• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.73-80
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• 2024

In this paper, we proposes a method to improve the accuracy of predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) by combining topic modeling and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. In this paper, we use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) technique to extract ten major topics related to interest rate increases and decreases from financial news data. The extracted topics, along with historical KOSPI index data, are input into an LSTM model to predict the KOSPI index. The proposed model has the characteristic of predicting the KOSPI index by combining the time series prediction method by inputting the historical KOSPI index into the LSTM model and the topic modeling method by inputting news data. To verify the performance of the proposed model, this paper designs four models (LSTM_K model, LSTM_KNS model, LDA_K model, LDA_KNS model) based on the types of input data for the LSTM and presents the predictive performance of each model. The comparison of prediction performance results shows that the LSTM model (LDA_K model), which uses financial news topic data and historical KOSPI index data as inputs, recorded the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), demonstrating the best predictive performance.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.239-276
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• 2009

The paper investigates the possible relationship between earnings prediction by security analysts and special ownership ties that link security companies those analysts belong to and firms under analysis. "Security analysts" are known best for their role as information producers in stock markets where imperfect information is prevalent and transaction costs are high. In such a market, changes in the fundamental value of a company are not spontaneously reflected in the stock price, and the security analysts actively produce and distribute the relevant information crucial for the price mechanism to operate efficiently. Therefore, securing the fairness and accuracy of information they provide is very important for efficiencyof resource allocation as well as protection of investors who are excluded from the special relationship. Evidence of systematic distortion of information by the special tie naturally calls for regulatory intervention, if found. However, one cannot presuppose the existence of distorted information based on the common ownership between the appraiser and the appraisee. Reputation effect is especially cherished by security firms and among analysts as indispensable intangible asset in the industry, and the incentive to maintain good reputation by providing accurate earnings prediction may overweigh the incentive to offer favorable rating or stock recommendation for the firms that are affiliated by common ownership. This study shares the theme of existing literature concerning the effect of conflict of interests on the accuracy of analyst's predictions. This study, however, focuses on the potential conflict of interest situation that may originate from the Korea-specific ownership structure of large conglomerates. Utilizing an extensive database of analysts' reports provided by WiseFn(R) in Korea, we perform empirical analysis of potential relationship between earnings prediction and common ownership. We first analyzed the prediction bias index which tells how optimistic or friendly the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings. It is shown that there exists no statistically significant relationship between the prediction bias and common ownership. This is a rather surprising result since it is observed that the frequency of positive prediction bias is higher with such ownership tie. Next, we analyzed the prediction accuracy index which shows how accurate the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings regardless of its sign. It is also concluded that there is no significant association between the accuracy ofearnings prediction and special relationship. We interpret the results implying that market discipline based on reputation effect is working in Korean stock market in the sense that security companies do not seem to be influenced by an incentive to offer distorted information on affiliated firms. While many of the existing studies confirm the relationship between the ability of the analystand the accuracy of the analyst's prediction, these factors cannot be controlled in the above analysis due to the lack of relevant data. As an indirect way to examine the possibility that such relationship might have distorted the result, we perform an additional but identical analysis based on a sub-sample consisting only of reports by best analysts. The result also confirms the earlier conclusion that the common ownership structure does not affect the accuracy and bias of earnings prediction by the analyst.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

In modern society, various crimes is occurred. It is necessary to predict the criminal in order to prevent crimes, various studies on the prediction of crime is in progress. Crime-related data, is announced to the statistical processing of once a year from the Public Prosecutor's Office. However, relative to the current point in time, data that has been statistical processing is a data of about two years ago. It does not fit to the data of the crime currently being generated. In This paper, crime prediction data was apply with Naver trend data. By using the Web traffic Naver trend, it is possible to obtain the data of interest level for crime currently being generated. It was constructed a modeling that can predict the crime by using traffic data of the Naver web search. There have been applied to Markov chains prediction theory. Among various crimes, murder, arson, rape, predictive modeling was applied to target. And the result of predictive modeling value was analyzed. As a result, it got the same results within 20%, based on the value of crime that actually occurred. In the future, it plan to advance research for the predictive modeling of crime that takes into the characteristics of the season.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.745-760
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• 2021

