• 제목/요약/키워드: Impact Point Prediction

검색결과 77건 처리시간 0.029초

배전 계통에 연계된 분산전원의 발전량 예측 알고리즘 (Estimation of the Generating Power for Distributed Generations Interconnected with Distribution Networks)

  • 최돈만;장성일;김광호
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.327-330
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    • 2003
  • This paper proposes an estimation algorithm for the generating power of distributed generations(DG) interconnected with distribution networks. These days, DG are rapidly increasing and most of them are interconnected with distribution networks. The DG can supply power into the distribution network, which may make significant impact on fault current and the protection scheme of the interconnected distribution networks. Generally these influences of DG is proportioned as the distributed generator's power. Therefore, it is important to forecast the output power of distributed generator in PCC(point of common coupling). This paper presents the prediction method of DG's power by monitoring the current and phase difference.

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A Study of Sales Increase and/or Decrease by Campaign Using a Differential Equation Model of the Growth Phenomenon

  • Horinouchi, Kunihito;Takabayashi, Naoki;Yamamoto, Hisashi;Ohba, Masaaki
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2014
  • With society becoming more advanced and complex, the required management engineering makes essential the development of human resources that can propose solutions for problems of new phenomena from a different perspective. As an example of such phenomena, we note a consumer electronics 'Eco-point' system campaign in this study. To mitigate global warming, revitalize the economy, and encourage the adoption of terrestrial digital compatible TVs, the consumer electronics Eco-point system campaign was implemented in May 2009 in Japan. In this study, we note a model which is constant term with exponential curve with notion of the growth phenomenon (Nakagiri and Kurita, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 2002). In our study, we call this model the 'differential equation model of the growth phenomenon.' This model represents a phenomenon with a hierarchical structure for capturing the properties of n species. In this study, we propose a new model which can represent not only the impact of largescale campaigns but also seasonal factors. Accordingly, we understand the phenomenon of fluctuation of sales of some products caused by large-scale campaigns and predict the fluctuation of sales. The final goal of this study is to develop human resources that can propose provision and solution for pre-consumption and reactionary decline in demand by understanding the impact of large-scale campaigns. As the first step of this goal, our objective is to propose a new regression method with different conventional perspective that can describe the fluctuation of sales caused by large-scale campaigns and show the possibility of new management engineering education.

황강유역에서의 유역규모를 고려한 HSPF 모형의 적용성 평가 (Application Analysis of HSPF Model Considering Watershed Scale in Hwang River Basin)

  • 최현구;한건연;황보현;조완희
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.509-521
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate overall reliability and applicability of the watershed modeling for systematic management of point and non-point sources via water quality analysis and prediction of runoff discharge within watershed. Recently, runoff characteristics and pollutant characteristics have been changing in watershed by anomaly climate and urbanization. In this study, the effects of watershed scale were analyzed in runoff and water quality modeling using HSPF. In case of correlation coefficient, its range was from 0.936 to 0.984 in case A(divided - 2 small watersheds). On the other hand, its range was form 0.840 to 0.899 in case B(united - 1 watershed). In case of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, its range was from 0.718 to 0.966 in case A. On the other hand, its range was from 0.441 to 0.683 in case B. As a result, it was judged that case A was more accurate than case B. Therefore, runoff and water quality modeling in minimum watershed scale that was provided data for calibration and verification was judged to be favorable in accuracy. If optimal watershed dividing and parameter optimization using PEST in HSPF with more reliable measured data are carried out, more accurate runoff and water quality modeling will be performed.

적운 모수화 방안이 고해상도 집중호우 예측에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes with Different Horizontal Grid Sizes on Prediction of Heavy Rainfall)

  • 이재복;이동규
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2011
  • This study investigates the impact of cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) with different horizontal grid sizes on the simulation of the local heavy rainfall case over the Korean Peninsula. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-based real-time forecast system of the Joint Center for High-impact Weather and Climate Research (JHWC) is used. Three CPSs are used for sensitivity experiments: the BMJ (Betts-Miller-Janjic), GD (Grell-Devenyi ensemble), and KF (Kain-Fritsch) CPSs. The heavy rainfall case selected in this study is characterized by low-level jet and low-level transport of warm and moist air. In 27-km simulations (DM1), simulated precipitation is overestimated in the experiment with BMJ scheme, and it is underestimated with GD scheme. The experiment with KF scheme shows well-developed precipitation cells in the southern and the central region of the Korean Peninsula, which are similar to the observations. All schemes show wet bias and cold bias in the lower troposphere. The simulated rainfall in 27-km horizontal resolution has influence on rainfall forecast in 9-km horizontal resolution, so the statements on 27-km horizontal resolution can be applied to 9-km horizontal resolution. In the sensitivity experiments of CPS for DM3 (3-km resolution), the experiment with BMJ scheme shows better heavy rainfall forecast than the other experiments. The experiments with CPS in 3-km horizontal resolution improve rainfall forecasts compared to the experiments without CPS, especially in rainfall distribution. The experiments with CPS show lower LCL(Lifted Condensation Level) than those without CPS at the maximum rainfall point, and weaker vertical velocity is simulated in the experiments with CPS compared to the experiments without CPS. It means that CPS suppresses convective instability and influences mainly convective rainfall. Consequently, heavy rainfall simulation with BMJ CPS is better than the other CPSs, and even in 3-km horizontal resolution, CPS should be applied to control convective instability. This conclusion can be generalized by conducting more experiments for a variety of cases over the Korean Peninsula.

