• Title/Summary/Keyword: IT 분야

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Shielding for Critical Organs and Radiation Exposure Dose Distribution in Patients with High Energy Radiotherapy (고 에너지 방사선치료에서 환자의 피폭선량 분포와 생식선의 차폐)

  • Chu, Sung-Sil;Suh, Chang-Ok;Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2002
  • High energy photon beams from medical linear accelerators produce large scattered radiation by various components of the treatment head, collimator and walls or objects in the treatment room including the patient. These scattered radiation do not provide therapeutic dose and are considered a hazard from the radiation safety perspective. Scattered dose of therapeutic high energy radiation beams are contributed significant unwanted dose to the patient. ICRP take the position that a dose of 500mGy may cause abortion at any stage of pregnancy and that radiation detriment to the fetus includes risk of mental retardation with a possible threshold in the dose response relationship around 100 mGy for the gestational period. The ICRP principle of as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) was recommended for protection of occupation upon the linear no-threshold dose response hypothesis for cancer induction. We suggest this ALARA principle be applied to the fetus and testicle in therapeutic treatment. Radiation dose outside a photon treatment filed is mostly due to scattered photons. This scattered dose is a function of the distance from the beam edge, treatment geometry, primary photon energy, and depth in the patient. The need for effective shielding of the fetus and testicle is reinforced when young patients ate treated with external beam radiation therapy and then shielding designed to reduce the scattered photon dose to normal organs have to considered. Irradiation was performed in phantom using high energy photon beams produced by a Varian 2100C/D medical linear accelerator (Varian Oncology Systems, Palo Alto, CA) located at the Yonsei Cancer Center. The composite phantom used was comprised of a commercially available anthropomorphic Rando phantom (Phantom Laboratory Inc., Salem, YN) and a rectangular solid polystyrene phantom of dimensions $30cm{\times}30cm{\times}20cm$. the anthropomorphic Rando phantom represents an average man made from tissue equivalent materials that is transected into transverse 36 slices of 2.5cm thickness. Photon dose was measured using a Capintec PR-06C ionization chamber with Capintec 192 electrometer (Capintec Inc., Ramsey, NJ), TLD( VICTOREEN 5000. LiF) and film dosimetry V-Omat, Kodak). In case of fetus, the dosimeter was placed at a depth of loom in this phantom at 100cm source to axis distance and located centrally 15cm from the inferior edge of the $30cm{\times}30cm^2$ x-ray beam irradiating the Rando phantom chest wall. A acryl bridge of size $40cm{\times}40cm^2$ and a clear space of about 20 cm was fabricated and placed on top of the rectangular polystyrene phantom representing the abdomen of the patient. The leaf pot for testicle shielding was made as various shape, sizes, thickness and supporting stand. The scattered photon with and without shielding were measured at the representative position of the fetus and testicle. Measurement of radiation scattered dose outside fields and critical organs, like fetus position and testicle region, from chest or pelvic irradiation by large fie]d of high energy radiation beam was performed using an ionization chamber and film dosimetry. The scattered doses outside field were measured 5 - 10% of maximum doses in fields and exponentially decrease from field margins. The scattered photon dose received the fetus and testicle from thorax field irradiation was measured about 1 mGy/Gy of photon treatment dose. Shielding construction to reduce this scattered dose was investigated using lead sheet and blocks. Lead pot shield for testicle reduced the scatter dose under 10 mGy when photon beam of 60 Gy was irradiated in abdomen region. The scattered photon dose is reduced when the lead shield was used while the no significant reduction of scattered photon dose was observed and 2-3 mm lead sheets refuted the skin dose under 80% and almost electron contamination. The results indicate that it was possible to improve shielding to reduce scattered photon for fetus and testicle when a young patients were treated with a high energy photon beam.

