• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.1041-1048
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• 2018

Gartner's Hype Cycle model is widely used to describe technology maturity, acceptability, and commercialization. In the Hype Cycle model, the techniques go through five stages, those are Innovation Trigger(first stage), stage Peak of Inflated Expectations(second stage), Trough of Disillusionment(third stage), Slope of Enlightenment(fourth stage) and Plateau of Productivity(fifth stage). In many studies, Hype Cycle is widely used as a basis for future prediction of technology, but the verification is somewhat lacking. In this paper, we analyzed the technologies that appeared in the Hype Cycle for the emerging technologies from 1995 to 2017. Through this, we found technologies that appeared as non first stage when first appearing, and techniques that showed a reversal of the maturity stage. In addition, we found that none of the technologies from 1995 to 2017 had gone through stages 1-5.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.185-196
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• 2011

In order to draw some strategic implications for the sustainable growth of emerging technologies this paper attempts to dynamics underlying the 'hype cycle' ever occurring in course of coevolution of technology and society. Particularly, a series of basic questions in the context of sustainability are explored to answer by simulating the hype system structure: What makes hype cycle occur? how to enhance the tapering level at the final stage of coevolution? what are the key policy leverages and when is the right time for the policy intervention? This study perhaps give some insights not necessarily to the academics but also to the practitioners and policy makers.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1109-1133
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• 2013

In an effort to discover new technologies and to forecast social changes of technologies, a number of technology life-cycle models have been developed and employed. The hype cycle, a graphical tool developed by a consulting firm, Gartner, is one of the most widely used models for the purpose and it is recognised as a practical one. However, more research is needed on theoretical frames, relations and empirical practices of the model. In this study, hype cycle comparisons in Korean and global search websites were performed by means of web-search traffic which is proposed as an empirical measurement of public expectation, analysed in a specific product or country in previous researches. First, search traffic and market share for new cars were compared in Korea and the U.S. with a view to identifying differences between the hype cycles in the two countries about the same product. The results show the similarity between the two countries with the statistical significance. Next, comparative analysis between search traffic and supply rate for several products in Korea was conducted to check out their patterns. According to the analysis, all the products seem to be at the "Peak of inflated expectations" in the hype cycles and they are similar to one another in the hype cycle. This study is of significance in aspects of expanding the scope of hype cycle analysis with web-search traffic because it introduced domestic web-search traffic analysis from Naver to analyse consumers' expectations in Korea by comparison with that from Google in other countries. In addition, this research can help to explain social phenomina more persuasively with search traffic and to give scientific objectivity to the hype cycle model. Furthermore, it can contribute to developing strategies of companies, such as marketing strategy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.107-129
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• 2022

It is important to preempt new technology because the technology competition is getting much tougher. Stakeholders conduct exploration activities continuously for new technology preoccupancy at the right time. Gartner's Hype Cycle has significant implications for stakeholders. The Hype Cycle is a expectation graph for new technologies which is combining the technology life cycle (S-curve) with the Hype Level. Stakeholders such as R&D investor, CTO(Chef of Technology Officer) and technical personnel are very interested in Gartner's Hype Cycle for new technologies. Because high expectation for new technologies can bring opportunities to maintain investment by securing the legitimacy of R&D investment. However, contrary to the high interest of the industry, the preceding researches faced with limitations aspect of empirical method and source data(news, academic papers, search traffic, patent etc.). In this study, we focused on two research questions. The first research question was 'Is there a difference in the characteristics of the network structure at each stage of the hype cycle?'. To confirm the first research question, the structural characteristics of each stage were confirmed through the component cohesion size. The second research question is 'Is there a pattern of diffusion at each stage of the hype cycle?'. This research question was to be solved through centralization index and network density. The centralization index is a concept of variance, and a higher centralization index means that a small number of nodes are centered in the network. Concentration of a small number of nodes means a star network structure. In the network structure, the star network structure is a centralized structure and shows better diffusion performance than a decentralized network (circle structure). Because the nodes which are the center of information transfer can judge useful information and deliver it to other nodes the fastest. So we confirmed the out-degree centralization index and in-degree centralization index for each stage. For this purpose, we confirmed the structural features of the community and the expectation diffusion patterns using Social Network Serice(SNS) data in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021'. Twitter data for 30 technologies (excluding four technologies) listed in 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2021' were analyzed. Analysis was performed using R program (4.1.1 ver) and Cyram Netminer. From October 31, 2021 to November 9, 2021, 6,766 tweets were searched through the Twitter API, and converting the relationship user's tweet(Source) and user's retweets (Target). As a result, 4,124 edgelists were analyzed. As a reult of the study, we confirmed the structural features and diffusion patterns through analyze the component cohesion size and degree centralization and density. Through this study, we confirmed that the groups of each stage increased number of components as time passed and the density decreased. Also 'Innovation Trigger' which is a group interested in new technologies as a early adopter in the innovation diffusion theory had high out-degree centralization index and the others had higher in-degree centralization index than out-degree. It can be inferred that 'Innovation Trigger' group has the biggest influence, and the diffusion will gradually slow down from the subsequent groups. In this study, network analysis was conducted using social network service data unlike methods of the precedent researches. This is significant in that it provided an idea to expand the method of analysis when analyzing Gartner's hype cycle in the future. In addition, the fact that the innovation diffusion theory was applied to the Gartner's hype cycle's stage in artificial intelligence can be evaluated positively because the Gartner hype cycle has been repeatedly discussed as a theoretical weakness. Also it is expected that this study will provide a new perspective on decision-making on technology investment to stakeholdes.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2013.10a
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• pp.518-531
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• 2013

