• 국제학술발표논문집
• /
• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
• /
• pp.1015-1022
• /
• 2009

Currently, Korean real estate market has experienced cooling down of the business because of the global economic crisis which resulted from the subprime mortgage lending practice. In response, the Korean government has enforced various policies at the base of deregulating real estate speculation, such as increasing Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to stimulate housing demand and supply. However, these policies seemed to result in deep confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analysis for housing market forecasting, especially international financial crisis on Korean real estate market, has been partial and fragmentary, therefore comprehensive solution and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate and real estate financial market including causal nexus between market determining factors. In an integrated point of view, applying the system dynamics modeling, the paper aims at proposing Korean Real Estate and Mortgage market dynamics models based on fundamental principles of housing market determined by supply and demand. We also find the impact of deregulation policies focusing on mortgage loan which is the main factors of policies.

• 한국주거학회논문집
• /
• 제26권5호
• /
• pp.71-78
• /
• 2015

Currently, the Korean construction industry is shifting its interest to the overseas construction market because of a stagnating domestic market. In the meantime, the international housing construction market is expanding with respect to new city development projects that are supported by population growth and urban migration. Despite the Korean construction industry's expertise in new city development, technology, and systems for apartment supply, the share of Korean players in the international housing construction market is continuously decreasing. As a measure to overcome this situation, the authors of this study considered the paper "The Development of a Cost Effective, Long-life Housing Model and Construction of Testbed," which is currently in progress as a part of national project. Through literature review and interviews with experts, the authors determined that there are "column+minimum interior (infill)" apartments that are similar to the long-life housing in some areas of China, Southeast Asia, and Russia. Candidate countries expected to be feasible for the entry of long-life housing were selected by determining the top countries that have already entered the long-life housing market and analyzing those selections through additional specific techniques. The external environments of the selected countries were also analyzed. Please refer to the full paper for details.

• 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
• /
• 제12권1호
• /
• pp.89-98
• /
• 2012

While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

• 토지주택연구
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.9-18
• /
• 2019

This study examined the dynamic change in the co-movement between the house price rates with the network methods of Mantegna (1999). First, Capital area and non-capital area form independent clusters which have the heterogeneous co-movement pattern. In other words, Capital and non-capital areas have low connectivity in the housing market. Also, if the co-movement between capital areas have been strengthened, the co-movement between non-capital areas have been weakened. The results of the dynamic analysis show that the degree of the co-movement in the housing market is continuously increased. The members of the co-movement group in the capital area are strongly steadied by all periods. However, the members in the non-capital area have been changed according to the period. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish policies based on various information for the housing market of the non-capital area rather than policies targeting the capital area. In addition, Apartments in Korea are more likely to be used as investment or speculative assets than other types of houses. It has been confirmed that this is Gangbuk, which is locatied in the northern part of Seoul, appears to be a region where the Spillover Effects of price fluctuation can be triggered in the housing and apartment market. However, the housing market in Gangnam, which is locatied in the southern part of Seoul, was divided into low systematic risk.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
• /
• 제17권6호
• /
• pp.566-576
• /
• 2016

일반적으로 부동산 매매시장과 경매시장 간에는 다양한 측면에서 긴밀한 연관관계가 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 또한 매체에서는 경매시장이 매매시장 경기를 선도하는 주요한 변수로 언급되었다. 본 논문에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 이전의 주택시장 활황기와 이후의 주택시장 침체기 각 시기별로 주택매매시장 및 주택전세시장과 주택경매시장 간의 관계를 벡터오차수정모형(VECM; Vector Error Correction Model)을 이용하여 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 논문에서는 국내 대표적인 부동산시장이며, 시단위에서 가장 많은 경매물건이 거래되는 서울시의 아파트를 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 분석변수는 주택매매가격지수, 주택전세가격지수, 낙찰율, 낙찰가율을 활용하였다. 본 연구에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 발생 이전인 2002년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지를 Model 1로, 2009년 1월부터 최근 2015년 11월까지를 Model 2로 구분하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과 경매시장의 경우 주택시장 변동에 상대적으로 덜 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 반대로, 경매시장 충격에는 주택시장이 유의미한 변동을 나타내는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 경매시장 변화가 주택시장 변동에 선행하는 것을 의미하며 하나의 거래시장으로 경매시장이 활성화되고 있음을 나타낸다. 중앙정부에서는 경매시장의 중요성을 정확히 인지하고 가격변동추이를 면밀히 확인할 필요가 있다. 또한 투자주체들 역시 경매시장에 대한 전문성을 확보할 필요가 있다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.43-51
• /
• 2018