Prediction of a stock price has been a subject of interest for a long time in financial markets, and thus, many studies have been conducted in various directions. As the efficient market hypothesis introduced in the 1970s acquired supports, it came to be the majority opinion that it was impossible to predict stock prices. However, recent advances in predictive models have led to new attempts to predict the future prices. Here, we summarize past studies on the price prediction by evaluation measures, and predict the direction of stock prices of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and NAVER by applying various machine learning models. In addition to widely used technical indicator variables, accounting indicators such as Price Earning Ratio and Price Book-value Ratio and outputs of the hidden Markov Model are used as predictors. From the results of our analysis, we conclude that no models show significantly better accuracy and it is not possible to predict the direction of stock prices with models used. Considering that the models with extra predictors show relatively high test accuracy, we may expect the possibility of a meaningful improvement in prediction accuracy if proper variables that reflect the opinions and sentiments of investors would be utilized.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.3B
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• pp.279-289
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• 2006

The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.216-219
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• 2012

Structure-based drug design possibly benefit from in silico methods that precisely predict the binding affinity of small molecules to target macromolecules. There are many limitations arise from the difficulty of predicting the binding affinity of a small molecule to a biological target with the current scoring functions. There is thus a strong interest in novel methodologies based on MD simulations that claim predictions of greater accuracy than current scoring functions, helpful for a regular use designed for drug discovery in the pharmaceutical industry. Herein, we report a short review on free energy calculations using MMPBSA method a useful method in structure based drug discovery.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.27-31
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• 1986

There has been a growing interest in the application of biorhythm theory to programmes of accident prevention and performance prediction. In order for biorhythm to be applie to practice its validity and reliability should be established. This paper reported the results of three different set of data, and these data were tabulated and analysed in various ways. The basic method of analysis consisted of stat- istical comparision of actual frequences of occurrence from the collected data with those frequencies which would be expected if biorhythm had no effect. The results of the occurrence data indicated that no definite evidence in support of the influence of the fundamentals could be detected. Actual frequencies of occurrence from the collected data were not significantly different them those expected assuming random occurrence.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.163-169
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• 2000

Design and developments of a propeller fan for a cooling tower have been accomplished by both numerical prediction of performance and experimental validation with a wind tunnel, Main interest lies on blade geometry of a fan for optimal design of aerodynamic performance. The present methodology for numerical estimation is commercial program, Fine/Turbo, which gives us engineering information such as flow details near the blades and flow rate of it. The numerical results are compared with precise experimental output and show good agreement. Also new proposed model of a blade with the program show improved performance relative to present running model in market.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.1037-1049
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• 2001

Considerable interest has evolved in the flow of non-Newtonian fluids in channels of noncircular cross section in compact heat exchanges. Analytical solution was developed for prediction of the flow rate and maximum velocity in steady laminar flow of any incompressible, time-independent non-Newtonian fluids in straight closed and open channels of arbitrary, but axially unchanging cross section. The geometric parameters and function of shear describing the behavior of the fluid model were evaluated for fluid flow among a bundle of rods arranged in triangular and square array. Numerical values of dimensionless maximum velocities, mean velocities, pressure-drop-flow parameters and friction factors were evaluated as a function of porosity and pitch-to-radius ratio.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.408-413
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• 2004

An experimental study has been carried out to investigate overheating of oil and bearing housing during pump operation. This problem is of particular interest in the pre diction of lifetime and failure of pump. Transient variation of oil temperature as well as bearing housing temperature is measured to study the effect of oil viscosity, oil amount, and discharge flow rate of pump. It is found that optimal oil quantity as well as proper viscosity of oil is required to keep the safe temperature level of oil and bearing housing in a pump. The oil temperature at steady state is almost not affected by discharge flow rate in the range of discharge flow rates considered in the present study.