Recent Research for the Seismic Activities and Crustal Velocity Structure (국내 지진활동 및 지각구조 연구동향)

  • Kim, Sung-Kyun;Jun, Myung-Soon;Jeon, Jeong-Soo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.4 s.179
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    • pp.369-384
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    • 2006
  • Korean Peninsula, located on the southeastern part of Eurasian plate, belongs to the intraplate region. The characteristics of intraplate earthquake show the low and rare seismicity and the sparse and irregular distribution of epicenters comparing to interplate earthquake. To evaluate the exact seismic activity in intraplate region, long-term seismic data including historical earthquake data should be archived. Fortunately the long-term historical earthquake records about 2,000 years are available in Korea Peninsula. By the analysis of this historical and instrumental earthquake data, seismic activity was very high in 16-18 centuries and is more active at the Yellow sea area than East sea area. Comparing to the high seismic activity of the north-eastern China in 16-18 centuries, it is inferred that seismic activity in two regions shows close relationship. Also general trend of epicenter distribution shows the SE-NW direction. In Korea Peninsula, the first seismic station was installed at Incheon in 1905 and 5 additional seismic stations were installed till 1943. There was no seismic station from 1945 to 1962, but a World Wide Standardized Seismograph was installed at Seoul in 1963. In 1990, Korean Meteorological Adminstration(KMA) had established centralized modem seismic network in real-time, consisted of 12 stations. After that time, many institutes tried to expand their own seismic networks in Korea Peninsula. Now KMA operates 35 velocity-type seismic stations and 75 accelerometers and Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources operates 32 and 16 stations, respectively. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety and Korea Electric Power Research Institute operate 4 and 13 stations, consisted of velocity-type and accelerometer. In and around the Korean Peninsula, 27 intraplate earthquake mechanisms since 1936 were analyzed to understand the regional stress orientation and tectonics. These earthquakes are largest ones in this century and may represent the characteristics of earthquake in this region. Focal mechanism of these earthquakes show predominant strike-slip faulting with small amount of thrust components. The average P-axis is almost horizontal ENE-WSW. In north-eastern China, strike-slip faulting is dominant and nearly horizontal average P-axis in ENE-WSW is very similar with the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, in the eastern part of East Sea, thrust faulting is dominant and average P-axis is horizontal with ESE-WNW. This indicate that not only the subducting Pacific Plate in east but also the indenting Indian Plate controls earthquake mechanism in the far east of the Eurasian Plate. Crustal velocity model is very important to determine the hypocenters of the local earthquakes. But the crust model in and around Korean Peninsula is not clear till now, because the sufficient seismic data could not accumulated. To solve this problem, reflection and refraction seismic survey and seismic wave analysis method were simultaneously applied to two long cross-section traversing the southern Korean Peninsula since 2002. This survey should be continuously conducted.

Utility of Wide Beam Reconstruction in Whole Body Bone Scan (전신 뼈 검사에서 Wide Beam Reconstruction 기법의 유용성)

  • Kim, Jung-Yul;Kang, Chung-Koo;Park, Min-Soo;Park, Hoon-Hee;Lim, Han-Sang;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: The Wide Beam Reconstruction (WBR) algorithms that UltraSPECT, Ltd. (U.S) has provides solutions which improved image resolution by eliminating the effect of the line spread function by collimator and suppression of the noise. It controls the resolution and noise level automatically and yields unsurpassed image quality. The aim of this study is WBR of whole body bone scan in usefulness of clinical application. Materials and Methods: The standard line source and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) reconstructed spatial resolution measurements were performed on an INFINA (GE, Milwaukee, WI) gamma camera, equipped with low energy high resolution (LEHR) collimators. The total counts of line source measurements with 200 kcps and 300 kcps. The SPECT phantoms analyzed spatial resolution by the changing matrix size. Also a clinical evaluation study was performed with forty three patients, referred for bone scans. First group altered scan speed with 20 and 30 cm/min and dosage of 740 MBq (20 mCi) of $^{99m}Tc$-HDP administered but second group altered dosage of $^{99m}Tc$-HDP with 740 and 1,110 MBq (20 mCi and 30 mCi) in same scan speed. The acquired data was reconstructed using the typical clinical protocol in use and the WBR protocol. The patient's information was removed and a blind reading was done on each reconstruction method. For each reading, a questionnaire was completed in which the reader was asked to evaluate, on a scale of 1-5 point. Results: The result of planar WBR data improved resolution more than 10%. The Full-Width at Half-Maximum (FWHM) of WBR data improved about 16% (Standard: 8.45, WBR: 7.09). SPECT WBR data improved resolution more than about 50% and evaluate FWHM of WBR data (Standard: 3.52, WBR: 1.65). A clinical evaluation study, there was no statistically significant difference between the two method, which includes improvement of the bone to soft tissue ratio and the image resolution (first group p=0.07, second group p=0.458). Conclusion: The WBR method allows to shorten the acquisition time of bone scans while simultaneously providing improved image quality and to reduce the dosage of radiopharmaceuticals reducing radiation dose. Therefore, the WBR method can be applied to a wide range of clinical applications to provide clinical values as well as image quality.

