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Analysis of the Effect of Objective Functions on Hydrologic Model Calibration and Simulation (목적함수에 따른 매개변수 추정 및 수문모형 정확도 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Yeon, Min Ho;Kim, Young Hun;Jung, Sung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • An automatic optimization technique is used to estimate the optimal parameters of the hydrologic model, and different hydrologic response results can be provided depending on objective functions. In this study, the parameters of the event-based rainfall-runoff model were estimated using various objective functions, the reproducibility of the hydrograph according to the objective functions was evaluated, and appropriate objective functions were proposed. As the rainfall-runoff model, the storage function model(SFM), which is a lumped hydrologic model used for runoff simulation in the current Korean flood forecasting system, was selected. In order to evaluate the reproducibility of the hydrograph for each objective function, 9 rainfall events were selected for the Cheoncheon basin, which is the upstream basin of Yongdam Dam, and widely-used 7 objective functions were selected for parameter estimation of the SFM for each rainfall event. Then, the reproducibility of the simulated hydrograph using the optimal parameter sets based on the different objective functions was analyzed. As a result, RMSE, NSE, and RSR, which include the error square term in the objective function, showed the highest accuracy for all rainfall events except for Event 7. In addition, in the case of PBIAS and VE, which include an error term compared to the observed flow, it also showed relatively stable reproducibility of the hydrograph. However, in the case of MIA, which adjusts parameters sensitive to high flow and low flow simultaneously, the hydrograph reproducibility performance was found to be very low.

Numerical Examinations of Damage Process on the Chuteway Slabs of Spillway under Various Flow Conditions (여수로 방류에 따른 여수로 바닥슬래브의 손상 발생원인 수치모의 검토)

  • Yoo, Hyung Ju;Shin, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.47-60
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    • 2021
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate variability increased, the damage of aging chuteway slabs of spillway are on the rise. Accordingly, a wide array of field survey, hydraulic experiment and numerical simulation have been conducted to find the cause of damage on chuteway slabs. However, these studies generally reviewed the flow characteristics and distribution of pressure on chuteway slabs. Therefore the derivation of damage on chuteway slabs was relatively insufficient in the literature. In this study, the cavitation erosion and hydraulic jacking were assumed to be the causes of damage on chuteway slabs, and the phenomena were reproduced using 3D numerical models, FLOW-3D and COMSOL Multiphysics. In addition, the cavitation index was calculated and the von Mises stress by uplift pressure distribution was compared with tensile and bending strength of concrete to evaluate the possibility of cavitation erosion and hydraulic jacking. As a result of numerical simulation on cavitation erosion and hydraulic jacking under various flow conditions with complete opening gate, the cavitation index in the downstream of spillway was less than 0.3, and the von Mises stress on concrete was 4.6 to 5.0 MPa. When von Mises stress was compared with tensile and bending strength of concrete, the fatigue failure caused by continuous pressure fluctuation occurred on chuteway slabs. Therefore, the cavitation erosion and hydraulic jacking caused by high speed flow were one of the main causes of damage to the chuteway slabs in spillway. However, this study has limitations in that the various shape conditions of damage(cavity and crack) and flow conditions were not considered and Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) was not simulated. If these limitations are supplemented and reviewed, it is expected to derive more efficient utilization of the maintenance plan on spillway in the future.

A Study on Improvement Plans for Local Safety Assessment in Korea (국내 지역안전도 평가의 개선방안 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Moon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.69-80
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    • 2021
  • This study tried to suggest improvement measures by discovering problems or matters requiring improvement among the annual regional safety evaluation systems. Briefly introducing the structure and contents of the study, which is the introduction, describes the regional safety evaluation method newly applied by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2020. Utilization plans were also introduced according to the local safety level that was finally evaluated by the local government. In this paper, various views of previous researchers related to regional safety are summarized and described. In addition, problems were drawn in the composition of the index of local safety, the method of calculating the index, and the application of the current index. Next, the problems of specific regional safety evaluation indicators were analyzed and solutions were presented. First, "Number of semi-basement households" is replaced with "Number of households receiving basic livelihood" of 「Social Vulnerability Index」 in the field of disaster risk factors is replaced with "the number of households receiving basic livelihood". In addition, the "Vinyl House Area" is evaluated by replacing "the number of households living in a Vinyl House, the number of container households, and the number of households in Jjok-bang villages" with data. Second, in the management and evaluation of habitual drought disaster areas, local governments with a water supply rate of 95% or higher in Counties, Cities, and Districts are treated as "missing". This is because drought disasters rarely occur in the metropolitan area and local governments that have undergone urbanization. Third, the activities of safety sheriffs, safety monitor volunteers, and disaster safety silver monitoring groups along with the local autonomous prevention foundation are added to the evaluation of the evaluation index of 「Regional Autonomous Prevention Foundation Activation」 in the field of response to disaster prevention measures. However, since the name of the local autonomous disaster prevention organization may be different for each local government, if it is an autonomous disaster prevention organization organized and active for disaster prevention, it would be appropriate to evaluate the results by summing up all of its activities. Fourth, among the Scorecard evaluation items, which is a safe city evaluation tool used by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR), the item "preservation of natural buffers to strengthen the protection functions provided by natural ecosystems" is borrowed, which is closely related to natural disasters. The Scorecard evaluation is an assessment index that focuses on improving the disaster resilience of local governments while carrying out the campaign "Creating cities resilient to climate crises and disasters" emphasized by UNDRR. Finally, the names of "regional safety level" and "local safety index" are similar, so the term of local safety level is changed to "natural disaster safety level" or "natural calamity safety level". This is because only the general public can distinguish the local safety level from the local safety index.