자연경관 내 개발사업에 대한 경관영향예측 시뮬레이션 (A Study on the Landscape Impact Simulation for Development Projects in Natural Landscape)

  • 신민지;신지훈
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2019
  • This study saw developed to build a landscape monitoring methodology by simulation of landscape effect prediction. A Visual landscape planning and management system has been introduced and implemented by each ministry so as to solve the problems of visual landscape destruction due to recognition on the value of natural landscape of beautiful territory and various development projects. At present, this system emphasizes the importance of the visual and perceptual aspect of the landscape however, there is a lack of techniques required for comprehensively predicting, evaluating, and managing it. Furthermore, sustainable landscape management after the completion of development projects has been inadequately carried out, as the focus has been only on consultation in the planning process of the development project in institutional performance. The viewpoint for judging the change in the visual landscape of the development plan and development project should be selected as the effective point where the development project is expected to result in a remarkable landscape change. As for the method of selecting effective viewpoints, the main viewpoints are selected by analyzing the visible area of the target viewpoint. When selecting the viewpoint centered on the viewpoint target, it was judged that it is possible to reduce the procedure of selecting and checking the existing preliminary viewpoints and widening the effective visible range. The proposed visual landscape monitoring is expected to be able to solve the existing institutional problems, and to be used when the implementers and authors of the development projects review the effects on the landscape.

강우시 비점오염원의 오염부하 특성 - 고구마 재배지를 대상으로 - (Loading Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollutants by Rainfall - Case Study with Sweet Potato Plot -)

  • 강미아;조수현;최병우;윤영삼;이재관
    • 지질공학
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.365-371
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 비점오염원의 효율적인 관리방안을 확립하기 위하여 단위재배지로부터의 오염물질 배출특성을 조사하였다. 무강우일수가 상대적으로 길었던 약 20%의 강우사상을 제외한 나머지 강우사상에 대해서는 강우량과 강우에 의한 유출수량의 상관성은 상관계수 0.92로 매우 높았으며, 유출수량이 유출계수에 미치는 영향인자로는 유출직전의 강우강도가 주요인자임을 알 수 있었다. 한편, 유출수로부터 발생하는 오염물질의 EMCs(유량가중평균농도)가 높은 강우사상의 결과로 무강우일수가 길었던 강우사상에서 무강우에 의해 건조된 토양의 영향에 기인한 것임을 알 수 있다. 유출수로부터 발생되는 TSS, BOD, COD, TN 및 TP 등의 부하량은 동일한 강우사상에서 유사한 경향을 나타내므로 부유물질을 제어함으로써 다른 오염물질의 제거도 가능할 것으로 추정된다. 따라서 강우량계급별 유출계수 만을 이용한 오염물질부하량은 많은 오차를 나타낼 것이며, 오염부하 예측시스템을 개발할 때에는 강우량, 무강우일수, 선행강우량 등을 인자로 고려한 재배지토양조건을 충분히 고려하여야 할 것이다.

얕은 감세지내의 세굴능 분포형태의 예측 (Prediction of Scour Potential Distributions in a Shallow Plunge Pool)

  • 손광익
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 1994
  • 여수로 하류부의 감세지내 세굴이 설계 기준치 이상으로 진전될 경우 여수로나 댐의 구조적 안정성을 위협하게 되는 심각한 상황이 야기되므로 감세지내의 극한 세굴깊이 예측에 대한 많은 연구들이 이루어져왔으나 감세지의 설계에 필수적인 세굴능의 분포특성에 대한 연구는 거의 이루어지지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 여수로나 관거로부터 방류되는 이 비점착성 하상에 도달되는 원형의 이상적인 모델을 개발하여 감세지 하상에서의 세굴능 분포를 측정하였다. 실험 연구결과 동일한 입사각의 경우 세굴분포는 의 수리학적 특성이나 감세지 깊이에 관계없이 실험 범위내에서는 기하학적으로 유사하다는 사실과 감세지의 설계목적만을 위한 세굴능의 분포형태는 의 입사각에 관계없이 실험 범위내에서는 하나의 식으로 표현될 수 있다는 사실을 통계학적 분석을 통하여 알아내었다. 또한 유도된 세굴분포식을 이용한 결과 실측치와 잘 일치됨을 확인하였다. 잘 일치됨을 확인하였다.

