made it possible to systematically control the information on sales performances. By establishing a system which unifies database and managing it comprehensively, impeccability of data has been greatly enhanced and a problem which generated asymmetric data could be thoroughly solved. Using data accumulated on the comprehensive database, sales data can be analyzed, categorized, classified through data mining engine imbedded in Polaris CRM and the results can be organized on data mart to provide them in the form of CRM application data. By transforming original sales data into forms which are easy to handle and saving them on data mart separately, it enabled acquiring well-organized data with ease when engaging in various marketing operations, holding a morning meeting and working on decision-making. By using summarized data at data mart, it was possible to process marketing operations such as telemarketing, direct mailing, internet marketing service and service product developments for perceived customers; moreover, information on customer perceptions which is one of CRM's end-products could feed back into the comprehensive database. This research was undertaken to find out how effectively CRM has been employed by comparing and analyzing the management performance of each enterprise site and store after introducing CRM to Hotel enterprises using DEA technique. According to the research results, efficiency evaluation for each site was calculated through input and output factors to find out comparative CRM system usage efficiency of L's Company four sites; moreover, with regard to stores, the sizes of workforce and budget application show a huge difference and so does the each store efficiency. Furthermore, by using the DEA technique, it could assess which sites have comparatively high efficiency and which don't by comparing and evaluating hotel enterprises IT project outcomes such as CRM introduction using the CCR model for each site of the related enterprises. By using the BCC model, it could comparatively evaluate the outcome of CRM usage at each store of A site, which is representative of L Company, and as a result, it could figure out which stores maintain high efficiency in using CRM and which don't. It analyzed the cases of CRM introduction at L Company, which is a hotel enterprise, and precisely evaluated them through DEA. L Company analyzed the customer analysis system by introducing CRM and achieved to provide customers identified through client analysis data with one to one tailored services. Moreover, it could come up with a plan to differentiate the service for customers who revisit by assessing customer discernment rate. As tasks to be solved in the future, it is required to do research on the process analysis which can lead to a specific outcome such as increased sales volumes by carrying on test marketing, target marketing using CRM. Furthermore, it is also necessary to do research on efficiency evaluation in accordance with linkages between other IT solutions such as ERP and CRM system.

T-Cache: a Fast Cache Manager for Pipeline Time-Series Data (T-Cache: 시계열 배관 데이타를 위한 고성능 캐시 관리자)

  • Shin, Je-Yong;Lee, Jin-Soo;Kim, Won-Sik;Kim, Seon-Hyo;Yoon, Min-A;Han, Wook-Shin;Jung, Soon-Ki;Park, Se-Young
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.293-299
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    • 2007
  • Intelligent pipeline inspection gauges (PIGs) are inspection vehicles that move along within a (gas or oil) pipeline and acquire signals (also called sensor data) from their surrounding rings of sensors. By analyzing the signals captured in intelligent PIGs, we can detect pipeline defects, such as holes and curvatures and other potential causes of gas explosions. There are two major data access patterns apparent when an analyzer accesses the pipeline signal data. The first is a sequential pattern where an analyst reads the sensor data one time only in a sequential fashion. The second is the repetitive pattern where an analyzer repeatedly reads the signal data within a fixed range; this is the dominant pattern in analyzing the signal data. The existing PIG software reads signal data directly from the server at every user#s request, requiring network transfer and disk access cost. It works well only for the sequential pattern, but not for the more dominant repetitive pattern. This problem becomes very serious in a client/server environment where several analysts analyze the signal data concurrently. To tackle this problem, we devise a fast in-memory cache manager, called T-Cache, by considering pipeline sensor data as multiple time-series data and by efficiently caching the time-series data at T-Cache. To the best of the authors# knowledge, this is the first research on caching pipeline signals on the client-side. We propose a new concept of the signal cache line as a caching unit, which is a set of time-series signal data for a fixed distance. We also provide the various data structures including smart cursors and algorithms used in T-Cache. Experimental results show that T-Cache performs much better for the repetitive pattern in terms of disk I/Os and the elapsed time. Even with the sequential pattern, T-Cache shows almost the same performance as a system that does not use any caching, indicating the caching overhead in T-Cache is negligible.