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Rural Migration and Changes of Agricultural Population (농민이촌(農民離村)과 농업인구(農業人口)의 변화(變化))

  • Wu, Tsong-Shien;Kim, Kuong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1974
  • Taiwan agricultural development in the last decade has not been changed much since the accomplishment of land reform program. This is mainly due to the rapid development taken place within industry that agricultural development can not keep pace with. The increasing gap of rural-urban income discrepancy has caused socio-psychological unstability among rural people and inspire wants of out-migration. From 1961 to 1970, population of the ten largest cities showed an annual growth rate of 4.05%, while the population of the remainder of Taiwan showed 2.06%. Assuming the natural increase rate of these two population sections are similar, the difference of rural and urban annual growth rate can be at tributed to the flow of people from rural to urban sectors. The main objective of this paper is to identify the amount of agricultural out-migration and its impact on agricultural development and agricultural extension programs. Specifically, the objectives are to examine (1) rural-urban population composition (2) rural out-migration estimation (3) changes of agricultural population, and (4) implications for agricultural development and extension programs Some of the important findings are listed below; (1) The average agricultural out migration of the period 1960-1969 is estimated at around 60,000 per year. Take Tainan prefecture for example, the Male-Female Migration Ratio is 0.39 for age 20-24, 0.55 for age 25-29, 0.90 for 30-34. It is understood between age 20 and 34, the rural female migration rate is higher than the rural male. (2) Based on the population growth rate of 1950-1969, agricultural population is projected for the period of 1953 to 1989. By 1978, the agricultural population will reach its peak and begin to dedaine from 1980. The projected agricultural population in 1989 is 5,847,566 which occupies 29% of the Taiwan total population. (3) Assuming area of cultivated land keep unchanged as 905,263 ha. in 1970, and tif we can eliminate all 72% of part-time farms, then the average farm acreage for hose full-time farms will be increased to 3.6 hactares. This is unlikely to happen before 1989 without the government interference. (4) Less than 10% of adult farmer s of age 25-64 in 1969 enrolled in Farm Discussion Club, only 5% of adult farm women enrolled in Home Economics Club, and 5% of rural youth enrolled in 4-H Club. These statistics show a fact that only few farmers are reached by extension workers. Based on findings in this paper, some important suggestions are listed for future agricultural development. (1) Improve agricultural structure by decreasing agricultural population (a) Encourage farmers with less than 0.5 ha. of land to seek jobs outside of agriculture (b) Encourage joint cultivation and farm mechanization (c) Discourage rural migrants to Keep farm land (d) Provide occupational guidance program through extension education programs (2) Establish future farmers settlement project to assure rural youth have enough resources for farming. (3) An optimum Population policy should be integrated into rural socio-economic development and national development programs.

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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Coffee consumption behaviors, dietary habits, and dietary nutrient intakes according to coffee intake amount among university students (일부 대학생의 커피섭취량에 따른 커피섭취행동, 식습관 및 식사 영양소 섭취)

