• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.95-108
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• 2017

Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.149-169
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• 2020

"The Urban Renewal New Deal project", one of the government's major national projects, is about developing underdeveloped areas by investing 50 trillion won in 100 locations on the first year and 500 over the next four years. This project is drawing keen attention from the media and local governments. However, the project model which fails to reflect the original characteristics of the area as it divides project area into five categories: "Our Neighborhood Restoration, Housing Maintenance Support Type, General Neighborhood Type, Central Urban Type, and Economic Base Type," According to keywords for successful urban regeneration in Korea, "resident participation," "regional specialization," "ministerial cooperation" and "public-private cooperation", when local governments propose urban regeneration projects to the government, they can see that it is most important to accurately understand the characteristics of the city and push ahead with the projects in a way that suits the characteristics of the city with the help of local residents and private companies. In addition, considering the gentrification problem, which is one of the side effects of urban regeneration projects, it is important to select and implement urban regeneration types suitable for the characteristics of the area. In order to supplement the limitations of the 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project' methodology, this study aims to propose a system that recommends urban regeneration types suitable for urban regeneration sites by utilizing various machine learning algorithms, referring to the urban regeneration types of the '2025 Seoul Metropolitan Government Urban Regeneration Strategy Plan' promoted based on regional characteristics. There are four types of urban regeneration in Seoul: "Low-use Low-Level Development, Abandonment, Deteriorated Housing, and Specialization of Historical and Cultural Resources" (Shon and Park, 2017). In order to identify regional characteristics, approximately 100,000 text data were collected for 22 regions where the project was carried out for a total of four types of urban regeneration. Using the collected data, we drew key keywords for each region according to the type of urban regeneration and conducted topic modeling to explore whether there were differences between types. As a result, it was confirmed that a number of topics related to real estate and economy appeared in old residential areas, and in the case of declining and underdeveloped areas, topics reflecting the characteristics of areas where industrial activities were active in the past appeared. In the case of the historical and cultural resource area, since it is an area that contains traces of the past, many keywords related to the government appeared. Therefore, it was possible to confirm political topics and cultural topics resulting from various events. Finally, in the case of low-use and under-developed areas, many topics on real estate and accessibility are emerging, so accessibility is good. It mainly had the characteristics of a region where development is planned or is likely to be developed. Furthermore, a model was implemented that proposes urban regeneration types tailored to regional characteristics for regions other than Seoul. Machine learning technology was used to implement the model, and training data and test data were randomly extracted at an 8:2 ratio and used. In order to compare the performance between various models, the input variables are set in two ways: Count Vector and TF-IDF Vector, and as Classifier, there are 5 types of SVM (Support Vector Machine), Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Gradient Boosting. By applying it, performance comparison for a total of 10 models was conducted. The model with the highest performance was the Gradient Boosting method using TF-IDF Vector input data, and the accuracy was 97%. Therefore, the recommendation system proposed in this study is expected to recommend urban regeneration types based on the regional characteristics of new business sites in the process of carrying out urban regeneration projects."

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.147-168
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• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.283-292
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• 2017

In this study, the empirical models were established to estimate the concentrations of surface-level $PM_{2.5}$ over Seoul, Korea from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013. We used six different multiple linear regression models with aerosol optical thickness (AOT), ${\AA}ngstr{\ddot{o}}m$ exponents (AE) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua satellites, meteorological data, and planetary boundary layer depth (PBLD) data. The results showed that $M_6$ was the best empirical model and AOT, AE, relative humidity (RH), wind speed, wind direction, PBLD, and air temperature data were used as input data. Statistical analysis showed that the result between the observed $PM_{2.5}$ and the estimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations using $M_6$ model were correlations (R=0.62) and root square mean error ($RMSE=10.70{\mu}gm^{-3}$). In addition, our study show that the relation strongly depends on the seasons due to seasonal observation characteristics of AOT, with a relatively better correlation in spring (R=0.66) and autumntime (R=0.75) than summer and wintertime (R was about 0.38 and 0.56). These results were due to cloud contamination of summertime and the influence of snow/ice surface of wintertime, compared with those of other seasons. Therefore, the empirical multiple linear regression model used in this study showed that the AOT data retrieved from the satellite was important a dominant variable and we will need to use additional weather variables to improve the results of $PM_{2.5}$. Also, the result calculated for $PM_{2.5}$ using empirical multi linear regression model will be useful as a method to enable monitoring of atmospheric environment from satellite and ground meteorological data.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.8
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• pp.292-309
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• 2016

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the effects of stress and depression experienced by the first (1955-1964) and second (1968-1974) generations of baby boomers on their psychological well-being as well as the moderation effects of social supports for them. For this purpose, 369 who come under the category of the first- and second-generation baby boomers were selected by convenient sampling from among the participants in the programs of the life-long educational institutes in Seoul metropolitan area and questionnaires of self-administered type were distributed to them. Frequency analysis, t-test, ANOVA, correlation analysis and hierarchial regression analysis which used input of mean-centered variables and interaction term were conducted to determine the moderating effects of social supports based on the replies to the questionnaires. The major outcomes of the analyses could be summed up as follows: first, the stress and depression suffered by the first and second generations of baby boomers turned out to have negative (-) influence upon their psychological well-being; second, the social supports for those two generations were found to exercise positive (+) effects upon their psychological well-being; and third, a survey of difference in the moderating effects of social supports between the first- and second-generation baby boomers showed that, in case of the first generation, the worse their economic status and the higher their stress and depression were, the lower their psychological well-being tended to be and that social supports functioned to hike their psychological well-being but had moderating effects only in connection with stress. In case of the second generation, however, it was shown that the higher their stress and depression got, the lower their psychological well-being developed and that social supports might increase their psychological well-being but without any moderating effects on the part of relationship with their stress and depression. A practical and political method was discussed to improve baby boomers mental health.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.3
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• pp.320-329
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• 2017