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실증규모 하수처리장에 적용된 스마트 운영시스템의 경제-환경적 기여도 평가 (Assessment on Economies-Environmental Affect of Smart Operation System(SOS) in Sewage Treatment Plant)

  • 김연권;서인석;김홍석;김지연
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2013
  • Generally, Sewage Treatment Plants(STPs) are complexes systems in which a range of physical, chemical and biological processes occur. However, their performance strongly depends on the know-how acquired by the field-engineer. Recently, in order to solve this situations, various operation and management technologies based on the Instrumentation, Control and Automation(ICA) have been developed. As a economies-environmental affect point of view, this study was for the performance evaluation and assessment of results from the Smart Operation System(SOS) in full-scale STP. The SOS in STP consisted of the process monitoring module, including real-time influent prediction and effluent simulation, and the Smart Air Control(SAC) module. According to the results from field test for 2 years, the results of economical evaluation, amount of benefits and cost saving by the SOS have shown to be much higher than that of traditional operation. Nevertheless, the removal load(kg/yr) of BOD 13.3 %, COD 28.2 %, TN 44.4 % and TP 20.8 % were increased, respectively. Remarkable improvement of removal load could be achieved after the SOS was adapted. It was concerned that the SOS offer a user friendly functionalities and cost saving needed by the field-engineers. In addition, it was expected that the results of this study would supply helpful information for design and cost saving for the SOS in full-scale STP.

초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측 (Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings)

  • 남기환;성노윤
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • TV 드라마는 타 장르에 비해 시청률과 채널 홍보 효과가 매우 크며, 한류를 통해 산업적 효과와 문화적 영향력을 확인시켜줬다. 따라서, 이와 같은 드라마의 흥행 여부를 예측하는 일은 방송 관련 산업에서 매우 중요한 부분임은 주지의 사실이다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 2003년부터 2012년까지 10년간, 지상파 채널을 통해 방송된, 총 280개의 TV 미니시리즈 드라마를 분석하였다. 이들 드라마 중 평균 시청률 상위 45개, 하위 시청률 45개를 선정하여 흥행 드라마의 시청시간 분포 (5%~100%, 11-Step) 모형을 만들었다. 이들 기준 모형과 신규 드라마의 시청시간 분포와의 이격 거리를 Euclidean/Correlation으로 측정한 유사도(Similarity)를 통해, 시청자의 초기(1~5회) 시청시간 분포로 신규 드라마의 성패 여부를 예측하는 모델을 만들었다. 또한 총 방송 시간 중 70% 이상 시청한 시청자를 열혈 시청층(이하 열혈층) 으로 분류하고, 상위/하위 드라마의 평균값과 비교하여, 신규 드라마의 흥행여부를 판별할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 연구 결과 드라마의 초반 시청자 충성도(시청시간)는 드라마의 대흥행 여부를 예측하는데 중요한 요소임을 밝혔으며, 최대 75.47%의 확률로 대흥행 드라마의 탄생을 예측할 수 있었다.

농업 소류역으로부터의 토양침식 및 유사량 시산을 위한 전산모의 모델 (I) (Digital simulation model for soil erosion and Sediment Yield from Small Agricultural Watersheds(I))

  • 권순국
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 1980
  • A deterministic conceptual erosion model which simulates detachment, entrainment, transport and deposition of eroded soil particles by rainfall impact and flowing water is presented. Both upland and channel phases of sediment yield are incorporated into the erosion model. The algorithms for the soil erosion and sedimentation processes including land and crop management effects are taken from the literature and then solved using a digital computer. The erosion model is used in conjunction with the modified Kentucky Watershed Model which simulates the hydrologic characteristics from watershed data. The two models are linked together by using the appropriate computer code. Calibrations for both the watershed and erosion model parameters are made by comparing the simulated results with actual field measurements in the Four Mile Creek watershed near Traer, Iowa using 1976 and 1977 water year data. Two water years, 1970 and 1978 are used as test years for model verification. There is good agreement between the mean daily simulated and recorded streamflow and between the simulated and recorded suspended sediment load except few partial differences. The following conclusions were drawn from the results after testing the watershed and erosion model. 1. The watershed and erosion model is a deterministic lumped parameter model, and is capable of simulating the daily mean streamflow and suspended sediment load within a 20 percent error, when the correct watershed and erosion parameters are supplied. 2. It is found that soil erosion is sensitive to errors in simulation of occurrence and intensity of precipitation and of overland flow. Therefore, representative precipitation data and a watershed model which provides an accurate simulation of soil moisture and resulting overland flow are essential for the accurate simulation of soil erosion and subsequent sediment transport prediction. 3. Erroneous prediction of snowmelt in terms of time and magnitute in conjunction with The frozen ground could be the reason for the poor simulation of streamflow as well as sediment yield in the snowmelt period. More elaborate and accurate snowmelt submodels will greatly improve accuracy. 4. Poor simulation results can be attributed to deficiencies in erosion model and to errors in the observed data such as the recorded daily streamflow and the sediment concentration. 5. Crop management and tillage operations are two major factors that have a great effect on soil erosion simulation. The erosion model attempts to evaluate the impact of crop management and tillage effects on sediment production. These effects on sediment yield appear to be somewhat equivalent to the effect of overland flow. 6. Application and testing of the watershed and erosion model on watersheds in a variety of regions with different soils and meteorological characteristics may be recommended to verify its general applicability and to detact the deficiencies of the model. Futhermore, by further modification and expansion with additional data, the watershed and erosion model developed through this study can be used as a planning tool for watershed management and for solving agricultural non-point pollution problems.

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