• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.810-816
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• 2009

To identify effective food packaging compounds that could significantly affect the freshness of stored food, the efficiency and performance of porous polypropylene film containing mustard oil as a freshness maintenance ingredient was studied by GC-MS analysis and storage testing of bread. AITC (allyl-isothiocyanate)-emitting properties of films impregnated with mustard oil were evaluated by GC-MS. AITC was extracted from mustard oil, and used as a vapor as an effective antimicrobial agent. Films were prepared under four different conditions (the film types were abbreviated 25SF1, 25SF2, 50LF, and IAF) and the amounts of AITC inside vinyl packs constructed using the four films were measured. The results showed that the 25SF2 film (width 25 mm, length 20 cm) yielded a greater amount of AITC than did the 50LF film (width 50 mm, length 20 cm). We confirmed that the amount of gas emission showed better between layer and layer of the film side than the internal film. In storage testing using various films at $35^{\circ}C$ for 25 days, 25SF2 film provided excellent preservation of bread compared with 50LF film. This was in line with the fact that 25SF2 film yielded the highest amount of AITC. Emission capacities AITC of 2 cm film were measured using bottles various volumes (43 mL, 500 mL, 1000 mL) and both closed and open systems. The AITC content of the film in 43 mL bottle was much higher than that yielded by other films in the closed system, and AITC was rapidly emitted, with relatively low residual gas emission after 4 days in an open system. Mustard oil is a useful freshness maintenance ingredient hence, analysis of AITC emission kinetics from various films were helpful to develop films with optimal antimicrobial effects, and will allow application of such films in food packaging systems.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.28-36
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• 2009

While existing literature has focused extensively on the strengths and weaknesses of the Chaebol and their ownership and governance, there have been few studies of Korean non-Chaebol firms. However, Lee, Lee and Pennings (2001) did not specifically investigate the competitive strategies that non-Chaebol firms use to survive against the Chaebol in the domestic Korean market. The motivation of this paper is to document, through four exploratory case studies, the successful competitive strategies of non-Chaebol Korean companies against the Chaebol and then offer some propositions that may be useful to other entrepreneurial firms as well as public policy makers. Competition and cooperation as conceptualized by product similarity and cooperative inter.firm relationship respectively, are major dimensions of firm.level marketing strategy. From these two dimensions, we develop the following $2{\times}2$ matrix, with 4 types of competitive strategies for non-Chaebol companies against the Chaebol (Fig. 1.). The non-Chaebol firm in Cell 1 has a "me-too" product for the low-end market while conceding the high-end market to a Chaebol. In Cell 2, the non-Chaebol firm partners with a Chaebol company, either as a supplier or complementor. In Cell 3, the non-Chaebol firm engages in direct competition with a Chaebol. In Cell 4, the non-Chaebol firm targets an unserved part of the market with an innovative product or service. The four selected cases such as E.Rae Electronics Industry Company (Co-exister), Intops (Supplier), Pantech (Competitor) and Humax (Niche Player) are analyzed to provide each strategy with richer insights. Following propositions are generated based upon our conceptual framework: Proposition 1: Non-Chaebol firms that have a cooperative relationship with a Chaebol will perform better than firms that do not. Proposition 1a; Co-existers will perform better than Competitors. Proposition 1b: Partners (suppliers or complementors) will perform better than Niche players. Proposition 2: Firms that have no product similarity with a Chaebol will perform better than firms that have product similarity. Proposition 2a: Partners (suppliers or complementors) will perform better than Co.existers. Proposition 2b: Niche players will perform better than Competitors. Proposition 3: Niche players should perform better than Co-existers. Proposition 4: Performance can be rank.ordered in descending order as Partners, Niche Players, Co.existers, Competitors. A team of experts was constituted to categorize each of these 216 non-Chaebol companies into one of the 4 cells in our typology. Simple Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in SPSS statistical software was used to test our propositions. Overall findings are that it is better to have a cooperative relationship with a Chaebol and to offer products or services differentiated from a Chaebol. It is clear that the only profitable strategy, on average, to compete against the Chaebol is to be a partner (supplier or complementor). Competing head on with a Chaebol company is a costly strategy not likely to pay off for a non-Chaebol firm. Strategies to avoid head on competition with the Chaebol by serving niche markets with differentiated products or by serving the low-end of the market ignored by the Chaebol are better survival strategies. This paper illustrates that there are ways in which small and medium Korean non-Chaebol firms can thrive in a Chaebol environment, though not without risks. Using different combinations of competition and cooperation firms may choose particular positions along the product similarity and cooperative relationship dimensions to develop their competitive strategies-co-exister, competitor, partner, niche player. Based on our exploratory case-study analysis, partner seems to be the best strategy for non-Chaebol firms while competitor appears to be the most risky one. Niche players and co-existers have intermediate performance, though the former do better than the latter. It is often the case with managers of small and medium size companies that they tend to view market leaders, typically the Chaebol, with rather simplistic assumptions of either competition or collaboration. Consequently, many non-Chaebol firms turn out to be either passive collaborators or overwhelmed competitors of the Chaebol. In fact, competition and collaboration are not mutually exclusive, and can be pursued at the same time. As suggested in this paper, non-Chaebol firms can actively choose to compete and collaborate, depending on their environment, internal resources and capabilities.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.41
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• pp.37-66
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• 2014

