• Title/Summary/Keyword: Inflow Forecasting

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Real-time Flood Forecasting Model Based on the Condition of Soil Moisture in the Watershed (유역토양수분 추적에 의한 실시간 홍수예측모형)

  • 김태철;박승기;문종필
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 1995
  • One of the most difficult problem to estimate the flood inflow is how to understand the effective rainfall. The effective rainfall is absolutely influenced by the condition of soil moisture in the watershed just before the storm event. DAWAST model developed to simulate the daily streamflow considering the meteologic and geographic characteristics in the Korean watersheds was applied to understand the soil moisture and estimate the effective rainfall rather accurately through the daily water balance in the watershed. From this soil moisture and effective rainfall, concentration time, dimensionless hydrograph, and addition of baseflow, the rainfall-runoff model for flood flow was developed by converting the concept of long-term runoff into short-term runoff. And, real-time flood forecasting model was also developed to forecast the flood-inflow hydrograph to the river and reservoir, and called RETFLO model. According to the model verification, RETFLO model can be practically applied to the medium and small river and reservoir to forecast the flood hydrograph with peak discharge, peak time, and volume. Consequently, flood forecasting and warning system in the river and the reservoir can be greatly improved by using personal computer.

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DEVELOPMENT OF A REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM BY HYDRAULIC FLOOD ROUTING

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Lee, Do-Hun;Jeong, Sang-Man;Lee, Eun-Tae
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2001
  • The objective of this study is to develop a prediction mode for a flood forecasting system in the downstream of the Nakdong river basin. Ranging from the gauging station at Jindong to the Nakdong estuary barrage, the hydraulic flood routing model(DWOPER) based on the Saint Venant equation was calibrated by comparing the calculated river stage with the observed river stages using four different flood events recorded. The upstream boundary condition was specified by the measured river stage data at Jindong station and the downstream boundary condition was given according to the tide level data observed at he Nakdong estuary barrage. The lateral inflow from tributaries were estimated by the rainfall-runoff model. In the calibration process, the optimum roughness coefficients for proper functions of channel reach and discharge were determined by minimizing the sum of the differences between the observed and the computed stage. In addition, the forecasting lead time on the basis of each gauging station was determined by a numerical simulation technique. Also, we suggested a model structure for a real-time flood forecasting system and tested it on the basis of past flood events. The testing results of the developed system showed close agreement between the forecasted and observed stages. Therefore, it is expected that the flood forecasting system we developed can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting on the Nakdong river.

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Development of Real-Time Forecasting and Management System for the Youngsan Estuary Dam (영산강 하구둑 실시간 홍수예보 및 관리시스템 개발)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Park, Seung-Woo;Her, Young-Gu;Park, Chang-Eun;Kang, Moon-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.285-288
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    • 2002
  • For real-time flood forecasting and effective control flood at the Youngsan estuary dam, the Flood Forecasting and Control User Interface System II (FFCUS II) has been developed. This paper describes the features and application of FFCUS II. FFCUS II is composed of the database management subsystem, the model subsystem, and the graphic user interface. The database management subsyem collects rainfall data and stream flow data, updates, processes, and searches the data. The model subsystem predicts the inflow hydrograph, the tide, forecasts flood hydrograph, and simulates the release rate from the sluice gates. The graphic user interface subsystem aids the user's decision-making process by displaying the operation results of the database management subsystem and model subsystem.

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River Flow Forecasting Model for the Youngsan Estuary Reservoir Operation(III) - Pronagation of Flood Wave by Sluice Gate Operations - (영산호 운영을 위한 홍수예보모형의 개발(III) -배수갑문 조절에 의한 홍수파의 전달-)

  • 박창언;박승우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.13.2-20
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    • 1995
  • An water balance model was formulated to simulate the change in water levels at the estuary reservoir from sluice gate releases and the inflow hydrographs, and an one-di- mensional flood routing model was formulated to simulate temporal and spatial varia- tions of flood hydrographs along the estuarine river. Flow rates through sluice gates were calibrated with data from the estuary dam, and the results were used for a water balance model, which did a good job in predicting the water level fluctuations. The flood routing model which used the results from two hydrologic models and the water balance model simulated hydrographs that were in close agreement with the observed data. The flood forecasting model was found to be applicable to real-time forecasting of water level fluc- tuations with reasonable accuracies.

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Numerical forecasting of sea fog at West sea in spring (봄철 서해안 해무의 수치예보)

  • Han, Kyoung-Keun;Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this case study is to determine the possibility of Numerical Forecasting of sea fog at West Sea in spring time. For practical method of analyzing the data collected from 24th to 26th March 2003, Numerical Weather Prediction model MM5(Mesoscale Model Version 5) and synoptic field study using synoptic chart, upper level chart, and sea surface temperature were employed. The results of synoptic field analysis summarized that sea fog at West sea in spring is intensified by the inflow of the warm flow from west or southwest, low sea surface temperature to increase the temperature difference between air and sea surface, and inversion layer to disturb the disperse. It appears that the possibility of sea fog forecasting by MM5, in view of the result that the MM5 output is similar to the synoptic fields analysis.

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Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting of Short-term River Water Quality (단기 하천수질 예측을 위한 신경망모형)

  • Kim, Man-Sik;Han, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is the prediction of pollutant loads into Seomjin river watershed using neural networks model. The pollutant loads into river watershed depend upon the water quantity of inflow from the upstream as well as the water quality of the inflow into the river. For the estimation of pollutants into river, a neural networks model which has the features of multi-layered structure and parallel multi-connections is used. The used water quality parameters are BOD, COD and SS into Seomjin river. The results of calibration are satisfactory, and proved the availability of a proposed neural networks model to estimate short-term water quality pollutants into river system.

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Improvement of Mid/Long-Term ESP Scheme Using Probabilistic Weather Forecasting (확률기상예보를 이용한 중장기 ESP기법 개선)

  • Kim, Joo-Cheol;Kim, Jeong-Kon;Lee, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.10
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    • pp.843-851
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    • 2011
  • In hydrology, it is appropriate to use probabilistic method for forecasting mid/long term streamflow due to the uncertainty of input data. Through this study, it is expanded mid/long term forecasting system more effectively adding priory process function based on PDF-ratio method to the RRFS-ESP system for Guem River Basin. For implementing this purpose, weight is estimated using probabilistic weather forecasting information from KMA. Based on these results, ESP probability is updated per scenario. Through the estimated result per method, the average forecast score using ESP method is higher than that of naive forecasting and it confirmed that ESP method results in appropriate score for RRFS-ESP system. It is also shown that the score of ESP method applying revised inflow scenario using probabilistic weather forecasting is higher than that of ESP method. As a results, it will be improved the accuracy of forecasting using probabilistic weather forecasting.