• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.459-472
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• 2019

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.295-305
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• 2017

This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.

• 한국CDE학회논문집
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.227-234
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• 2008

The number of marine accidents have been decreased since various equipments for navigation control have been introduced to the marine vessels. However, disastrous marine accidents such as ship collisions are occurred more frequently. Therefore, IMO(International Maritime Organization) is enforcing the design requirement of structural strength for marine vessel. Also EU countries are developing new design methodologies and design tools to suggest the design guidance which can minimize the damage of commercial vessels in case of marine collision accidents. In this study, an integrated design system for the safety assessment has been presented to enhance the safety of damaged ships in marine collision accidents. The architecture of system is described by use-cases and IDEF functional analysis. Then an integrated system for safety assessment of damaged ship which is considering both damage stability and structural safety has been developed to support the ship design in early stage.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권8호
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• pp.119-126
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• 2021

The study develops methodological aspects for modeling the determining impact of modernization on the enterprise's economic security in development competitive conditions using the model of speed, stability and spaciousness of modernization. Modeling the determining impact of modernization on the enterprise's economic security in a competitive conditions involves: firstly, the formation of estimated modeling indicators in accordance with the speed, stability and spaciousness of the enterprise's modernization; secondly, establishing the weight of indicators in the assessment system using the tools of cognitive judgment; thirdly, the establishment of reference values of sound evaluation indicators; fourthly, the calculations of the integrated impact assessment of the modernization's determining impact modeling on the enterprise's ensuring economic security in a competitive conditions; fifthly, conducting calculations and analytical summarization of the results. To determine a comprehensive integrated indicator of the modernization changes impact on the competitiveness and economic security of enterprises, we use the correlation method of the calculated value with the reference value, as well as use weights for groups of calculations. Approbation of modeling of determining influence of modernization on maintenance of economic safety of the enterprise in competitive conditions of development by authors was carried out concerning such enterprises, as: JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia", SE "Ukraerorukh", SE IA "Boryspil", SE "Ukrposhta", KP "Kyivpastrans".

• 환경영향평가
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.65-70
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• 1998

ArcView와 FEMWASP 모형을 이용하여 영월유역의 현재 및 장래의 환경질을 해석하기 위한 통합적인 환경영향평가 도구를 개발하였다. 모든 입력자료와 계산 결과는 ArcView상에서 준비되어 도시되었다. ArcView내의 Avenue의 "system.execute" 명령어를 사용하여 FEMWASP과 ArcView를 통합하였다. 모델링 결과에 의하면 장래 영월호의 수질은 부영양화 상태에 이를 것으로 판단되었다. 개발된 시스템은 상수원수의 수질관리 분야의 정책의 계획이나 규제 방안을 결정하는 데 적용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제36권6호
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• pp.636-650
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• 2020

A modeling system that can consider the overall water environment and be used to integrate hydrology, water quality, and aquatic ecosystem on a watershed scale is essential to support decision-making in integrated water resources management (IWRM). In adapting imported models for evaluating the unique water environment in Korea, a platform perspective is becoming increasingly important. In this study, a modeling platform is defined as an ecosystem that continuously grows and provides sustainable values through voluntary participation- and interaction-of all stakeholders- not only experts related to model development, but also model users and decision-makers. We assessed the conceptual values provided by the IWRM modeling platform in terms of openness, transparency, scalability, and sustainability. I We also reviewed the technical aspects of functional and spatial integrations in terms of socio-economic factors and user-centered multi-scale climate-forecast information. Based on those conceptual and technical aspects, we evaluated potential modeling platforms such as Source, FREEWAT, Object Modeling System (OMS), OpenMI, Community Surface-Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS), and HydroShare. Among them, CSDMS most closely approached the values suggested in model development and offered a basic standard for easy integration of existing models using different program languages. HydroShare showed potential for sharing modeling results with the transparency expected by model user-s. Therefore, we believe that can be used as a reference in development of a modeling platform appropriate for managing the unique integrated water environment in Korea.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.123-128
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• 2007

