• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.189-189
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• 2016

To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.203-216
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• 2024

The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences in Korea has developed the Weather Modification Hybrid Rocket (WMHR), an advanced system that offers enhanced stability and cost-effectiveness over conventional solid-fuel rockets. Designed for precise operation, the WMHR enables accurate control over the ejection altitude of pyrotechnics by modulating the quantity of oxidizer, facilitating specific cloud seeding at various atmospheric layers. Furthermore, the rate of descent for pyrotechnic devices can be adjusted by modifying parachute sizes, allowing for controlled dispersion time and concentration of seeding agents. The rocket's configuration also supports adjustments in the pyrotechnic device's capacity, permitting tailored seeding agent deployment. This innovation reflects significant technical progression and collaborations with local manufacturers, in addition to efforts to secure testing sites and address hybrid rocket production challenges. Notable outcomes of this project include the creation of a national framework for weather modification technology utilizing hybrid rockets, enhanced cloud seeding methods, and the potential for broader meteorological application of hybrid rockets beyond precipitation augmentation. An illustrative case study confirmed the WMHR's operational effectiveness, although the impact on cloud seeding was limited by unfavorable weather conditions. This experience has provided valuable insights and affirmed the system's potential for varied uses, such as weather modification and deploying high-altitude meteorological sensors. Nevertheless, the expansion of civilian weather rocket experiments in Korea faces challenges due to inadequate infrastructure and regulatory limitations, underscoring the urgent need for advancements in these areas.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2012

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.625-627
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• 2003

In this study, the Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected by the GPS receivers that were established as continuously operating reference stations by Central Weather Bureau and Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan are utilized to investigate the impact of atmospheric water vapor on GPS positioning determination. The surface meteorological measurements that were concurrently acquired by instruments co-located with the GPS receivers include temperature, pressure and humidity data. To obtain the influence of the baseline length on the proposed impact study, four baselines are considered according to the locations of the permanent GPS sites. The length of the shorter baseline is about 66km, while the longer is about 118 km. The results from the studies associated with different baseline lengths and ellipsoid height were compared for the cases with and without a priori knowledge of surface meteorological measurements. The finding based on 66 days measurements is that the surface meteorological measurements have a significant impact on the positioning determination for the longer baseline case. The associated daily maximum differences are 1.1 cm and 1.4 cm for the baseline and ellipsoid height respectively. The corresponding biases are -8.1 mm in length and -7.3 mm in el lipsoid height.

• 감성과학
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.65-78
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• 2023

항공기는 대표적인 인간-기계시스템이다. 인간의 조작과 기계의 작동 완료 시점 사이에는 기계가 작동되기 시작하는 시간과 기계에 힘이 전달되기 시작하여 완료되는 시간 등의 지연이 발생하며 항공기 조종은 시스템의 지연을 예측한 타이밍 작업을 통해 이루어진다. 시간지각은 타이밍 작업의 중요한 요소이며, 높은 각성작용과 관련된 불안에 영향을 받는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 가상현실 환경에서 현직 조종사를 대상으로 기상, 비행 및 시간 조건이 조종사에게 발생하는 불안과 시간지각에 미치는 영향을 검증하였다. 기상조건은 시계비행 기상 상황과 악기상 상황으로 구분하였고 비행 및 시간 조건을 달리하여 실험 1, 2를 실시하였다. 실험 1은 비교적 운동량의 변화가 적고 지연이 적은 제자리비행과 수평비행 상황에서 조종간에 추가된 버튼을 사용하여 시간지각을 측정하였다. 실험 2는 운동량의 변화가 많고 지연이 많이 발생하는 이륙상황에서 조종간만을 사용하게 하여 자연스럽게 헬리콥터를 이륙시키는 과정에서 시간지각을 측정하였다. 실험결과 악기상 상황에서 불안과 심박수가 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 실험 1, 2의 모든 비행조건 중 불안이 증가한 상황에서 시간을 과대 추정하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 불안의 영향으로 시간을 과대 추정하여 타이밍 작업을 실패할 수 있으며, 이로 인해 조종에 어려움을 겪고 사고로 연결될 가능성이 있음을 시사한다.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.42-50
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• 2016