  • Kim, Sun-Hyo
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.270-283
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to examine coffee consumption behaviors, dietary habits, and nutrient intakes by coffee intake amount among university students. Methods: Questionnaires were distributed to 300 university students randomly selected in Gongju. Dietary survey was administered during two weekdays by the food record method. Results: Subjects were divided into three groups: NCG (non-coffee group), LCG (low coffee group, 1~2 cups/d), and HCG (high coffee group, 3 cups/d) by coffee intake amount and subjects' distribution. Coffee intake frequency was significantly greater in the HCG compared to the LCG (p < 0.001). The HCG was more likely to intake dripped coffee with or without milk and/or sugar than the LCG (p < 0.05). More than 80% of coffee drinkers chose their favorite coffee or accompanying snacks regardless of energy content. More than 75% of coffee takers did not eat accompanying snacks instead of meals, and the HCG ate them more frequently than LCG (p < 0.05). Breakfast skipping rate was high while vegetable and fruit intakes were very low in most subjects. Subjects who drank carbonated drinks, sweet beverages, or alcohol were significantly greater in number in the LCG and HCG than in the NCG (p < 0.01). Energy intakes from coffee were $0.88{\pm}5.62kcal/d$ and $7.07{\pm}16.93kcal/d$ for the LCG and HCG. For total subjects, daily mean dietary energy intake was low at less than 72% of estimated energy requirement. Levels of vitamin C and calcium were lower than the estimated average requirements while that of vitamin D was low (24~34% of adequate intake). There was no difference in nutrient intakes by coffee intake amount, except protein, vitamin A, and niacin. Conclusion: Coffee intake amount did not affect dietary nutrient intakes. Dietary habits were poor,and most nutrient intakes were lower than recommend levels. High intakes of coffee seemed to be related with high consumption of sweet beverages and alcohol. Therefore, it is necessary to improve nutritional intakes and encourage proper water intake habits, including coffee intake, for improved nutritional status of subjects.

An Study on Cognition and Investigation of Silla Tumuli in the Japanese Imperialistic Rule (일제강점기의 신라고분조사연구에 대한 검토)

  • Cha, Soon Chul
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.39
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    • pp.95-130
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    • 2006
  • Japanese government college researchers, including Sekino Tadashi(關野貞), have conducted research studies and collected data, on overall Korean cultural relics as well as Silla tumuli(新羅古墳) in the early modern times under the Japanese imperialistic rule. They were supported by the Meichi government in the early stage of research, by the Chosun government-general, and by their related organizations after Korea was coIonialized to carry out investigations on Korean antiquities, fine arts, architecture, anthropology, folklore, and so on. The objective for which they prosecuted inquiries into Korean cultural relics, including Silla tumuli, may be attributed to the purport to find out such data as needed for the theoretical foundation to justify their colonialization of Korea. Such a reason often showed locally biased or distorted views. Investigations and surveys had been incessantly carried out by those Japanese scholars who took a keen interest in Korean tumuli and excavated relics since 1886. 'Korea Architecture Survey Reports' conducted in 1904 by Sekino in Korea gives a brief introduction of the contents of Korean tumuli, including the Five Royal Mausoleums(五陵). And in 1906 Imanishi Ryu(今西龍) launched for the first time an excavation survey on Buksan Tumulus(北山古墳) in Sogeumgangsan(小金剛山) and on 'Namchong(南塚)' in Hwangnam-dong, which greatly contributed to the foundation of a basic understanding of Wooden chamber tombs with stone mound(積石木槨墳) and stone chambers with tunnel entrance(橫穴式石室墳). The ground plan and cross section of stone chambers made in 1909 at his excavation survey of seokchimchong(石枕塚) by Yazui Seiyichi(谷井第一) who majored in architecture made a drawing in excavation surveys for the first time in Korea, in which numerical expressions are sharply distinguished from the previous sketched ones. And even in the following excavation surveys this kind of drawing continued. Imanishi and Yazui elucidated that wooden chambers with stone mound chronologically differs from the stone chambers with tunnel entrance on the basis of the results of surveys of the locational characteristics of Silla tumuli, the forms and size of tomb entrance, excavated relics, and so forth. The government-general put in force 'the Historic Spots and Relics Preservation Rules' and 'the Historic Spots Survey Council Regulations' in 1916, establishing 'Historic Spots Survey Council and Museum Conference. When museums initiated their activities, they exhibited those relics excavated from tumuli and conducted surveys of relics with the permission of the Chosun government-general. A gold crown tomb(金冠塚) was excavated and surveyed in 1921 and a seobong tomb(瑞鳳塚) in 1927. Concomitantly with this large size wooden chamber tombs with stone mound attracted strong public attention. Furthermore, a variety of surveys of spots throughout the country were carried out but publication of tumuli had not yet been realized. Recently some researchers's endeavors led to publish unpublished reports. However, the reason why reports of such significant tumuli as seobong tomb had not yet been published may be ascribed to the critical point in those days. The Gyeongju Tumuli Distribution Chart made by Nomori Ken(野守健) on the basis of the land register in the late 1920s seems of much significance in that it specifies the size and locations of 155 tumuli and shows the overall shape of tumuli groups within the city, as used in today's distribution chart. In the 1930s Arimitsu Kyoichi(有光敎一) and Saito Tadashi(齋藤忠) identified through excavation surveys of many wooden chamber tombs with stone mound and stone chambers with tunnel entrance, that there were several forms of tombs in a tomb system. In particular, his excavation survey experience of those wooden chamber tombs with stone mound which were exposed in complicated and overlapped forms show features more developed than that of preceding excavation surveys and reports publication, and so on. The result of having reviewed the contents of many historic spots surveyed at that time. Therefore this reexamination is considered to be a significant project in arranging the history of archaeology in Korea.

