• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact Forecast

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Supply-Demand Forecast and Development Direction for Aggregate (골재의 수급 전망 및 개발 방향)

  • Kang, Ki-Woong;Choi, Sun-Mi;Kim, Jin-Man
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.332-333
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    • 2018
  • The master plan for aggregate supply and demand aims to ensure the feasibility viability of mid/long-term aggregate supply and demand by establishing comprehensive plans for regional groups and aggregate types. In addition, It will propose ways to reduce the environmental impact of the development of aggregates and to stabilize aggregate supply and demand across the country. Also, it will seek to promote the stable development of the construction industry through policy and related amendments.

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Development of Parking Space Forecast Model for Large Traffic-inducing Facilities Considering Surrounding Circumstance (주변 환경을 고려한 대규모 교통유발시설 주차면산정 모형개발에 관한 연구 - 판매시설을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Je jin;Oh, Seok Jin;Kim, Sung Hun;Ha, Tae Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.593-601
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    • 2017
  • With the rapid industrial development and national economic advance since 1970, the national income of Korea has sharply increased. As a result, issues regarding city expansion, urban concentration, increase in the number of registered motor vehicles, and increase in traffic have caused transportation issues such as traffic congestion and problems with parking. Especially, enforcement ordinances and rules have been established on installation and management of parking lots to solve problems with parking which are raised as social problems such as conflict with neighbors but the flexible calculation of legal parking space has the limitations because of the diversity and complex functionality of purposes of facilities. Accordingly, this study attempted to supplement such demerit of the parking space demand forecast method based on the legally required number of parking spaces and average unit requirement in the parking space supply. This study estimated the required number of parking spaces by analyzing existing literature, collecting field research data, and analyzing the factors that have an impact on the parking demand. Also, it compared the required number of parking spaces based on the average unit requirement as well as the required number of parking spaces by the forecast model based on the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked. The result was that the required number of parking space based on average unit requirement was less than the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked by 9.99%. Meanwhile, the required number of parking spaces by the forecast model was more than the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked by 4.37%. Therefore, it is believed that the parking space forecast model is more efficient than the others in estimating there quired parking space. The parking space forecast model of this study consider different environmental factors to enable practical parking demand forecast considering the local characteristics and thus supply the parking space in an efficient way.

Study on Environmental Impact and Mitigation Plan for Groundwater Outflow during Tunnel Excavation (터널 굴착시 유출 지하수에 의한 환경 영향 분석 및 개선방안)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Hun-Mi
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2008
  • It has been attempted to minimize the environmental impacts due to railroad and road constructions. But assessments of the impact for the unwanted discharges by tunneling are still poorly systematic due to lack of scientific evaluation results ; thus, the tunneling projects frequently cause wide social conflicts. The goal of this study is to provide a guideline for appropriate environmental impact forecasts, assessments, and mitigation planning of tunneling projects.

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Local Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impact in Seoul: Focused on Heat Wave Effects (서울시 기후변화 영향평가 및 적응대책 수립: 폭염영향을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eunyoung;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Lee, Jung-Won;Park, Yong-Ha;Lee, Dong-Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to $1km{\times}1km$ to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches $28.1^{\circ}C$-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.

Thermodynamic Characteristics Associated with Localized Torrential Rainfall Events in the Middle West Region of Korean Peninsula (한반도 중서부 국지성 집중호우와 관련된 열역학적 특성)

  • Jung, Sueng-Pil;Kwon, Tae-Yong;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.457-470
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    • 2014
  • Thermodynamic conditions related with localized torrential rainfall in the middle west region of Korean peninsula are examined using radar rain rate and radiosonde observational data. Localized torrential rainfall events in this study are defined by three criteria base on 1) any one of Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) hourly rainfall exceeds $30mmhr^{-1}$ around Osan, 2) the rain (> $1mmhr^{-1}$) area estimated from radar reflectivity is less than $20,000km^2$, and 3) the rain (> $10mmhr^{-1}$) cell is detected clearly and duration is short than 24 hr. As a result, 13 cases were selected during the summer season of 10 years (2004-13). It was found that the duration, the maximum rain area, and the maximum volumetric rain rate of convective cells (> $30mmhr^{-1}$) are less than 9hr, smaller than $1,000km^2$, and $15,000{\sim}60,000m^3s^{-1}$ in these cases. And a majority of cases shows the following thermodynamic characteristics: 1) Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) > $800Jkg^{-1}$, 2) Convective Inhibition (CIN) < $40Jkg^{-1}$, 3) Total Precipitable Water (TPW) ${\approx}$ 55 mm, and 4) Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) < $120m^2s^{-2}$. These cases mostly occurred in the afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions indicated that these cases were caused by strong atmospheric instability, lifting to overcome CIN, and sufficient moisture. The localized torrential rainfall occurred with deep moisture convection result from the instability caused by convective heating.

