• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2019

Recently, since responding to meteorological changes depending on increasing greenhouse gas and electricity demand, the importance prediction of photovoltaic power (PV) is rapidly increasing. In particular, the prediction of PV power generation may help to determine a reasonable price of electricity, and solve the problem addressed such as a system stability and electricity production balance. However, since the dynamic changes of meteorological values such as solar radiation, cloudiness, and temperature, and seasonal changes, the accurate long-term PV power prediction is significantly challenging. Therefore, in this paper, we propose PV power prediction model based on deep learning that can be improved the PV power prediction performance by learning to use meteorological and seasonal information. We evaluate the performances using the proposed model compared to seasonal ARIMA (S-ARIMA) model, which is one of the typical time series methods, and ANN model, which is one hidden layer. As the experiment results using real-world dataset, the proposed model shows the best performance. It means that the proposed model shows positive impact on improving the PV power forecast performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.33-49
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• 2018

The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.117-137
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• 2009

Recently, intelligent traffic information systems have enabled people to forecast traffic conditions before hitting the road. These convenient systems operate on the basis of data reflecting current road and traffic conditions as well as distance-based data between locations. Thanks to the rapid development of ubiquitous computing, tremendous context data have become readily available making vehicle route planning easier than ever. Previous research in relation to optimization of vehicle route planning merely focused on finding the optimal distance between locations. Contexts reflecting the road and traffic conditions were then not seriously treated as a way to resolve the optimal routing problems based on distance-based route planning, because this kind of information does not have much significant impact on traffic routing until a a complex traffic situation arises. Further, it was also not easy to take into full account the traffic contexts for resolving optimal routing problems because predicting the dynamic traffic situations was regarded a daunting task. However, with rapid increase in traffic complexity the importance of developing contexts reflecting data related to moving costs has emerged. Hence, this research proposes a framework designed to resolve an optimal route planning problem by taking full account of additional moving cost such as road traffic cost and weather cost, among others. Recent technological development particularly in the ubiquitous computing environment has facilitated the collection of such data. This framework is based on the contexts of time, traffic, and environment, which addresses the following issues. First, we clarify and classify the diverse contexts that affect a vehicle's velocity and estimates the optimization of moving cost based on dynamic programming that accounts for the context cost according to the variance of contexts. Second, the velocity reduction rate is applied to find the optimal route (shortest path) using the context data on the current traffic condition. The velocity reduction rate infers to the degree of possible velocity including moving vehicles' considerable road and traffic contexts, indicating the statistical or experimental data. Knowledge generated in this papercan be referenced by several organizations which deal with road and traffic data. Third, in experimentation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed context-based optimal route (shortest path) between locations by comparing it to the previously used distance-based shortest path. A vehicles' optimal route might change due to its diverse velocity caused by unexpected but potential dynamic situations depending on the road condition. This study includes such context variables as 'road congestion', 'work', 'accident', and 'weather' which can alter the traffic condition. The contexts can affect moving vehicle's velocity on the road. Since these context variables except for 'weather' are related to road conditions, relevant data were provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. The 'weather'-related data were attained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The aware contexts are classified contexts causing reduction of vehicles' velocity which determines the velocity reduction rate. To find the optimal route (shortest path), we introduced the velocity reduction rate in the context for calculating a vehicle's velocity reflecting composite contexts when one event synchronizes with another. We then proposed a context-based optimal route (shortest path) algorithm based on the dynamic programming. The algorithm is composed of three steps. In the first initialization step, departure and destination locations are given, and the path step is initialized as 0. In the second step, moving costs including composite contexts into account between locations on path are estimated using the velocity reduction rate by context as increasing path steps. In the third step, the optimal route (shortest path) is retrieved through back-tracking. In the provided research model, we designed a framework to account for context awareness, moving cost estimation (taking both composite and single contexts into account), and optimal route (shortest path) algorithm (based on dynamic programming). Through illustrative experimentation using the Wilcoxon signed rank test, we proved that context-based route planning is much more effective than distance-based route planning., In addition, we found that the optimal solution (shortest paths) through the distance-based route planning might not be optimized in real situation because road condition is very dynamic and unpredictable while affecting most vehicles' moving costs. For further study, while more information is needed for a more accurate estimation of moving vehicles' costs, this study still stands viable in the applications to reduce moving costs by effective route planning. For instance, it could be applied to deliverers' decision making to enhance their decision satisfaction when they meet unpredictable dynamic situations in moving vehicles on the road. Overall, we conclude that taking into account the contexts as a part of costs is a meaningful and sensible approach to in resolving the optimal route problem.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.51-69
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.159-173
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• 2017