Analysis of the Utilization Characteristics of Electrical Power and Equipments on the Farms (농촌의 전력및 전기기기의 이용특성분석)

  • 박승우;류한열
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.3943-3955
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    • 1975
  • The purposes of this study are to evaluate the utilization characteristics of electrical power consumption, to grasp the present trends in the use of electrical equipments, to estimate the demand factor and load factor being held, and to evaluate the efficiency of electical uses for the recently electrified farms cultivating paddy rice. For the purposes, 109 sample farms located in eleven villiages electrified in six different years from 1968 to 1973, were chosen at random and investigated on 35 items concerning to electrical uses and wiring systems. The survey was carried out in 1975, in the vinicity of Suweon city. The results are summarized as follows: i) The average annual power consumption on sample farms is considered to be low, being 242.9 Kwh. in 1974, and varied according to the different electrified year and size of cultivated land, respectively. It has significant positive correlation to the area of farm, too. ii) Between the number of year of electrical uses and the power consumption, there is very significant positive correlation, which could be expressed as Y=43.041+16.108 X, where X represents the number of years of electrical uses. The annual increment of power consumption is much greater at the beginning of the electrification than that at the later years, its average being approximately 20 percent. However, it is recommended that any estimation of long-term increments should be carefully investigated. iii) The monthly power consumption varies considerably throughout a year, in which the heaviest farm load occurs in November. Observing the seasonal variation of consumption, the winter-time is the heaviest season while the summer is the lowest. The result implies house lighting is chief contribution to the present electrical consumption on the farms. Comparing the variation of monthly consumption ratios between the sample farms and industries, the electrical uses on the farms are independant of the industrial uses, and further, the agricultural uses are of inverse pattern to the farms from the results that there is negative correlationship between them, iv) The number of electrical equipments used on the farms are occupied chiefly by lighting sources. Next to the lighting sources, household appliances of small quantity and some motors are used. The mean electrical quantity is about 1, 127.4 watt, which corresponds to about 37.6 per cent to the contracted quantity. The composition of quantity is chiefly occupied by the electrical motor of about 1.5 hp., single-phased. The number of the annual utilization hours of each equipment is tabulated in Table IV-5. In contradiction to the high utilization of lighting sources and small household appliances, the motor is poorly used for approximately 22 hours in a year. v) More than 55 per cent of farms want to purchase new electrical equipments such as small household appliances and electrical motors in their number. The impulse of purchasing such items is stimulated by the contacts to the mass media and their knowledge on such equipments. Consequently, the increase of electrical uses could be prompted by such trials as education and demonstration. vi) The demand and load factors on the farms vary considerably according to the greater variation of the power consumption, daily or monthly. The daily demand factor is 22.4 per cent and load factor 18.6 per cent, while the annual demand factor is 1.3 per cent and load factor 70 per cent approximately. Therefore, the low efficiency of construction cost requires re-evaluation of the present contracted quantity of 3 Kw. or increase of electrical uses. vii) The electrical energy on the farms devoted chiefly to lighten the farm residences does not contribute to the farm incomes. Consequently, the cost of electrical consumption presses considerably upon the farm economy. Therefore, there is great need to build up the electrical uses on the farms through the development of new works and techinques to utilize any electrical equipments on the production of farm products. Further more, such the development should be related to increase the actual income of the farm consumers.

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Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

A Study on the Domestic Small Package Express Service′s Competitive Power Improvement Plan at EC Times (전자상거래 시대 국내 택배업의 경쟁력 향상 방안에 관한 연구)

  • 박영태;정종식
    • Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.31-59
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    • 2002
  • Recently there are many changes of logistics environment Such as integrated logistics information system, the rapid growth of the domestic and international small package express service and third party logistics with Electronic Commerce. At this time it is very important to deliver to customers the goods sold through EC speedy, accurately and safely. That is to say, the role of small package express service is very important at EC times. The bottlenecks of small package express service in the circumstances of EC are the weakness of EC operating company and small package express service provider the shortage of distribution centre and cargo terminal, the shortage of skilled man with related small package express service etc. So, I suggested that for activation of EC it is necessary to strengthen the strategic alliances, introduce GPS and use the third party logistics positively in the side of small package express service provider. And it is necessary to prepare for the settlements of traffic problems, support the introduction of integrated logistics service, logistics information system, deregulate restriction such as weight limit of vehicles in the side of the government. And to government support throughout extending nation's SOC, deregulation, support to small package express service terminal, permit to stopping & parking in downtown, abolishing a no passing zone, permit to being employed foreigner. Also this service involves ensuring that the product will arrive when wanted, and in an undamaged condition.

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Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.