• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.100 no.2
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• pp.256-265
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• 2011

This study was aiming at assessing the vulnerability of forest distribution by the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The vulnerability of forest distribution was assessed using its sensitivity and adaptation to climate change with the help of the simulations of Korean-specific forest distribution model, so-called the Thermal Analogy Group (TAG), and the Plant Functional Type (PFT) defined in the HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups) model. As a result, the vulnerable area occupied 30.78% and 2.81% of Korea in A2 and B1 scenario, respectively. When it comes to the administrative districts, Pusan in A2 and Daegu in B1 appeared the most vulnerable area. This study would be employed into preparation of adaptative measures for forest in future in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future development conditions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.929-933
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• 2009

전 세계적으로 기후변화와 이상기후에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. IPCC(2001)는 "기후변화"라는 요소가 기온 증가, 강우강도 및 빈도 변화와 이들로 인한 증발산의 변화, 유출량의 시 공간적 변동을 초래하여 수자원의 효율적 관리 및 안정적인 공급에 어려움을 증대시킬 것으로 전망하였다. 이에 따라 세계 각국은 미래 기후에 대한 보다 정확한 정보를 얻기 위하여 IPCC 권장 시나리오인 SRES(Special Report in Emission Scenario)기반의 GCM(General Circulation Model)과 RCM(Regional Circulation Model)을 이용하고 있으며 특히, 최근에는 고해상도 자료를 생산함으로써 국부지역에 대한 지형학적 특성을 효과적으로 모의할 수 있는 RCM 모형을 이용한 연구가 국외를 중심으로 진행되고 있다(권현한 등, 2008). 본 연구에서는 미래 한강 유역의 수자원 변동성을 평가하기 위하여 CA-Markov Chain 기법으로부터 토지이용변화를, 기온과 강수자료을 독립변수로 이용한 다중 회귀식으로부터 미래 NDVI를 추정하고 기상청에서 제공하는 RegCM3-지역지후모형으로부터 축소기법을 이용하여 추정된 KMA RCM 50set 기후변화시나리오를 SLURP 모형에 입력하였다. 2001년부터 2090년까지 총 90년에 대한 한강 유역의 미래 유출모의를 실시한 후 각 댐별 과거와 미래 유출량을 월별로 비교하고 이들의 유황분석을 실시하였다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2B
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• pp.181-191
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• 2009

This study suggests the assessment technique for climate change effect on drought in Korea based on the AR4 SRES A2 scenario reported in IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007. IPCC provides monthly outputs of 24 climate models through the DDC. One of the models is BCM2 model which was developed at BCCR in Norway and NCEP data is used for downscaling. The K-NN(K-Nearest Neighbor) and ANN(Artificial Neural Network) are selected as downscaling technique to downscale the temperature and precipitation at Seoul station in Korea. K-NN could downscale both temperature and precipitation well. ANN made a good result for temperature, but it gave a divergence result in precipitation. Finally, SPI of Seoul station is computed to evaluate the effect of climate change on drought. BCM2 predicted that temperature will increase and drought severity will increase because of the increased drought spell at Seoul station.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.141-158
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• 2013

In this study, the projection of future heating and cooling degree days (HDDs and CDDs) has been conducted over South Korea for the period 1996~2005 with 2046~2055 and 2091~2100, using CCSM3 and MM5 simulations driven by the six IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2). Annual mean surface air temperature increases by $1.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$ at the end of the 21st century comparing to the present-day (1996~2005) in South Korea. HDDs decrease by 8~25% and CDDs increase up to 242~1,448% with corresponding changes in temperature. These increases and decreases also change the duration of HDDs and CDDs. HDDs duration decreases by 1 month, while the expansion of CDDs duration is much longer than 2 months. Thus, projected future HDDs and CDDs changes appear that cooling energy demand in summer season would increase and heating energy demand in winter would decrease in the future. Especially, these remarkable changes would be obvious at high mountain area, Gangwon-do and at south area, Jeju island. In the sense of future energy supply and policy, electrical energy for cooling in summer could be getting much more its importance rather than fossil energy used for heating in winter.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2008

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the resent supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPPC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.369-369
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• 2011

전 세계적으로 이상기후와 기후변화와 관련된 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 국내에서도 기후변화가 수문환경에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 한편 도시지역에서의 기후변화에 관한 연구는 비교적 미비한 편이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 의한 도시지역의 수문 변동성을 평가하고자 고해상도 미래 기후 시나리오와 장기유출 모형을 이용하여 분석을 수행하였다. 기후 시나리오는 IPCC SRES-A2 시나리오와 전구기후모델인 ECHO-G/S로 생산되었고, RegCM3모델로 상세화된 5Km격자의 고해상도 시나리오를 이용하였다. 도시지역의 피복과 도시화의 정도를 고려할 수 있는 수문 모형으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)을 이용하여 기후시나리오의 적용을 통해 유출량을 모의하였다. 대상 유역으로는 서울시의 대표적인 도시하천인 중랑천으로 선정하였고 분석기간은 2010년부터 2099년까지 대상으로 하여 분석을 수행 하였다. 분석 결과 전체적으로 증가 경향을 보이며 특히 미래 2070년부터 2099년 기간에는 다른 기간보다 하천의 유량이 크게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해서 지자체의 도시하천에 대한 계획 및 관리하는 측면에서 유용하게 사용 될 것으로 사료된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.286-290
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• 2007

기후변화가 국내 수자원에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 고해상도 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 수자원의 변동성을 평가하였다. IPCC SRES A2 시나리오를 이용하여 5대강수계 139개 유역에 대해 기후 및 유출시나리오를 생산하고 수자원의 변동성을 시공간적으로 분석하였다. 고해상도$(27km{\times}27km)$ 시나리오는 기상연구소에서 전구기후모델인 ECHO-G의 결과를 지역기후모델인 MM5에 경계조건을 사용하여 역학적으로 상세화한 것이다. 이 시나리오를 이용하여 현실성 있는 유역별 기후시나리오를 생산하기 위해 LARS-WG를 사용하였으며, 유출시나리오 생산을 위해 USGS에서 개발된 PRMS 모형을 이용하였다. 생산된 시나리오를 이용하여 분석한 결과 전반적으로 한강유역이 위치한 북쪽유역에서는 연평균유출량이 증가되고, 남쪽에 위치한 유역들에서는 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 이것은 기온의 증가에 따른 평균증발산량의 증가에 따른 영향으로 나타났다. 계절별로는 봄과 여름철의 유출량은 감소하고, 가을과 겨울철 유출량은 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 여름철 평균유출량의 감소에도 불구하고 고수량(Q>100mm)의 규모 및 빈도가 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.551-563
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• 2016

According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.965-972
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• 2017

Assessment of vulnerability of water use to climate change include a variety of climate change scenarios. However, in most future vulnerability studies, only the climate change scenarios are used and not the future scenarios of social and economic indicators. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario and Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway (SSP) developed by IPCC to reflect the future. We selected indicators for estimating the vulnerability of water use, and indices were integrated with a multi-criteria decision making approach - Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The indicator data utilized national statistics and reports, social and economic scenarios, and simulated results from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which reflects climate change scenario. Finally, we derived the rankings of water use vulnerability for the short-term future (2020) and mid-term future (2050) within the Han River watershed. Generally, considering climate change alone and considering climate change plus social and economic changes showed a similar spatial distribution. In the future scenarios, the watershed rankings were similar, but showed differences with SSP scenario in some watersheds. Therefore, considering social and economic changes is expected to contribute to more effective responses to climate change.