An Analysis of Aerosols Impacts on the Vertical Invigoration of Continental Stratiform Clouds (에어로솔의 대륙 층운형 구름 연직발달(Invigoration)에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Yoo-Jun;Han, Sang-Ok;Lee, Chulkyu;Lee, Seoung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Gon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.321-329
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    • 2013
  • This study examines the effect of aerosols on the vertical invigoration of continental stratiform clouds, using a dataset of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Intensive Operational Period (IOP, March 2000) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. To provide further support to our observation-based findings, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) sensitivity simulations with changing cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations have been carried out for the golden episode over SGP. First, cross correlation between observed aerosol scattering coefficient and cloud liquid water path (LWP) with a 160-minutes lag is the highest of r = 0.83 for the selected episode, which may be attributable to cloud vertical invigoration induced by an increase in aerosol loading. Modeled cloud fractions in a control run are well matched with the observation in the perspective of cloud morphology and lasting period. It is also found through a simple sensitivity with a change in CCN that aerosol invigoration (AIV) effect on stratiform cloud organization is attributable to a change in the cloud microphysics as well as dynamics such as the corresponding modification of cloud number concentrations, drop size, and latent heating rate, etc. This study suggests a possible cloud vertical invigoration even in the continental stratiform clouds due to aerosol enhancement in spite of a limited analysis based on a few observed continental cloud cases.

Satellite Image Analysis of Low-Level Stratiform Cloud Related with the Heavy Snowfall Events in the Yeongdong Region (영동 대설과 관련된 낮은 층운형 구름의 위성관측)

  • Kwon, Tae-Yong;Park, Jun-Young;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.577-589
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    • 2015
  • An unusual long-period and heavy snowfall occurred in the Yeongdong region from 6 to 14 February 2014. This event produced snowfall total of 194.8 cm and the recordbreaking 9-day snowfall duration in the 103-year local record at Gangneung. In this study, satellite-derived cloud-top brightness temperatures from the infrared channel in the atmospheric window ($10{\mu}m{\sim}11{\mu}m$) are examined to find out the characteristics of clouds related with this heavy snowfall event. The analysis results reveal that a majority of precipitation is related with the low-level stratiform clouds whose cloud-top brightness temperatures are distributed from -15 to $-20^{\circ}C$ and their standard deviations over the analysis domain (${\sim}1,000km^2$, 37 satellite pixels) are less than $2^{\circ}C$. It is also found that in the above temperature range precipitation intensity tends to increase with colder temperature. When the temperatures are warmer than $-15^{\circ}C$, there is no precipitation or light precipitation. Furthermore this relation is confirmed from the examination of some other heavy snowfall events and light precipitation events which are related with the low-level stratiform clouds. This precipitation-brightness temperature relation may be explained by the combined effect of ice crystal growth processes: the maximum in dendritic ice-crystal growth occurs at about $-15^{\circ}C$ and the activation of ice nuclei begins below temperatures from approximately -7 to $-16^{\circ}C$, depending on the composition of the ice nuclei.