The Application of 3D Bolus with Neck in the Treatment of Hypopharynx Cancer in VMAT (Hypopharynx Cancer의 VMAT 치료 시 Neck 3D Bolus 적용에 대한 유용성 평가)

  • An, Ye Chan;Kim, Jin Man;Kim, Chan Yang;Kim, Jong Sik;Park, Yong Chul
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.32
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: To find out the dosimetric usefulness, setup reproducibility and efficiency of applying 3D Bolus by comparing two treatment plans in which Commercial Bolus and 3D Bolus produced by 3D Printing Technology were applied to the neck during VMAT treatment of Hypopahrynx Cancer to evaluate the clinical applicability. Materials and Methods: Based on the CT image of the RANDO phantom to which CB was applied, 3D Bolus were fabricated in the same form. 3D Bolus was printed with a polyurethane acrylate resin with a density of 1.2g/㎤ through the SLA technique using OMG SLA 660 Printer and MaterializeMagics software. Based on two CT images using CB and 3D Bolus, a treatment plan was established assuming VMAT treatment of Hypopharynx Cancer. CBCT images were obtained for each of the two established treatment plans 18 times, and the treatment efficiency was evaluated by measuring the setup time each time. Based on the obtained CBCT image, the adaptive plan was performed through Pinnacle, a computerized treatment planning system, to evaluate target, normal organ dose evaluation, and changes in bolus volume. Results: The setup time for each treatment plan was reduced by an average of 28 sec in the 3D Bolus treatment plan compared to the CB treatment plan. The Bolus Volume change during the pretreatment period was 86.1±2.70㎤ in 83.9㎤ of CB Initial Plan and 99.8±0.46㎤ in 92.2㎤ of 3D Bolus Initial Plan. The change in CTV Min Value was 167.4±19.38cGy in CB Initial Plan 191.6cGy and 149.5±18.27cGy in 3D Bolus Initial Plan 167.3cGy. The change in CTV Mean Value was 228.3±0.38cGy in CB Initial Plan 227.1cGy and 227.7±0.30cGy in 3D Bolus Initial Plan 225.9cGy. The change in PTV Min Value was 74.9±19.47cGy in CB Initial Plan 128.5cGy and 83.2±12.92cGy in 3D Bolus Initial Plan 139.9cGy. The change in PTV Mean Value was 226.2±0.83cGy in CB Initial Plan 225.4cGy and 225.8±0.33cGy in 3D Bolus Initial Plan 224.1cGy. The maximum value for the normal organ spinal cord was the same as 135.6cGy on average each time. Conclusion: From the experimental results of this paper, it was found that the application of 3D Bolus to the irregular body surface is more dosimetrically useful than the application of Commercial Bolus, and the setup reproducibility and efficiency are excellent. If further case studies along with research on the diversity of 3D printing materials are conducted in the future, the application of 3D Bolus in the field of radiation therapy is expected to proceed more actively.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