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.80-104
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• 2016

Existing methodologies of technology planning about promising new technology focused on target technology itself, so it is true that socio-environmental context which the relevant technology has influence on is not well understood. In this respect, this study is aimed to questingly examine that news content analysis methodologies widely available in the field of science communication can be applied as a complementary methodology for contextual understanding of socio-environment in terms of technology planning about promising new technology. In the co-evolutionary environment of technology-society, promising new technology shows hype phenomenon regarding the relation with the society. Based on this, this study performed news content analysis and examined if the consequences of analysis would match hype cycle. It tried to explore substantive content understanding by socio-environment factors according to specific news frame content. To do this, new content analysis was performed targeting cloud computing as a representative promising new technology. The result of news content analysis targeting general newspapers, business news, IT special newspapers revealed that the tendency of news reporting matched the trend of hype cycle. Particularly, it was verified that reporting attitude and news frame analysis provided useful information to understand contextual content depending on social, economic, and cultural environment factors about promising new technology. The results of this study implied that news content analysis could overcome the limitation of technology information analysis focusing on academic journal patent usually applied for technology planning and could be used as a complementary methodology for understanding the context depending on macro-environment factors. In conclusion, application of news content analysis on the phase of macro-environment analysis of technology planning could contribute to the securement of mutually balanced view in the co-evolutionary perspective of technology-society.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.123-136
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• 2014

SDN 기술은 2011년부터 2013년까지는 Hype 사이클상 발생기 및 버블기를 지나는 동안 주로 기술의 필요성에 대한 논의가 많이 이루어져 왔고 기술개발도 적합성 검증 차원의 연구개발 및 Proof of Concept 정도의 서비스 시도가 단편적으로 제공되어 왔었다. 2014년을 접어들면서 각성기의 초기 단계로 관심도가 감소하고 얼리어탑터를 중심으로 1단계 SDN 기술, 상품 및 서비스가 유통되기 시작하고 있다. 본고에서는 이러한 진화과정을 거치고 있는 SDN 기술의 최근 기술동향에 대해 주요 3 계층인 인프라, 컨트롤러, 응용계층별로 학계/연구소, 산업체, 서비스 및 통신사업자, 표준화 단체에서 추진 중인 기술개발, 표준화 현황 및 적용사례에 대해서 소개하고 향후 SDN이 나아갈 발전방향에 대한 전망을 소개한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.01a
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• pp.337-339
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• 2021

본 연구는 최근 펜데믹 위기에서 교육의 변화하는 모습을 점검하고 미래의 학습에 대한 모습들을 예측하기 위해 이러닝과 학습분석에 대한 신흥기술의 동향을 살펴보고자 한다. 연구방법으로 신흥기술의 '하이프 사이클'과 '이러닝 예측 하이프 커버'를 기반으로 하여 각 단계별 기술들을 점검하고 펜데믹 위기에서 더 공고히 된 이러닝과 학습 관련 기술들이 무엇인지 살펴본다. 또한 하이프 사이클의 5단계인 기술촉발 단계, 부풀려진 기대의 정점 단계, 환멸 단계, 계몽 단계, 생산성 안정 단계인 각 단계별 학습과 관련된 기술들은 어떤 것이 있으며, 그 기술들이 이러닝과 학습분석에 어떠한 영향을 미칠 것인지 예측해 본다. 향후 연구로는 본 연구를 기반으로 인공지능이 이러닝과 학습분석에서의 역할을 알아보고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2015.11a
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• pp.927-945
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• 2015

본 연구는 과학 커뮤니케이션 분야에서 널리 쓰이고 있는 뉴스 내용분석 방법론이 하이프 사이클 모델에 부합하는 지를 탐색적으로 살펴보고자 한다. 즉 과학기술 뉴스 내용분석이 하이프 사이클 모델에서 설명하는 사회적 가시성의 실체적 파악을 위한 기술기획의 유용한 보완적 방법론으로 쓰일 수 있음을 밝히는데 본 연구의 의의가 있다. 이를 위해 대표적인 유망기술로 클라우드 컴퓨팅을 대상으로 뉴스 내용분석을 수행하였다. 분석의 초점은 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기술 관련 뉴스의 빈도, 보도태도(긍정, 중립, 부정), 5가지 뉴스 프레임 관점에서 분석이 이루어졌고, 뉴스 보도경향이 하이프 사이클 흐름을 따라가는 지를 살펴보았다. 종합지 경제지와 IT전문지를 대상으로 한 뉴스 내용분석 결과는 뉴스 빈도, 보도 태도, 뉴스 프레임 모두 하이프 사이클의 흐름을 따르고 있었으며, 특히 2014년 이후의 흐름은 하이프 사이클 상에서 기대붕괴 지점을 지나 현실인식의 지점으로 진화되는 시점임을 추론할 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 최근 확산되고 있는 텍스트 마이닝, 감성어 자동식별 분석 기술 등과 접목하여 사회적 맥락 파악을 위한 기술기획 분석의 보완적 방법론으로 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.