In recent years, with the development of computers and electronics, electronics and communication technology in a growing and each part is dependent on the cross-referencing makes all electronic equipment is obsolete due to direct or indirect damage EMP. Korea and the impending standoff North Korea has a considerable level of technologies related to the EMP, EMP weapons you already have or in a few years, the development of EMP weapons will complete. North Korea launched a long-range missile and conducted a nuclear test on several occasions immediately after, when I saw the high-altitude nuclear blackmail has been strengthening the outright offensive nuclear EMP attacks at any time and practical significance for the EMP will need offensive skills would improve. At this point you can predict the damage situation of Korea's security reality that satisfy the need, more than anything else to build a protective system of the EMP. The scale of the damage that unforeseen but significant military damage and socio-economic damage and fatalities when I looked into the situation which started out as a satellite communications systems and equipment to attack military and security systems and transportation, finance, national emergency system, such as the damage elsewhere. In General, there is no direct casualties reported, but EMP medical devices that rely on lethal damage to people who can show up. In addition, the State power system failure due to a power supply interruption would not have thought the damage would bring State highly dependent on domestic power generation of nuclear plants is a serious nuclear power plant accident in the event of a blackout phenomenon can lead to the plant's internal problems should see a forecast. First of all, a special expert Committee of the EMP, the demand for protective facilities and equipment and conduct an investigation, he takes fits into your budget is under strict criteria by configuring the contractors should be sifting through. He then created the Agency for verification of performance EMP protection after you have verified the performance of maintenance, maintenance, safety and security management, design and construction company organized and systematic process Guard facilities or secret communications equipment and perfect for the EMP, such as protective equipment maneuver system should take.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.43-57
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• 2012

To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.381-390
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• 2017

The aim of this study is to develop a teamwork self-assessment tool for Korean nursing students (K-self assessment of teamwork) to evaluate the effects of simulation education, and to test the validity of the tool. As the research method, data were collected from 185 third- and fourth-year nursing students who had completed emergency simulation practice courses while attending nursing schools at two universities in K region. The collected data were analyzed using such statistical programs as SPSS/WIN 22.0 and AMOS 17.0. A test of the construct validity was conducted using confirmatory factor analysis and explanatory factor analysis. To test the criterion validity of the K-self assessment of teamwork, its correlation with the Mayo High Performance Teamwork Scale (MHPTS) was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficients. In addition, of the reliability items, the internal consistency was tested using Chronbach's ${\alpha}$. The results of the study are as follows: The construct validity was demonstrated through the confirmatory factor analysis and explanatory factor analysis. As regards the test of reliability, there was one item for which the reliability of its validity was increased to .937 when a (single/particular) question was removed. However, in the end, no questions were removed, because the correlation coefficient between the questions and the total score was greater than .4. The overall reliability of the K-self assessment tool of teamwork was found to be .934, confirming its reliability. The translated version of the K-self assessment of teamwork developed in this study was also demonstrated to be applicable to domestic settings, in which the teamwork of nursing students can be assessed during simulation education. The results of the use of this tool in the future will be used to assess the effects of simulation education at nursing colleges, and will become the basis of various types of educational programs aimed at improving teamwork in emergency situations.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.97-117
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• 2003