A Study on the Classification and Research Trends of Articles in The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine (한국농촌의학회지(韓國農村醫學會誌)에 게재된 연구논문의 분류 및 연구동향)

  • Wee, You-Mee;Kim, Suk-Il;Park, Hyang;Ryu, So-Yeon;Park, Jong;Kim, Ki-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.231-244
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    • 2000
  • Classification and research trends were studied to analyze a total of 240 original articles that have been published in 34 volumes of The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine from 1976 to 1999. The results were as follows: 1. A total of 337 articles were published. Among them, 240(71.2%) articles were classified as original articles. This number has been increasing significantly over the years as the number of the articles was 13 in the 1970s, 73 in the 1980s, and 154 in the 1990s. 2. There were 10 authors in the original articles and 55(22.9%) of them were written by 3 of them. There were five research institutions involved in the articles, and 106(44.2%) of the articles were done by one research group. 3. In the original articles. 24(10.0%) were noted to be done using research funds, and only 6(2.5%) were written in English. 4. In the view of the research styles of the original articles, 115(47.9%) used analytical study, 92(38.3%) used technical study, 21(9.2%) used experimental study, and 6(2.5%) used case reports. In the 1970s, 13(100.0%) articles used technical study, and in the 1980s, 47(64.4%) used technical studies and 19(26.0%) used analytical studies. However, in the 1990s, 96(62.8%) articles used analytical studies and 32(20.9%) used technical studies. The statistical methods most commonly used in the articles were technical statistics, the ${\chi}^2$-test, and the t-test respectively. 5. On the classification into three different research fields, 105(43.8%) articles were classified as health management, 96(40.0%) as disease epidemiology, and 39(16.3%) as rural environment and rural occupational disorders. In the 1970s, 12 (92.3 %) of the articles were on disease epidemiology and 1(7.7%) on health management were published. In the 1980s, 33(45.2%) articles on disease epidemiology, 29(39.7%) on health control, and 11(15.1%) on rural environment and rural occupational disorders were recorded. In the 1990s, however, 75(48.7%) articles were on health control, 51(33.1%) on disease control, and 28(18.2%) on the rural environment and rural occupational disorders. 6. According to the research subjects in each research field, the 39 articles in rural environment and rural occupational disorders were composed of 8(20.5%) articles on pesticide intoxication, 7(17,9%) on farmer's diseases, 7(17.9%) on vinyl-house diseases, and 6(15.4%) on accidents. From a total of 96 articles in disease epidemiology 56(58.3%) articles were on parasites, 16(16.7%) on non-infectious diseases, 12(12.5) on infectious diseases. From 105 articles in health control 25(23.8%) articles were on medical care utilization patterns, 18(17.1%) on the health care delivery system, and 13(12.4%) on maternal and child health. In the analysis of the 10 most prevalent subjects dealt in the above articles, 6(46.2%) articles were on parasites and 4(30.8%) on non-infectious diseases were recorded in the 1970s. In the 1980s, 28(38.4%) were on parasites. 9(12.3%) on the health care system, 7(9.6%) on medical care utilization patterns, 5(6.8%) on maternal and child health, and 4(5.5%) were on pesticide intoxication. In the 1990s, 22(14.3%) articles were on parasites. 18(11.7%) on medical care utilization patterns, 16(10.4%) on senile health, 14(9.1%) on the health care system, 10(6.5%) on infectious diseases, arid 10(6.5%) were on non-infectious diseases. In conclusion, the research activity on rural health has been strengthened in this country because the original articles in The Korean Journal of Rural Medicine have significantly increased in the past 24 years. In the 1970s and 1980s, research on disease epidemiology was most prevalent, but in the 1990s papers on health care were most popular. In addition, the articles on parasites were most frequently published in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, showing that parasitic problem was the main theme in those eras. However, in the 1990s, it was evident that the articles on parasites were decreasing and articles on the subject of medical care utilization patterns and senile health increased. Hereafter it was expected that research on health care would be more common in rural health in Korea.

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