We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of Asian four countries such as Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and China on housing market returns in Korea. Also, we document the relationship between the EPU index of those four countries and the housing market including macroeconomic indicators in Korea. The EPU index of those four countries has significantly a negative effect on the housing purchase price index, housing lease price index in Korea. The EPU index in Korea and Japan has significantly a negative effect on the CPI. The EPU index in only Japan has significantly a negative effect on the PPI. The EPU index in Hong Kong and Korea has significantly a negative effect but the EPU index in China significantly has a positive effect on the stock price index in construction industry. The EPU index in only Korea has significantly a negative effect the stock price index in banking industry. This study shows the EPU index of the Korea has the negative relationships on the housing market economy rather than other countries by VECM. And this study has an important evidence of the spillover of several macroeconomic indicators in Korea for the EPU index of the Asian four countries.

• 한국주거학회논문집
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2004

The purpose of this study has two folds. For the local government it gives a guide to establish the housing information system, which provides various housing information in order to promote service to the public on Internet. It also gives a guide for the local government to collect the fundamental data from local housing market and provide them to the policy makers as well as the housing producers (landlords, builders and owner-occupiers). Contents of housing information system website for the local government consist of three main parts. The first part provides housing policy and local housing market information to the upper level local government as well as housing producers. The second part provides housing information for the people who are looking for houses to move the own. Final part provides the procedures of building construction and development plan for landlords to the public. In case of Pyongtaek-City, this study makes them by cluster analysis of houses and households moving pattern as the Internet contents. Housing markets of Pyongtaek-City divide 3 sectors by housing type, tenure type and housing supply ratio etc. And populations prefer to move intra sectors. According to this information, policy-makers should define local housing problems and find solutions and housing producers can supply the house just in sites and in time. In conclusion, local government should provide valuable housing information based on local housing market research to the public for the effective housing policy. As local housing market is formed by various factors it is needed for local government to research housing sub-markets due to apply these research results to the local government for the future.

• 한국경제지리학회지
• /
• 제19권4호
• /
• pp.743-763
• /
• 2016

본 연구는 개혁개방 이후 형성된 사회주의 시장경제 하 중국 주택체제의 성격을 중국의 공공주택 정책인 보장성 주택 정책을 중심으로 주택시스템 비교연구의 관점에서 분석하였다. 중국 주택시스템의 전환은 시장기능의 도입과 사회주의 토지공유제의 약화라는 점에서 차별적인 '사회주의 시장경제 주택시스템'의 형성이 아닌, 자본주의 주택시스템의 하위유형으로 전환한 것으로 볼 수 있다. 이것은 기존 정부 공급형 계획의 사회주의 방식이 정부의 간접적인 개입과 조정에 따라 시장요소를 통해 주택이 공급되는 정부 주도형 시장화의 방식으로 전환한 것이며, 정부가 가지는 시장주도력은 사회주의적 토지소유의 유산에 기반하고 있다는 점에서 차별화된다.

• 토지주택연구
• /
• 제11권4호
• /
• pp.35-50
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to examine which factors are important in determining the amount of the apartment supply in Changwon City. Additionally, this study is to examine the changes in the determination of the amount of apartment supply in Changwon by dividing it into before and after 2016 as the city showed a large difference in apartment supply that caused structural changes during this time period. This study shows that the increase in the number of housing construction permits in Changwon before 2016 had a negative impact on the housing market as well as causing a decrease in the supply of apartments in Changwon after 2016. As a result of the shortsighted predictions on the housing market of Changwon from before 2016, it still affects the current housing market as of June 2020. The implication of this study is that through the housing market system of Changwon City, they can take the role as a control tower in Changwon City and propose principles and standards for supply control in order to better predict the demand of the housing market.

• 한국건축시공학회지
• /
• 제14권6호
• /
• pp.631-637
• /
• 2014

최근 모듈러주택 시장은 주거시설 뿐만 아니라 업무시설등에 적용되면서 시장영역이 확대되고 있다. 해외 선진국의 경우 성숙단계로 접어들고 있으며, 국내의 경우 시장이 형성되어 있지 않기 때문에 중 장기 시장 전망을 위한 추세 파악에 어려움이 있다. 이에 본 연구는 시계열 분석을 기반으로 비선형 예측모형을 활용하여 국내 모듈러주택의 시장수요를 전망하였다. 모듈러주택 시장수요 전망은 신규 주택 건설에 대한 수요량 추정 결과를 기반으로 주택 공급량을 파악하고 주택공급량의 일부를 모듈러주택 수요로 가정하여 시나리오분석을 하였으며, 비선형 예측모형을 활용하여 모듈러주택 시장 전망을 하였다.