This study aims to evaluate whether the accuracy of LiDAR DEM is affected by the changes of the five input levels ('1','3','5','7' and '9') of median parameter ($F_{md}$), mean parameter ($F_{mn}$) of the Filtering Algorithm (FA) in the GroundFilter module and median parameter ($I_{md}$), mean parameter ($I_{mn}$) of the Interpolation Algorithm (IA) in the GridSurfaceCreate module of the FUSION in order to present the combination of parameter levels producing the most accurate LiDAR DEM. The accuracy is measured by the residuals calculated by difference between the field elevation values and their corresponding DEM elevation values. A multi-way ANOVA is used to statistically examine whether there are effects of parameter level changes on the means of the residuals. The Tukey HSD is conducted as a post-hoc test. The results of the multi- way ANOVA test show that the changes in the levels of $F_{md}$, $F_{mn}$, $I_{mn}$ have significant effects on the DEM accuracy with the significant interaction effect between $F_{md}$ and $F_{mn}$. Therefore, the level of $F_{md}$, $F_{mn}$, and the interaction between two variables are considered to be factors affecting the accuracy of LiDAR DEM as well as the level of $I_{mn}$. As the results of the Tukey HSD test on the combination levels of $F_{md}{\ast}F_{mn}$, the mean of residuals of the '$9{\ast}3$' combination provides the highest accuracy while the '$1{\ast}1$' combination provides the lowest one. Regarding $I_{mn}$ levels, the mean of residuals of the both '3' and '1' provides the highest accuracy. This study can contribute to improve the accuracy of the forest attributes as well as the topographic information extracted from the LiDAR data.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.111-144
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• 2011

This study is to confirm the core factors of innovative capabilities and technological entrepreneurship affecting the performance of technology management and business management of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Through the consideration about the complex natures of technological innovation affecting by multidimensional factors, this study designs the research model that innovative capabilities, the performances of technology and business management are arranged in accordance with the innovation process; input-output-outcome. To meet this research purpose, the hypothesis are set up based on the previous research studies and the research samples are selected from members of the Innovative Business (INNO-BIZ) Association, located in Seoul and Geyonggi province. As a result of regression analysis to the responses gathered from 360 firms, the performance of business management is influenced positively by the technology superiority, market growth and business profitability which are the dominant factors of performance of technology management. In addition, three sub-variables of innovative capabilities such as R&D, strategic planning and learning capability, have positive effects on both the managerial performances. Innovativeness and progressiveness of technological entrepreneurship affect both the performances positively. Moreover, the co-relation between technological entrepreneurship of an innovation leader and innovative capabilities of organizational members are identified. Lastly, technological entrepreneurship has the mediating effect on the path of leading innovative capabilities to the managerial performances. In conclusion, the research results imply that technological innovation-type firms should periodically evaluate the performance of technology management which are the output of technological innovations and the reinvestment for ultimate business success. And improving and developing innovative capabilities and technological entrepreneurship is required to continuously and consistently investing and supporting resources on technological innovations at the firm-and government-level. It is considered that these are the crucial methods for securing the technologically competitive advantage of SMEs with less resources and narrow innovation range.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.263-271
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• 1995

Chemical assessment of soil pollution with heavy metals was made by analyzing the changes in pH, ionic strength, cationic concentration and chemical species in the soil solution. Saturated pastes of the unpolluted soils were made by adding solutions containing Cu or Cd and the final Cu or Cd concentrations were in the range of 0 to 400 mg/kg. After equilibrating for 24 hours at $25^{\circ}C$, the soil solution was extracted from the saturated pastes by the vacuum extraction method and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity, Cu, Cd, cations and inorganic ligands. Chemical species in soil solution were calculated by the GEOCHEM-PC program employing the input variables of pH, ionic strength(${\mu}$), molar concentrations of cations and ligands. Increasing Cu or Cd additions lowered pH of the soil solution but increased concentrations of Ca, Mg and K resulting in increases of ${\mu}$ of the soil solution. Effects of Cu on lowering pH and increasing ${\mu}$ were greater than those of Cd. Concentrations of Cu or Cd in soil solution were relatively very low as compared to those of additions, but increased linearly with increasing additions representing that concentrations of Cu were higher than those of Cd. At 400 mg/kg additions, concentrations of Cu were in the range of 0.51 to 11.70 mg/L but those of Cd were 34.4 to 88.5 mg/L. Major species of Ca, Mg and K were free ions and these species were equivalent to greater than 95 molar % of the existing respective molar concentrations. These cationic species were not changed by Cu or Cd additions. Major species of Cu in lower pH soils such as SiCL and SL were free $Cu^{2+}$ (>95 molar %), but those in LS having a higher pH were free $Cu^{2-}$ and Cu-hydroxide complex. At 100 mg Cu/kg treatment, $Cu^{2+}$ and Cu-hydroxide complex were equivalent to 73 and 22.4 molar %, respectively. These respective percentages were decreased and increased correspondingly with increasing Cu treatments. Major species of Cd in soil solution were free $Cd^{2+}$ and Cd-chloride complex, representing 79 to 85 molar % for $Cd^{2+}$ and 13 to 20% for Cd-chloride complex at 10 mg Cd/kg treatment. With increasing Cd additions to 400 mg/kg, $Cd^{2+}$ species decreased to $40{\sim}47%$ but Cd-chloride complexes increased to $53{\sim}60$ molar %. These results demonstrated that soil contamination with heavy metals caused an adverse effect on the plant nutritional aspects of soil solution by lowering pH, increasing cations temporarily, and increasing free metal concentrations and species enough to be phytotoxic.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.157-184
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• 2010

Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.