• 에너지공학
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.34-46
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• 2002

Carbon accounting is a key issue in the discussions on global warming/CO$_2$mitigation. This paper applies both the IPCC Approach and the NEAT (Non-Energy use Emission Accounting Tables) model, a bottom-up approach, to estimate the potential CO$_2$ emissions (carbon storage) originating from the non-energy use as to assess the actual CO$_2$ emissions (carbon release) from the use of fossil fuels in Korea. The current Korean carbon accounting seems to overestimate the potential CO$_2$ emissions and with it to underestimate the actual CO$_2$ emissions. The estimation shows that the potential CO$_2$ emissions calculated according to the IPCC Approach are lower than those calculated using the NEAT model. This is because the IPCC default storage fraction for naphtha seems to be low for the Korean petrochemical production structure, on the one hand and because the IPCC Approach does not consider the trade with short life petrochemical products, on the other hand. This paper shows that a bottom-up approach like the NEAT model can contribute to overcome some of limitations of the IPCC guidelines, especially by considering the international trade with short life petrochemical products and by estimating the storage fractions of fossil fuels used as feedstocks for the country in consideration. This paper emphasizes the importance of accurate energy statistics for carbon accounting.

• 유기물자원화
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.131-139
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• 2022

본 연구는 니카라과 마나과 La Chureca 매립장의 온실가스 감축 사업을 하고자 매립장 반입현황조사, 폐기물 성상조사 및 온실가스 배출량 산정을 하였다. 반입량과 성상조사를 바탕으로 한 IPCC 모형을 통한 온실가스 배출량 산정 결과 2006년부터 2043년까지 연평균 290,147 ton-CO₂/year였으며, IPCC 모형의 불확도를 고려하여 보수적으로 산정한 배출량은 217,610 ton-CO₂/year로 나타났다. La Chureca 매립장에서 온실가스 포집 가능량을 모형 불확도를 고려하고 포집 효율을 보수적으로 산정했음에도 CDM에 등록된 다른 중미 사례의 중간값과 평균값을 상회했으며 오차 요인에 대한 민감도 분석에도 결과가 크게 다르지 않았다. 본 연구는 La Chureca 매립장 온실가스 감축 사업의 타당성을 평가하고 이행 방안을 도출하기 위한 온실가스 배출량에 대한 기초자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

1988년 설립 이후 기후변화 원인 등을 과학적으로 밝혀내고, 기후변화 문제 해결을 위한 조치를 전세계적으로 마련하고 있는 IPCC 주요 작업 중의 하나는 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 따른 잠재적인 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하고, 기후변화 대응 전략을 평가하는 것이다. IPCC 5차평가보고서를 위하여 2007년 9월 기후변화 전문가 회의에서는 약 130여명의 관련 연구자와 사용자가 참석한 가운데, 새로운 온실가스 농도 시나리오인 RCP가 확정되었고, 기후모델링(CM), 통합평가모델링(IAM), 영향, 적응, 취약성(IAV) 커뮤니티에 의한 시나리오 개발 체계 및 개발 일정이 수립되었다. 이후 세계 CM 커뮤니티는 2008년 9월 전문가회의를 통하여 IPCC AR5를 위한 기후변화 이해 증진 및 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하고, IPCC AR4에서 제기된 주요 이슈를 밝혀내기 위하여, 단기와 장기 시간 규모에 대한 30여개 이상의 표준 실험 프로토콜로 구성된 제5기 결합모델 비교 프로젝트(CMIP5)를 기획하였다. 2009년 초부터 CMIP5 관련 작업들이 착수되었으며, 현재 우리나라를 포함한 14개국 19개 모델이 참여하고 있다. 또한, 지역 기후변화에 대한 관심 증대로 지역기후변화 시나리오 생산을 위한 국제적인 통합 지역상세화 실험(CORDEX)이 2009년부터 진행되고 있다. IPCC SRES 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 따른 기후변화 시나리오를 개발하여 IPCC AR4 및 국내 기후변화 대응에 기여한 바 있는 기상청 국립기상연구소는 2009년부터 IPCC AR5 시나리오 개발 전략에 따라 기후 변화 시나리오 개발을 위한 국제 사업인 CMIP5와 CORDEX에 참여하여 RCP에 근거한 지구 기후 변화 시나리오 및 국가 차원의 기후 변화 대응을 위한 국가 표준 기후 변화 시나리오 개발에 착수하였다. 기상청은 개발될 지구 기후 변화 시나리오를 IPCC에 제공하여 IPCC AR5 작성에 기여하고 할 것이며, 이 지구 기후 변화 시나리오에 지역적 지형, 기후 특성 및 기후 변화 영향 평가를 위한 분야별 요구사항을 적용하여 국가 표준 시나리오를 개발하고 2012년에 유관기관 및 산 학 연에 제공할 계획이다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

• 자원리싸이클링
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.28-35
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 매립 처리시설를 대상으로 1996 IPCC G/L에 제시된 Tier 1 방법과 GPG 2000의 Tier 2 방법, 2006 IPCC G/L의 Tier 2 방법을 이용하여 매립시설에서 발생되는 온실가스 배출량을 산정하였으며 각 방법론 별로 적용상의 장단점 및 배출결과에 영향을 주는 요인과 산정된 배출량의 특성을 고찰하였다. 온실가스 배출량을 산정한 결과 1996 IPCC G/L Tier 1의 배출량은 2000 ~ 2013년 기간 동안 평균 약 2,760 ton/yr로 산정되었고, GPG 2000 Tier 2의 배출량은 평균 약 1,500 ton/yr, 2006 IPCC G/L Tier 2의 배출량은 평균 약 880ton/yr로 가장 낮게 산정되었다.

• 유기물자원화
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.13-19
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• 2024

본 연구는 온두라스 푸에르토 코르테스 매립장의 온실가스 감축 사업을 하고자 매립장 반입량 조사, 폐기물 성상조사 등 기초자료 수집 및 온실가스 배출량 산정을 하였다. 반입량과 성상조사를 바탕으로 IPCC 모형을 통한 온실가스 배출량 산정하였다. 2027년부터 2041년까지 IPCC모형의 매립가스 회수를 고려하여 산정한 결과 총 온실가스 감축량은 506,835ton-CO₂이며, 연평균 온실가스 감축량은 33,789 ton-CO₂로 산정되었다. 본 연구는 푸에르토 코르테스 매립장 온실가스 감축 사업의 타당성을 평가하고 이행 방안을 도출하기 위한 온실가스 배출량에 대한 기초자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2013

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

• 대기
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.55-70
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• 2008

The global time slice approach is a transient experiment using high resolution atmosphere-only model with boundary condition from the low resolution globally coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The present study employs this "time slice concept" using ECHAM4 atmosphere-only model at a horizontal resolution of T106 with the lower boundary forcing obtained from a lower-resolution (T42) greenhouse gas + aerosol forcing experiment performed using the ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) coupled model. In order to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on simulated East Asian summer monsoon climate, the differences in climate response between the time slice experiments of the present and that of IPCC SRES AR4 participating 21 models including coarser (T30) coupled model are compared. The higher resolution model from time slice experiment in the present climate show successful performance in simulating the northward migration and the location of the maximum rainfall during the rainy season over East Asia, although its rainfall amount was somewhat weak compared to the observation. Based on the present climate simulation, the possible change of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the future climate by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, tends to be increased especially over the eastern part of Japan during July and September. The increase of the precipitation over this region seems to be related with the weakening of northwestern part of North Pacific High and the formation of anticyclonic flow over the south of Yangtze River in the future climate.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.81-99
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• 2004

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.