• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.322-331
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• 2017

District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.64 no.4
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• pp.413-426
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• 2017

Probabilistic methods are used in engineering where a computational model contains random variables. The proposed method under development: Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC) is highly efficient in terms of computation time and solution accuracy and is mostly faster than in case of other standard probabilistic methods. The novelty of the DOProC lies in an optimized numerical integration that easily handles both correlated and statistically independent random variables and does not require any simulation or approximation technique. DOProC is demonstrated by a collection of deliberately selected simple examples (i) to illustrate the efficiency of individual optimization levels and (ii) to verify it against other highly regarded probabilistic methods (e.g., Monte Carlo). Efficiency and other benefits of the proposed method are grounded on a comparative case study carried out using both the DOProC and MC techniques. The algorithm has been implemented in mentioned software applications, and has been used effectively several times in solving probabilistic tasks and in probabilistic reliability assessment of structures. The article summarizes the principles of this method and demonstrates its basic possibilities on simple examples. The paper presents unpublished details of probabilistic computations based on this method, including a reliability assessment, which provides the user with the probability of failure affected by statistically dependent input random variables. The study also mentions the potential of the optimization procedures under development, including an analysis of their effectiveness on the example of the reliability assessment of a slender column.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.623-632
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• 2014

We shall consider the estimation for the parameter and the right tail probability in a general exponential distribution. We also shall consider the estimation of the reliability P(X < Y ) and the skewness trends of the density function of the ratio X=(X+Y) for two independent general exponential variables each having different shape parameters and known scale parameter. We then shall consider the estimation of the failure rate average and the hazard function for a general exponential variable having the density function with the unknown shape and known scale parameters, and for a bivariate density induced by the general exponential density.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.165-172
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• 1999

A probability density function of reliability function is derived in this paper, by which the stability of armor units on the rubble-mound breakwater can be studied on the probabilistic approach. To obtain the distribution, each random variable of the reliability function is assumed to follow Gaussian distribution. The distribution function of reliability function is in agreement with the histogram simulated by the Monte-Carlo method. In addition, the failure probability of armor units on the rubble-mound breakwater evaluated by the derived probability density function is shown to have the same order of magnitude as those calculated by FMA and AFDA of moment method. In particular, it is important to note that random variables of the reliability function may be considered to be statistically independent in the reliability analysis of armor units on the rubble-mound breakwater. Therefore, the present approach may be straightforwardly applicable to all of the cases that any random variables in the reliability function are controlled by other distribution functions as well as normal distribution.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.39 no.11
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• pp.1169-1174
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• 2015

Risk-Risk-based inspection (RBI) has been developed in order to identify risky equipments that can cause major accidents or damages in large-scale plants. This assessment evaluates the equipment's risk, categorizes their priorities based on risk level, and then determines the urgency of their maintenance or allocates maintenance resources. An earlier version of the risk-based assessment software is already installed within the equipment management system; however, the assessment is based on examination by an inspector, and the results can be influenced by his subjective judgment, rather than assessment being based on failure probability. Moreover, the system is housed within a server, which limits the inspector's work space and time, and such a system can be used only on site. In this paper, the development of independent risk-based assessment software is introduced; this software calculates the failure probability by an analytical method, and analyzes the field inspection results, as well as inspection effectiveness. It can also operate on site, since it can be installed on an independent platform, and has the ability to generate an I/O function for the field inspection results regarding the period for an optimum maintenance cycle. This program will provide useful information not only to the field users who are participating in maintenance, but also to the engineers who need to decide whether to extend the lifecycle of the power machinery or replace only specific components.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.76-85
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• 2003

In this study, we write down the definitions, their causes and the techniques of analysis as a theoretical consideration of common cause failures, and investigate the limitation and the importance of the common cause failures by applying to the analysis on the fire protection as a representative safety facility. As you can know in the reliability analysis, most impressive cause is the malfunctions of pumping operations; especially the common cause failure of two pumps is dominant. In other words, it is possible to assess system-reliability as twice as actual without CCF From these, CCF is extraordinarily important and the results are highly dependent on the CCF factor. And although it would increase with multiple installations, the reliability are not defined as linear with those multiplications. In addition, the differences in results due to the models for analysis are not significant, whereas the various sources of data produce highly different results. Therefore, we conclude that the reliabilities are dependent on the quality of the usable data much better than the variety of models. As a result, the basic and engineering device for the preventions of CCF of the multiple facilities is to design it as reliably as to design the fire-water pump. That is to say, we must assess those reliabilities using PFD whether they are appropriate to SIL (Safety Integrity Level) which is required for the reliability in SIS (Safety Instrumented System). The result of the analysis on the reliability of the fire-water supply with CCF shows that PFD is 3.80E-3, so that it cannot be said to be designed as safely as in the level of SIL5. However, without CCF, PFD is 1.82E-3 which means that they are designed as unsafely as before.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.29 no.2A
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• pp.147-156
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• 2004

This paper presents an implementation and performance analysis of an access channel decoder which exploits a diversity gain due to the independent magnitude of received signals energy at each of antenna elements of a smart antenna BTS (Base-station Transceiver Subsystem) operating in CDMA2000 1X signal environment. Proposed access channel decoder consists of a searcher supporting 4 fingers, Walsh demodulator, and demodulator controller. They have been implemented with 5 of 1 million-gate FPGA's (Field Programmable Gate Array) Altera's APEX EP20K1000EBC652 and TMS320C6203 DSP (digital signal processing). The objective of the proposed access channel decoders is to enhance the data retrieval at co]1-site during the access period, for which the optimal weight vector of the smart antenna BTS is not available. Through experimental tests, we confirmed that the proposed access channel decoder exploitng the diversity technique outperforms the conventional one, which is based on a single antenna channel, in terms of detection probability of access probe, access channel failure probability, and $E_{b/}$ $N_{o}$ in Walsh demodulator.r.r.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 2019

Thermal-hydraulic passive safety systems (PSSs) are incorporated into many advanced reactor designs on the bases of simplicity, economics and inherent safety nature. Several factors among which are the critical parameters (CPs) that influence failure and reliability of thermal-hydraulic (t-h) passive systems are now being explored. For simplicity, it is assumed in most reliability analyses that the CPs are independent whereas in practice this assumption is not always valid. There is need to critically examine the dependency influence of the CPs on reliability of the t-h passive systems at design stage and in operation to guarantee safety/better performance. In this paper, two multivariate analysis methods (covariance and conditional subjective probability density function) were presented and applied to a simple PSS. The methods followed a generalized procedure for evaluating t-h reliability based on dependency consideration. A passively water-cooled steam generator was used to demonstrate the dependency of the identified key CPs using the methods. The results obtained from the methods are in agreement and justified the need to consider the dependency of CPs in t-h reliability. For dependable t-h reliability, it is advisable to adopt all possible CPs and apply suitable multivariate method in dependency consideration of CPs among other factors.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.169-179
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• 2010

Satisfying the same probability of loss of control and essentially two fail operative performance with a triplex computer architecture requires a lot of modification of the conventional redundancy management design techniques, previously employed in quadruplex digital flight control computer. T-50 FCS for triplex redundancy management design applied an advanced digital flight control architecture with an I/O controller which is functionally independent of the digital computer to achieve the same reliability and special failure analysis and isolation schemes for fail operational goals with a triplex configuration. The analysis results indicated that the triplex flight control system is to satisfy the safety requirement utilizing the advanced flight control techniques and the system performance of the implemented flight control system was verified by failure mode effect test.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.107-117
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• 2022

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.