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http://dx.doi.org/10.5345/JKIBC.2014.14.6.631

Prospecting the Market of the Modular Housing Using the Nonlinear Forecasting Models  

Park, Nam-Cheon (Construction Management & Economy Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology(KICT))
Kim, Kyoon-Tai (Construction Management & Economy Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology(KICT))
Kim, In-Moo (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University)
Kim, Seok-Jong (Power Planning Dept, Korea Power Exchange)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction / v.14, no.6, 2014 , pp. 631-637 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently, following the application of modular housing techniques to not only residential sector, but also to business sector, the scope of modular housing market b expanding. In the case of other developed countries, such markets are entering into the maturity stage, though the market in Korea is not fully formed yet. Thus, it is difficult to check its trend to estimated mid- to long-term prospects of the market. In this context, the study predicted demand of the modular housing market by using a non-linear prediction model based on time series analysis. To get the prospects for the modular housing market, the quantity of housing supply was estimated based on the estimated quantity of newly built housings, and assumed that a portion of the supplied quantity would be the demand for modular housings. Based on the assumption of demand for modular housings, several scenarios were analyzed and the prospects of the modular housing market was obtained by utilizing the non-linear prediction model.
Keywords
modular housing; time series analysis; nonlinear forecasting models; demand forecast; market prospect;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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