Objective: This study is to examine the validity and reliability of Computerized Neurocognitive Function Test among normal children in elementary school. Methods: K-ABC, K-PIC, and Computerized Neurocognitive Function Test were performed to the 120 body of normal children(10 of each male and female) from June, 2002 to January, 2003. Those children had over the average of intelligence and passed the rule out criteria. To verify test-retest reliability for those 30 children who were randomly selected, Computerized Neurocognitive Function Test was carried out again 4 weeks later. Results: As a results of correlation analysis for validity test, four of continues performance tests matched with those on adults. In the memory tests, results presented the same as previous research with a difference between forward test and backward test in short-term memory. In higher cognitive function tests, tests were consist of those with different purpose respectively. After performing factor analysis on 43 variables out of 12 tests, 10 factors were raised and the total percent of variance was 75.5%. The reasons were such as: 'sustained attention, information processing speed, vigilance, verbal learning, allocation of attention and concept formation, flexibility, concept formation, visual learning, short-term memory, and selective attention' in order. In correlation with K-ABC to prepare explanatory criteria, selectively significant correlation(p<.0.5-001) was found in subscale of K-ABC. In the test-retest reliability test, the results reflecting practice effect were found and prominent especially in higher cognitive function tests. However, split-half reliability(r=0.548-0.7726, p<.05) and internal consistency(0.628-0.878, p<.05) of each examined group were significantly high. Conclusion: The performance of Computerized Neurocognitive Function Test in normal children represented differ developmental character than that in adult. And basal information for preparing the explanatory criteria could be acquired by searching for the relation with standardized intelligence test which contains neuropsycological background.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.531-536
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• 2010

A quantitative analytical method has been established for the measurement of inosine 5'-monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH) activity in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) by ion-pair reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography equipped with ultraviolet detection (HPLC/UV). IMPDH is a ${\beta}$-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide hydrate (NAD+)-dependent dehydrogenase in which the enzyme converts inosine 5'-monophosphate (IMP) into xanthosine 5'-monophosphate (XMP). Its activity was measured by quantifying a HPLC chromatogram corresponding to XMP produced during the incubation of lysed PBMCs with IMP as a substrate and $NAD^+$ as a coenzyme. XMP produced was detected at a wavelength of 260 nm. The mobile phase was composed of a mixture of 37 mM potassium dihydrogen phosphate containing 7 mM tetra-n-butylammonium hydrogen sulfate adjusted to pH 5.5 and methanol (85:15, v/v) with a flow rate of 1 mL/min. The calibration curve was linear ($r^2$=0.999999) in the range of $0.2-50.0\;{\mu}M$ and the limit of quantification (LOQ) was $0.2\;{\mu}M$. The intra- and inter-day precisions were between 0.88-1.47% and 0.85-5.24%, respectively. The intra- and inter-day accuracies were between 98.74-99.99% and 99.95-101.65%, respectively. IMPDH activity in 11 Korean healthy volunteers ranged from 18.29 to 36.60 nmol/h/mg protein (mean = $27.70{\pm}6.28\;nmol/h/mg$ protein).

