• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.103-136
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• 2014

The covered interest rate parity condition (CIRP) has been widely used in open macroeconomic analysis, risk management, exchange rate forecasts, and so forth. Due to the recent global financial crises, there have been remarkable changes in the financial markets of the emerging markets. These changes possibly influenced the dynamics of the covered interest rate parity condition. In this paper, we investigate whether the CIRP dynamics has changed, and what is the nature of the regime changes. To do this, we propose and estimate multiple-state Markov regime switching models using a Bayesian MCMC method. Our estimation results indicate that the default risk or the deviation from the CIRP has been decreased after the crisis. It seems to be associated with the more active interaction between the short-term bond market and the short-term foreign exchange market than before. The tightened relation of these two financial markets is caused by the arbitrage transaction of foreign investors.

• Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.296-300
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• 2011

It's well known that housing is one of the largest holdings in household wealth and at the same time the majority of households highly concentrate on it for their wealth accumulation. Coupled with a low interest rate and increasing housing price, the rationale is conspicuous and the propensity to debt-financed consumption becomes strengthened. This research was to examine the risk of home financing. In doing so, the study utilized several secondary data to identify the characteristics of households who finance loans for home buying in three regions of the nation - so-called Bubble 7, Seoul Metropolitan Area, and others. Based on the 2009 KB survey, the major findings were as follows: the majority of the studied households in Seoul Metropolitan Area who owned a house lived in rental housing, housing accounted for 89% of the household wealth, and home loans taken on were a ballon payment amortized for a short-term period (5 years) with an adjustable interest rate. In addition, the payment method most of the households depend on is income. The financing mechanism fueled debt load of the households, and further they are financially very vulnerable to such factors as increase in interest rate, unemployment and market downturn. In the absence of understanding the financial system, the consumption behavior leads to house-poor, so that financial accountability and ethics are addressed while the intervention of the government in home financing system should be more cautious but stimulate financial soundness in household wealth accumulation.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-34
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• 2010

We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.157-177
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• 1996

Because of the liberalization of Korean financial markets, domestic commercial banks are exposed to various risks including interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk. Therefore, asset liability management, developed to manage the risks and profitability of financial institutes systematically, is considered prerequisite for the success in more and more competitive financial environments. However, developing a high value-added software is not easy work because of the lack of domain knowlege and ever-changing financial environments. In this paper, we present a computer model for asset liability management systems. A prototype system is implemented by using Visual Basic 3.0 (professional version) and Access database, based on the 3-tiered client/server model.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.71-85
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

• Quality Improvement in Health Care
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.29-37
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• 2016

Readmission which reflects capacity to manage patients and general level of medical services has been known for one of the causes of medical expenditure due to inefficient service. Compared to disease-specific readmission, hospital wide readmission (HWR) is relatively easy to understand, and has merit to get over limitation of collateral medical services assessment; therefore, a growing interest in development and usage of readmission indicator as quality of care indicator focusing on all-disease is detected. In this study, we investigate current state of risk standardized readmission rate indicator used in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada, and examine the considerations when using readmission rate as quality indicator in Korea. Differences in risk-adjustment methods were showed among countries. The United States do not control race not to hide socio-demographic factors on readmission. Canada shows differentiation compared to other countries about reflecting community factors. All three-countries utilize readmission rate as monitoring quality of care rather than incentives or penalty due to the fact that readmission rate could not represent the whole quality of hospital and has a limitation at controlling socio-economic factors. Therefore, for usage readmission rate as quality indicator in Korea, preparing readmission classification standard for Korean medical environment and additional methods for acquiring information by using discharge summary is need. Moreover, continued discussion with clinical specialists is needed for obtain clinical reliability and validity.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.416-427
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• 2018

As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.1 s.29
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• pp.168-175
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• 2006

Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2006

In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.31-44
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically interaction among the financing decision, investment decision, and profitability by using 41 fisheries corporations in Korea, and to suggest implications of the empirical results for government's financial policy for fisheries corporations. Sample period is 19 years from 1982 till 2000. This analysis method employs the two stage least squares(2SLS) estimation method. From the results of regression analysis by 2SLS estimation method, the adjusted $R^2$ values were high and the overall F values indicated significant. The empirical results of this study are as follows; (1) determinant factors of capital structure model for fisheries are profitability, firm-size, fisheries investment of total asset, and business risk. As pecking order theory explains, the higher is profitability the lower is debt ratio. The larger firm-size, the higher is debt ratio. The higher is fisheries investment of total asset and business risk, the higher is debt ratio. (2) determinant factors of investment model for fisheries are the change of sales, business risk, and debt ratio. These factors have positive relation to fisheries investment of total asset (3) determinant factors of profitability model for fisheries are fisheries investment of total asset and debt ratio. These factors have negative relation to profitability. On the basis of analysis results, on the government's financial policy for fisheries corporations, I suggests that with interest rate reduction, the government should lend more funds to solve the crisis in the financial structure of the fisheries firms