A Case Study of Snowfall Event over Yeongdong Region on March 1-2, 2021 (2021년 3월 1-2일 영동지역 강설 사례 연구)

  • Bo-Yeong Ahn;Byunghwan Lim
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.119-134
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    • 2023
  • The synoptic, thermodynamic, and dynamic characteristics of a snowfall event that occurred in the Yeongdong region on March 1-2, 2021, were investigated. Surface weather charts, ERA5 reanalysis data, rawinsonde data, GK-2A satellite data, and WISSDOM data were used for analysis. The snow depth, exceeding 10 cm, was observed at four weather stations during the analysis period. The maximum snow depth (37.4 cm) occurred at Bukgangneung. According to the analysis of the weather charts, old and dry air was trapped within relatively warm, humid air in the upper atmosphere over the East Sea and adjacent Yeongdong region. This caused unstable atmospheric conditions that led to developing convective clouds and snowfall over Bukgangneung. In particular, based on the thermodynamic and kinematic vertical analysis, we suggest that strong winds attributable to the vertical gradient of potential temperature in the low layer and the development of convective instability due to cold advection played a significant role in the occurrence of snowfall in the Yeongdong region. These results were confirmed from the vertical analysis of the rawinsonde data.

Vertical Atmospheric Structure and Sensitivity Experiments of Precipitation Events Using Winter Intensive Observation Data in 2012 (2012년 겨울철 특별관측자료를 이용한 강수현상 시 대기 연직구조와 민감도 실험)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Sim, Jae-Kwan;Hwang, Yoon-Jeong;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Ha, Jong-Chul;Lee, Yong-Hee;Chung, Kwan-Young
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.187-204
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed the synoptic distribution and vertical structure about four cases of precipitation occurrences using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and upper level data of winter intensive observation to be performed by National Institute of Meteorological Research at Bukgangneung, Incheon, Boseong during 63days from 4 JAN to 6 MAR in 2012, and Observing System Experiment (OSE) using 3DVAR-WRF system was conducted to examine the precipitation predictability of upper level data at western and southern coastal regions. The synoptic characteristics of selected precipitation occurrences were investigated as causes for 1) rainfall events with effect of moisture convergence owing to low pressure passing through south sea on 19 JAN, 2) snowfall events due to moisture inflowing from yellow sea with propagation of Siberian high pressure after low pressure passage over middle northern region on 31 JAN, 3) rainfall event with effect of weak pressure trough in west low and east high pressure system on 25 FEB, 4) rainfall event due to moisture inflow according to low pressures over Bohai bay and south eastern sea on 5 MAR. However, it is identified that vertical structure of atmosphere had different characteristics with heavy rainfall system in summer. Firstly, depth of convection was narrow due to absence of moisture convergence and strong ascending air current in middle layer. Secondly, warm air advection by veering wind with height only existed in low layer. Thirdly, unstable layer was limited in the narrow depth due to low surface temperature although it formed, and also values of instability indices were not high. Fourthly, total water vapor amounts containing into atmosphere was small due to low temperature distribution so that precipitable water vapor could be little amounts. As result of OSE conducting with upper level data of Incheon and Boseong station, 12 hours accumulated precipitation distributions of control experiment and experiments with additional upper level data were similar with ones of observation data at 610 stations. Although Equitable Threat Scores (ETS) were different according to cases and thresholds, it was verified positive influence of upper level data for precipitation predictability as resulting with high improvement rates of 33.3% in experiment with upper level data of Incheon (INC_EXP), 85.7% in experiment with upper level data of Boseong (BOS_EXP), and 142.9% in experiment with upper level data of both Incheon and Boseong (INC_BOS_EXP) about accumulated precipitation more than 5 mm / 12 hours on 31 January 2012.

Developing Forecast Technique of Landslide Hazard Area by Integrating Meteorological Observation Data and Topographical Data -A Case Study of Uljin Area- (기상과 지형자료를 통합한 산사태 위험지 예측 기법 개발 -울진지역을 대상으로-)

  • Jo, Myung-Hee;Jo, Yun-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2009
  • Recently the large scale of forest disaster such as landslide and forest fire gives a very bad impact on not only forest ecosystem but also farm business so that it has became the main issue of environmental problems. In this study, the landslide hazard area forecast method was developed by considering not only the topographic thematic maps based on GIS and satellite images but also amount of rainfall data, which are very important factors of landslide. Uljin-gun was selected as the study area and the GIS weight score and overlay analysis were applied to topographical map and meteorological observation map. Finally the landslide area distribution map was constructed by considering the evaluation criteria. Also, the accuracy could be acquired by comparing the landslide hazard area forecast map and real damaged area extracted from satellite image.

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