In order to apply a static fault-tree (FT) method to a system or a plant whose configuration changes dynamically, condition gates and a post processing method are used to effectively accommodate these changes. An operator's performance change, which can be caused by these configuration changes, should also be considered to assess the risk to a plant in a more realistic manner. This study aims to develop an integrated framework to accommodate various configuration changes and their effect on an operator’s performance by using the FT model. We applied a condition-based human reliability assessment (CBHRA) method to consider various conditions endured by an operator. That is, we integrated the CBHRA method with the conventional post processing method for modeling the system configuration changes. The effect of the condition monitoring systems installed in a plant is also considered. In this study, we show an example application of the integrated framework to a probabilistic safety assessment for the shutdown phase of a nuclear power plant.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.248-257
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 배출량산정모델과 다중매질모델을 활용하여 환경오염물질의 노출도를 예측하였으며 위해도를 평가하였다. 연구대상 화학물질로써 8종(아세트알데히드(acetaldehyde), 아크릴로니트릴(acrylonitrile), 아닐린(aniline), 벤젠(benzene), 사염화탄소(carbon tetrachloride), 디클로로메탄(dichloromethane), 포름알데히드(formaldehyde), 염화비닐(vinyl chloride))의 물질을 선택하였으며, 대상지역은 공단지역을 포함하는 도심 지역을 선택하였다. 배출량은 지리지형정보를 활용하여 점배출원과 비점배출원을 동시에 고려하여 산정하였으며, 다중매질모델은 지역적 특성을 반영할 수 있는 모델을 선택하였다. 유해성 자료는 미국 환경청의 IRIS(Integrated Risk Information System) 유해성 데이터베이스를 활용하였다. 모델링 자료와 유해성 자료를 이용하여 위해성을 평가한 결과, 물질별로 위해도가 높은 지역을 발견할 수 있었으며 우선적으로 관리해야 할 물질을 선별할 수 있었다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.91-104
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 통합모형인 GCAM을 활용한 국내수송부문을 모델링에 대해 논의한다. GCAM은 IPCC 5차 보고서 평가에도 활용된, 국제적으로 널리 쓰이는 모형이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이를 국내수송부문에 그대로 적용하는 데 상당한 문제가 있다. 첫째, GCAM의 기준년도(2010년) 수송 서비스수요가 국가통계와 일치하지 않다는 점. 둘째, 수송부문 시뮬레이션 결과가 관련 부문별 서비스수요의 과거추이를 제대로 반영하고 못하고 있다는 점이다. GCAM을 활용한 국내 수송부문 모델링에서 가장 중요하게 영향을 미치는 수송서비스수요 항등식을 상세히 점검함으로써, 기준년도의 서비스수요를 국가통계와 일치시키도록 노력하였다. 또 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과가 과거 통계추이를 제대로 반영할 수 있도록 기존모형을 점검, 수정하였다. 점검 및 수정결과, 기존 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과와 어떤 부분에서 문제가 있는지, 또 수송부문별 과거 서비스 수요의 추이가 어떻게 제대로 반영되고 있는지를 상세히 보고하였다. 본 연구는 향후 수송부문의 정책, 기술평가 및 온실가스저감 대책 마련 등을 위한 시나리오 분석의 기본분석도구로 유용하게 쓰일 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.287-287
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• 2023

Surface water-groundwater interaction (SWGI) is an important hydrological process that influences both the quantity and quality of water resources. However, regional scale SWGI model calibration and uncertainty analysis have been a challenge because integrated models inherently carry a vast number of parameters, modeling assumptions, and inputs, potentially leaving little time and budget to explore questions related to model performance and forecasting. In this study, we have proposed the application of iterative ensemble smoother (IES) for uncertainty analysis and calibration of the widely used integrated surface-subsurface model, SWAT-MODFLOW. SWAT-MODFLOW integrates Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a three-dimensional finite difference model (MODFLOW). The model was calibrated using a parameter estimation tool (PEST). The major advantage of the employed IES is that the number of model runs required for the calibration of an ensemble is independent of the number of adjustable parameters. The pilot point approach was followed to calibrate the aquifer parameters, namely hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. The parameter estimation process for the SWAT model focused primarily on surface-related parameters. The uncertainties both in the streamflow and groundwater level were assessed. The work presented provides valuable insights for future endeavors in coupled surface-subsurface modeling, data collection, model development, and informed decision-making.