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.55-92
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• 2010

In terms of labor market accomplishments, such as income, size of the company, and the matching quality between one's job and college major (specialization), a very large discrepancy is observed between the graduates from colleges located in Seoul and those outside Seoul. But, when the department average score of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) at the time of college entrance is controlled for, the discrepancy is found to be reduced to a considerable degree. In the case of wage gap, at least two third can be explained by the SAT score gap. The remaining wage gap seems to reflect the characteristics of workplace. In other words, graduates with high SAT scores enter colleges located in Seoul and thus tend to find better jobs leading to earning differences. This result that confirms the importance of aptitude test scores suggests that in the labor market, one of the major reasons behind a lower accomplishment of the graduate from local colleges is due to a lower competitiveness of local colleges in attracting the brightest students. But, this should not be viewed as only an internal problem of local colleges. This is because the growth of local economies tends to haul the advancement of local colleges in that area rather than being the other way around. The agglomeration effect in Seoul where headquarters of large corporations and financial institutions gather is the factor that has elevated the status of colleges located in Seoul since this provides highly preferred job choices of graduates. When the competitiveness of college is significantly influenced by exogenous factors, such as the vicinity to Seoul, the effort being made by colleges alone would not be enough to improve the situation. However, the central government, too, is not in the position to carry out countermeasure policies for such problems. The regional development strategy boosted through supportive policies for local colleges, such as financial support, is not based on the persuasive and empirical grounds. It is true that college education is universal and that the government''s intervention in assisting local colleges to secure basic conditions, such as tenure faculty and adequate facilities is necessary. However, the way of intervention should not be a support-only type. In order to improve the efficiency and effect of financial support, restructuring programs, including the merger and integration of insolvent colleges, should be underway prior to providing support. In addition, when the policy is focused on education recipients-local college students, and not on education providers-local colleges, the importance of regional gap in compulsory education (elementary and junior high schools) turns out to be much important as the gap between metropolitan area colleges and local colleges. Considering the educational gap before college entrance shown from the discrepancies of aptitude test scores among different regions, the imbalance between regions in terms of human resources is apparently derived from compulsory education, and not from college education. Therefore, there is a need to double the policy efforts to reduce the educational gap among different regions. In addition, given the current situation where it is difficult to find appropriate ex post facto policy measures to solve the problem of income gap between the graduates from metropolitan colleges and local colleges, it can be said that improving the environment for compulsory education in local areas is a growing necessity for bridging the educational gap among different regions.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.73
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• pp.56-91
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• 2015

This study examined changes in the independent production environment in the perspectives from flexible specialization of labor and media routines since January 2011, when comprehensive programming television channels (JTBC, MBN, Channel A, TV Chosun) emerged in Korea. In-depth interviews were conducted with thirteen individuals, including producers from independent production companies, broadcast writers, and individuals involved with these TV channels. The interview results indicated that a flexible specialization production system had been established by the comprehensive programming channels. This means that they were heavily dependent on independent producers, except in relations to their own news programs. Moreover, it was identified that the production of diverse programs could be difficult due to absurd contract practices such as those related to TV ratings and performance systems. Second, these channels have implemented some positive changes such as the payment of higher production costs and an incentive system, compared to terrestrial TV stations. However, the incentive system also helps to aggravate internal competition in the channel and also instigate contract competitions among independent companies, which can eventually result in the channels for holding exclusive rights to certain content and, hence, unfair business practices. Third, as a result of the newspaper and broadcast cross-owenership system of the comprehensive programming channels, hierarchical independent production practices can be established under the influence of newspaper proprietors and executives or managers who have previously worked for newspapers. Lastly, as a result of interviews with independent producers and individuals involved with the TV channels concerning the awareness of comprehensive programming channels, it could not be ascertained whether it is difficult to produce programs dealing with diverse items and genres, because programming autonomy has been distorted by capital or the advertisement market. In this circumstance, it is not surprising that some comprehensive programming channels mentioned that they prioritize profit and performance in programming. In conclusion, it is absolutely imperative that complementary and legal measures be implemented institutionally in order to redress the existing systematic dysfunctional routines in the independent productions of the comprehensive programming TV channels in Korea.