Application and Comparative Analysis of River Discharge Estimation Methods Using Surface Velocity (표면유속을 이용한 하천 유량산정방법의 적용 및 비교 분석)

  • Jae Hyun, Song;Seok Geun Park;Chi Young Kim;Hung Soo Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.15-32
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    • 2023
  • There are some difficulties such as safety problem and need of manpower in measuring discharge by submerging the instruments because of many floating debris and very fast flow in the river during the flood season. As an alternative, microwave water surface current meters have been increasingly used these days, which are easy to measure the discharge in the field without contacting the water surface directly. But it is also hard to apply the method in the sudden and rapidly changing field conditions. Therefore, the estimation of the discharge using the surface velocity in flood conditions requires a theoretical and economical approach. In this study, the measurements from microwave water surface current meter and rating curve were collected and then analyzed by the discharge estimation method using the surface velocity. Generally, the measured and converted discharge are analyzed to be similar in all methods at a hydraulic radius of 3 m or over or a mean velocity of 2 ㎧ or more. Besides, the study computed the discharge by the index velocity method and the velocity profile method with the maximum surface velocity in the section where the maximum velocity occurs at the high water level range of the rating curve among the target locations. As a result, the mean relative error with the converted discharge was within 10%. That is, in flood season, the discharge estimation method using one maximum surface velocity measurement, index velocity method, and velocity profile method can be applied to develop high-level extrapolation, therefore, it is judged that the reliability for the range of extrapolation estimation could be improved. Therefore, the discharge estimation method using the surface velocity is expected to become a fast and efficient discharge measurement method during the flood season.

Assessment of Methane Production Rate Based on Factors of Contaminated Sediments (오염퇴적물의 주요 영향인자에 따른 메탄발생 생성률 평가)

  • Dong Hyun Kim;Hyung Jun Park;Young Jun Bang;Seung Oh Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2023
  • The global focus on mitigating climate change has traditionally centered on carbon dioxide, but recent attention has shifted towards methane as a crucial factor in climate change adaptation. Natural settings, particularly aquatic environments such as wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes, play a significant role as sources of greenhouse gases. The accumulation of organic contaminants on the lake and reservoir beds can lead to the microbial decomposition of sedimentary material, generating greenhouse gases, notably methane, under anaerobic conditions. The escalation of methane emissions in freshwater is attributed to the growing impact of non-point sources, alterations in water bodies for diverse purposes, and the introduction of structures such as river crossings that disrupt natural flow patterns. Furthermore, the effects of climate change, including rising water temperatures and ensuing hydrological and water quality challenges, contribute to an acceleration in methane emissions into the atmosphere. Methane emissions occur through various pathways, with ebullition fluxes-where methane bubbles are formed and released from bed sediments-recognized as a major mechanism. This study employs Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) tests to analyze and quantify the factors influencing methane gas emissions. Methane production rates are measured under diverse conditions, including temperature, substrate type (glucose), shear velocity, and sediment properties. Additionally, numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the relationship between fluid shear stress on the sand bed and methane ebullition rates. The findings reveal that biochemical factors significantly influence methane production, whereas shear velocity primarily affects methane ebullition. Sediment properties are identified as influential factors impacting both methane production and ebullition. Overall, this study establishes empirical relationships between bubble dynamics, the Weber number, and methane emissions, presenting a formula to estimate methane ebullition flux. Future research, incorporating specific conditions such as water depth, effective shear stress beneath the sediment's tensile strength, and organic matter, is expected to contribute to the development of biogeochemical and hydro-environmental impact assessment methods suitable for in-situ applications.

A Study on the Operation Plan of the Gangwon-do Disaster Management Resources Integrated Management Center (강원도 재난관리자원 통합관리센터 운영방안에 관한 연구)

  • Hang-Il Jo;Sang-Beom Park;Kye-Won Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2024
  • In Korea, as disasters become larger and more complex, there is a trend of shifting from a focus on response and recovery to a focus on prevention and preparedness. In order to prevent and prepare for disasters, each local government manages disaster management resources by stockpiling them. However, although disaster management resources are stored in individual warehouses, they are managed by department rather than by warehouse, resulting in insufficient management of disaster management resources due to the heavy workload of those in charge. In order to intensively manage these disaster management resources, an integrated disaster management resource management center is established and managed at the metropolitan/provincial level. In the case of Gangwon-do, the subject of this study, a warehouse is rented and operated as an integrated disaster management resource management center. When leasing an integrated management center, there is the inconvenience of having to move the location every 1 to 2 years, so it is deemed necessary to build a dedicated facility in an available site. To select a location candidate, network analysis was used to measure access to and use of facilities along interconnected routes of networks such as roads and railways. During network analysis, the Location-Allocation method, which was widely used in the past to determine the location of multiple facilities, was applied. As a result, Hoengseong-gun in Gangwon-do was identified as a suitable candidate site. In addition, if the integrated management center uses our country's logistics system to stockpile disaster management resources, local governments can mobilize disaster management resources in 3 days, and it is said that it takes 3 days to return to normal life after a disaster occurs. Each city's disaster management resource stockpile is 3 days' worth per week, and the integrated management center stores 3 times the maximum of the city's 4-day stockpile.

Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.