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) - Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) system was applied to investigate the influence of major point sources located in Chungcheongnam-do (CN) on surface $PM_{2.5}$ (Particulate Matter of which diameter is $2.5{\mu}m$ or less) concentrations in its surrounding areas. Uncertainties associated with contribution estimations were examined through cross-comparison of modeling results using various combinations of model inputs and setups; two meteorological datasets developed with WRF for 2010 and 2014, and two domestic emission inventories for 2010 and 2013 were used to estimate contributions of major point sources in CN. The results show that contributions of major point sources in CN to annual $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations over Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, and CN ranged $0.51{\sim}1.63{\mu}g/m^3$, $0.71{\sim}1.62{\mu}g/m^3$, $0.63{\sim}1.66{\mu}g/m^3$, and $1.04{\sim}1.86{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively, depending on meteorology and emission inventory choice. It indicates that the contributions over the surrounding areas can be affected by model inputs significantly. Nitrate was the most dominant $PM_{2.5}$ component that was increased by major point sources in CN followed by sulfate, ammonium, and others. Based on the model simulations, it was estimated that primary $PM_{2.5}$ $(PPM)-to-PM_{2.5}$ conversion rates were 41.3~50.7 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 12.4~18.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi, respectively. In addition, spatial gradients of PPM contributions show very steep trends. $NO_X$-to-nitrate conversion rates were 7.61~12.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 3.94~11.3 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for the sub-regions in the SMA. $SO_2$-to-sulfate conversion rates were 4.04~5.28 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for CN, and 3.73~4.43 ($10^{-6}{\mu}g/m^3/TPY$) for the SMA, respectively.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.141-160
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• 2020

This study provides a new perspective on the effect of social media marketing activities (SMMA) on purchase intention in Korean cosmetic firms. The increasing use of social media has changed how firms engage their brand with consumers. This phenomenon triggered a need for this research to examine further the influence of SMMA on social brand engagement (SBE), brand equity (BE), and purchase intention (PI). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of SMMA on purchase intention in Korean cosmetic firms with brand equity and social brand engagement. The factors of SMMA were identified based on previous literature reviews that have an impact on social media marketing activity. To empirically test the effects of SMMA, this study conducted a questionnaire survey on 219 social media users for data analysis out of the initial 332 survey data. The results reveal that all five SMMA elements are positively related to BE, SBE, and PI. The study enables cosmetic brands to forecast the future purchasing behavior of their customers more accurately and brings clarity to manage their assets and marketing activities as well.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.173-185
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to develope a forecasting model to implement short-term Congestion Management Program (CMP) based on TDM strategies in Seoul. The CMP is composed of three elements: 1) setting a goal of short-term traffic management. 2) developing a model to forecast the impacts of TDM alternatives, and 3) finding TDM measures to achieve the goal To Predict the impacts of TDM alternatives, a model called SECOMM (SEoul COngestion Management Model) is developed. The model assumes that trip generation and distribution are not changing in a short term, and that only mode split and traffic assignment are affected by TDM. The model includes the parameter values calibrated by a discrete mode choice model, and roadway and transit networks with 1,020 zones. As a TDM measure implement, it affects mode choice behavior first and then the speeds of roadway network. The chanced speed again affects the mode choice behavior and the roadway speeds. These steps continue until the network is equilibrated. The study recommends that CMP be introduced in Seoul, and that road way conditions be monitored regularly to secure the prediction accuracy of SECOMM. Also, TDM should be the major Policy tools in removing short-term congestion problems in a big city.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.88-97
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• 2023

The purpose of this study is to forecast future changes in the construction market following the reorganization of the construction production system by analyzing the possible market size in which general contractors and specialty contractors may participate in each other, and by carrying out a survey. The ratio of correlation between general construction and specialty construction industries was derived by analyzing the relevance of work area of general contractors and specialty contractors, the similarity of registration standards, and the market in which general contractors and specialty contractors may be able to mutually participate. In order to overcome the limitation of previous studies which analyze the changes in construction market based on the statistical data, and to analyze in more detail the impact of reorganization of construction production system from market participants' view, a survey targeting general contractors and specialty contractors for their willingness and method of participating in the mutual market was conducted. As a result of the survey, it was found that 52% of general contractors were willing to participate in the specialized construction market and 55.1% of specialty contractors were willing to participate in the general construction market. It was found that there was a high willingness to participate in the earthworks, reinforced concrete works, facility maintenance and management, water and sewage facility works, and interior works, and high competition is expected for projects with a scale of 500 million to less than 3 billion won. Through this study, it will be possible for general and specialty contractors to understand the changes in the construction market due to the reorganization of the construction industry production system, and to respond effectively to these changes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.115-124
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• 2023

Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC's grade was higher than PERCENTILE's, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage.