• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.451-461
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• 2019

Medium-range forecast is highly dependent on ensemble forecast data. However, operational weather forecasters have not enough time to digest all of detailed features revealed in ensemble forecast data. To utilize the ensemble data effectively in medium-range forecasting, representative weather patterns in East Asia in this study are defined. The k-means clustering analysis is applied for the objectivity of weather patterns. Input data used daily Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly of the ECMWF ReAnalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) during 1981~2010 (30 years) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using the Explained Variance (EV), the optimal study area is defined by 20~60°N, 100~150°E. The number of clusters defined by Explained Cluster Variance (ECV) is thirty (k = 30). 30 representative weather patterns with their frequencies are summarized. Weather pattern #1 occurred all seasons, but it was about 56% in summer (June~September). The relatively rare occurrence of weather pattern (#30) occurred mainly in winter. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between weather patterns and extreme weather events such as heat wave, cold wave, and heavy rainfall as well as snowfall. The weather patterns associated with heavy rainfall exceeding 110 mm day^-1 were #1, #4, and #9 with days (%) of more than 10%. Heavy snowfall events exceeding 24 cm day^-1 mainly occurred in weather pattern #28 (4%) and #29 (6%). High and low temperature events (> 34℃ and < -14℃) were associated with weather pattern #1~4 (14~18%) and #28~29 (27~29%), respectively. These results suggest that the classification of various weather patterns will be used as a reference for grouping all ensemble forecast data, which will be useful for the scenario-based medium-range ensemble forecast in the future.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.24 no.8A
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• pp.1115-1125
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• 1999

This paper forecasts the number of GMPCS(Global Mobile Communications by Satellite) subscribers in Korea. Since GMPCS adopts nor only a new tecnology cor proved in the market yet, bot also a global service principle, it's service market involves a great deal of nucertainties in terms of technological and regulatory perspectives. This paper develops a modified diffusion which considers those uncertainties by identifying three environmental group of tactors. The parameters of the model are estimated through a scenario-based approach. By assuming a pessimistic and an optimistic scenarios with three environmental group of factors, the model forecasts 4,000 and 7,000 substcribers in the first year, and then 100,000 and 600,000 subscribers in 2005 respectively. The sensitivity analysis of the model also gives an implication of the future market growth. In the early period, regulatoyu and technological issues are found to be relatively important, but, in the later period, the interconnection issues and price-competitiveness will become increasingly important.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.407-407
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• 2019

According to Asian Development Bank report Pakistan is among water scarce countries. Climate scenario on the basis IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) revealed that annual mean temperature of Pakistan from year 2010-2019 was $17C^o$ which will rise up to $21C^o$ at the end of this century, similarly almost 10% decrease of annual rainfall is expected at the end of the century. It is a changing task in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan to meet the water demands of rapidly increasing population in a changing climate. While many studies have tackled scarcity and stream flow forecasting of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan, very few of them are related to socio-economic and climate change impact on sustainable water management of UIB. This study investigates the pattern of current and future surface water availability for various demand sites (e.g. domestic, agriculture and industrial) under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan for a period of 2010 to 2050. A state-of-the-art planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is used to analyze the dynamics of current and future water demand. The stream flow data of five sub catchment (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shoyke) and entire UIB were calibrated and validated for the year of 2006 to 2011 using WEAP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination is achieved ranging from 0.63 to 0.92. The results indicate that unmet water demand is likely to increase severe threshold and the external driving forces e.g. socio-economic and climate change will create a gap between supply and demand of water.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.249-258
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• 2006

Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.295-308
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• 2010

As an attempt to explore the impact of droughts which may be worse by the climate change, the change in the water balance of the Han-river basin is analyzed. To accomplish it, we suggest a procedure consisting of three successive sub-procedures: daily rainfall generation for 70 years by the RegCM3 RCM ($27{\times}27\;km$) with the A2 scenario, daily discharge simulations by SLURP using the generated daily rainfall data, and monthly water balance analysis by K-WEAP (Korean Water Evaluation and Planning System) based on the SLURP simulation. Since significant uncertainty is involved in forecasting the future water consumption and water yields, we assumed three water consumption scenarios and fifty water yields scenarios. Three water consumption scenarios are, namely, "LOW", "MEDIUM", and "HIGH" according to the expected amount of water consumption. The fifty daily discharges are obtained from the SLURP simulations during the drought period. Finally, water balance analysis is performed by K-WEAP based on 150 combinations from three water consumption scenarios and the fifty daily discharges. Analysis of water scarcity in small basins of the Han River basin showed concentration of water scarcity in some small basins. It was also found that water scarcity would increase in all small basins of the Han River basin.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.7
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• pp.750-760
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• 2011

In this study, the reproducibility of the simulated current climate by using two regional climate models, such as Seoul National University Regional Climate Model (SNURCM) and Weather Resuearch and Forecasting (WRF), is evaluated in advance to produce the standard regional climate scenario of future climate. Within the evaluation framework of a COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), 28-year-long (1978-2005) regional climate simulation was conducted by using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-AO) global simulation data of the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) as a lateral boundary forcing. The simulated annual surface temperatures were in good agreement with the observation; the spatial correlation coefficients between each model and observation were over 0.98. The cold bias, however, were shown over the northern boundary in the both simulated results. In evaluation of the simulated precipitation, the skill was reasonable and good. The spatial correlation coefficients for the precipitation over the land area were 0.85 and 0.79 in SNURCM and WRF, respectively. It is noted that two regional climate models (RCMs) have different characteristics for the distribution of precipitation over equatorial and midlatitude areas. SNURCM shows better distribution of the simulated precipitation associated with the East Asia summer monsoon in the mid-latitude areas, but WRF shows better in the equatorial areas in comparison to each other. The simulated precipitation is overestimated in summer season (JJA) rather than in spring season (MAM), whereas the spatial distribution of the precipitation in spring season corresponds to the observation better than in summer season. Also the RCMs were capable of reproducing the annual variability of the maximum amount and its timing in July, in which the skills over the inland area were in better agreement with the observation than over the maritime area. The simulated regional climates, however, have the limitation to represent the number of days for extremely hot temperature and heavy rainfall over South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.3
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• pp.255-262
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• 1992

Urguay Round(UR) has lots of implication in the forest product market as well as the other sectors of the economy. Chestnut, one of the major forest product in Korea, would be affected by free trade resulting from the agreement on UR. To establish effective policy measures dealing with negative effects of free trade, if any, the effect of UR on producers should be figured out. In this contest, the purposes of this study are (1) estimating the demand, supply and its price functions of this market and (2) forecasting the effect of UR on growers. Using econometric method, demand, supply and price function of this market are estimated. The total amount of yearly money loss of growers due to free trade from 1992 to 2001 are estimated for four different scenarios. In each scenario, it is assumed that the tariffication reduction is 30%, 40%, 50% and 90%. Yearly money loss of chestnut growers at the year 2001 are forecasted such as 14 billion won, 18 billion won, 24 billion won and 25 billion won for the rate of tariffication reduction of 30%, 40%, 50%, and 90%, respectively.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.591-605
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• 2010

This study were to simulate major criteria air pollutants and estimate regional source-receptor relationship using air quality prediction model (TAPM ; The Air Pollution Model) in the Seoul Metropolitan area. Source-receptor relationship was estimated by contribution of each region to other regions and region itself through dividing the Seoul metropolitan area into five regions. According to administrative boundary, region I and region II were Seoul and Incheon in order. Gyeonggi was divided into three regions by directions like southern(region III), northern(IV) and eastern(V) area. Gridded emissions ($1km{\times}1km$) by Clean Air Pollicy Support System (CAPSS) of National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) was prepared for TAPM simulation. The operational weather prediction system, Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) operated by the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) was used for the regional weather forecasting with 30km grid resolution. Modeling period was 5 continuous days for each season with non-precipitation. The results showed that region I was the most air-polluted area and it was 3~4 times more polluted region than other regions for $NO_2$, $SO_2$ and PM10. Contributions of $SO_2$ $NO_2$ and PM10 to region I, II and III were more than 50 percent for their own sources. However region IV and V were mostly affected by sources of region I, II and III. When emissions of all regions were assumed to reduce 10 and 20 percent separately, air pollution of each region was reduced linearly and the contributions of reduction scenario were similar to those of base case. As input emissions were reduced according to different ratio - region I 40 percent, region II and III 20 percent, region IV and V 10 percent, air pollutions of region I and III were decreased remarkably. The contributions to region I, II, III were also reduced for their own sources. However, region I, II and III affected more regions IV and V. Shortly, graded reduction of emission could be more effective to control air pollution in emission imbalanced area.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_4
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• pp.1267-1276
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• 2020

To quantitatively predict the impacts of large-scale volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu on air quality and damage around the Korean Peninsula, a three-dimensional chemistry-transport modeling system (Weather Research & Forecasting - Sparse Matrix Operation Kernel Emission - Comunity Multi-scale Air Quality) was adopted. A worst-case meteorology scenario was selected to estimate the direct impact on Korea. This study applied the typical worst-case scenarios that are likely to cause significant damage to Korea among worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu in the past decade (2005~2014) and assumed a massive VEI 4 volcanic eruption on May 16, 2012, to analyze the concentration of PM_2.5 caused by the volcanic eruption. The effects of air quality in each region-cities, counties, boroughs-were estimated, and vulnerable areas were derived by conducting an exposure assessment reflecting vulnerable groups. Moreover, the effects of cities, counties, and boroughs were analyzed with a high-resolution scale (9 km × 9 km) to derive vulnerable areas within the regions. As a result of analyzing the typical worst-case volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu, a discrepancy was shown in areas between high PM_2.5 concentration, high population density, and where vulnerable groups are concentrated. From the result, PM_2.5 peak concentration was about 24,547 ㎍/㎥, which is estimated to be a more serious situation than the eruption of Mt. St. Helensin 1980, which is known for 540 million tons of volcanic ash. Paju, Gimpo, Goyang, Ganghwa, Sancheong, Hadong showed to have a high PM_2.5 concentration. Paju appeared to be the most vulnerable area from the exposure assessment. While areas estimated with a high concentration of air pollutants are important, it is also necessary to develop plans and measures considering densely populated areas or areas with high concentrations of susceptible population or vulnerable groups. Also, establishing measures for each vulnerable area by selecting high concentration areas within cities, counties, and boroughs rather than establishing uniform measures for all regions is needed. This study will provide the foundation for developing the standards for disaster declaration and preemptive response systems for volcanic eruptions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.427-436
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• 2020

It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.