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http://dx.doi.org/10.6109/jkiice.2018.22.8.1041

Quantitative Analysis of Gartner's "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies"  

Park, Yoo-hyun (Department of Computer Software Engineering, Dongeui University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering / v.22, no.8, 2018 , pp. 1041-1048 More about this Journal
Abstract
Gartner's Hype Cycle model is widely used to describe technology maturity, acceptability, and commercialization. In the Hype Cycle model, the techniques go through five stages, those are Innovation Trigger(first stage), stage Peak of Inflated Expectations(second stage), Trough of Disillusionment(third stage), Slope of Enlightenment(fourth stage) and Plateau of Productivity(fifth stage). In many studies, Hype Cycle is widely used as a basis for future prediction of technology, but the verification is somewhat lacking. In this paper, we analyzed the technologies that appeared in the Hype Cycle for the emerging technologies from 1995 to 2017. Through this, we found technologies that appeared as non first stage when first appearing, and techniques that showed a reversal of the maturity stage. In addition, we found that none of the technologies from 1995 to 2017 had gone through stages 1-5.
Keywords
Hype Cycle; Gartner; Emerging Technology; Life cycle Model;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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