This study presents a performance evaluation of four different land surface models (LSM) available in Weather Forecast Research (WRF). The research site was located in Haean Basin in South Korea. The basin is very unique by its geomorphology and topography. For a better representation of the complex terrain in the mesoscale model were used a high resolution topography data with a spatial resolution of 30 meters. Additionally, land-use layer was corrected by ground mapping data-sets. The observation equipments used in the study were an ultrasonic anemometer with a gas analyzer, an automatic weather station and a tethered balloon sonde. The model simulation covers a four-day period during autumn. The result shows significant impact of LSM on meteorological simulation. The best agreement between observation and simulation was found in the case of WRF with Noah LSM (WRF-Noah). The WRF with Rapid Update Cycle LSM (WRF-RUC) has a very good agreement with temperature profiles due to successfully predicted fog which appeared during measurements and affected the radiation budget at the basin floor. The WRF with Pleim and Xiu LSM (WRF-PX) and WRF with Thermal Diffusion LSM (WRF-TD) performed insufficiently for simulation of heat fluxes. Both overestimated the sensible and underestimated the latent heat fluxes during the daytime.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.703-720
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• 2019

최근 빈번하게 발생하는 이상기온과 기후변화로 인하여 전력수요의 변동성이 커지고 있으며 기온 영향의 증가와 함께 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 반응은 비선형성과 비대칭성으로 나타나고 있다. 정부 에너지 정책의 변화와 4차 산업혁명의 전개에 따라 기온 효과를 보다 정확하게 추정하고 예측하는 것은 안정적 전력수급 관리를 위하여 중요한 과제이다. 본 연구는 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 비선형적 반응에 대하여 부분선형모형을 이용하여 분석하고자 한다. 기온변화와 전력수요의 비선형·비대칭적 관계를 측정하기 위하여 Robinson의 double residual 준모수적 추정과 스플라인 추정을 적용하였다. 기상변수와 전력 소비에 대한 시간 단위 고주기 자료를 사용하여 부분선형모형으로 추정한 기온변화와 전력 소비의 관계는 기존 모수적 모형과는 다른 비선형성과 비대칭성을 갖고 있음을 확인하였다. 부분선형모형을 이용하여 얻은 전력수요에 대한 표본내·표본외 예측은 이차함수 모형과 냉난방도일 모형과 비교하여 우수한 예측력을 보였다. Diebold-Mariano 검정결과, 부분선형모형에서 얻은 예측력 향상은 통계적으로 유의하였다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2018

In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty in the process of selecting GCM and downscaling method for assessing the impact of climate change, and influence of user-centered climate change information on reproducibility of Chungju Dam inflow was analyzed. First, we selected the top 16 GCMs through the evaluation of spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 raw GCMs using 30-year average of 10-day precipitation without any bias-correction. The climate extreme indices including annual total precipitation and annual maximum 1-day precipitation were selected as the relevant indices to the dam inflow. The Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) downscaling method was selected through the evaluation of reproducibility of selected indices and spatial correlation among weather stations. SWAT simulation results for the past 30 years period by considering limitations in weather input showed the satisfactory results with monthly model efficiency of 0.92. The error in average dam inflow according to selection of GCMs and downscaling method showed the bests result when 16 GCMs selected raw GCM analysi were used. It was found that selection of downscaling method rather than selection of GCM is more is important in overall uncertainties. The average inflow for the future period increased in all RCP scenarios as time goes on from near-future to far-future periods. Also, it was predicted that the inflow volume will be higher in the RCP 8.5 scenario than in the RCP 4.5 scenario in all future periods. Maximum daily inflow, which is important for flood control, showed a high changing rate more than twice as much as the average inflow amount. It is also important to understand the seasonal fluctuation of the inflow for the dam management purpose. Both average inflow and maximum inflow showed a tendency to increase mainly in July and August during near-future period while average and maximum inflows increased through the whole period of months in both mid-future and far-future periods.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.381-391
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• 2007

The air quality modeling was carried out to assess the impact of air quality for large scale urban development. The site for the assessment is Multi-fuctional Administrative City which locates in Yeongi-gun, Chungcheongnam-do and estimated population in 2030 is 500,000. Two automatic weather monitoring stations were installed to monitor the meteorological variables for a year and upper air meteorological parameters were measured using radiosonde for 5 days with 4 hours interval in every season. The air quality of standard air pollutants were also measured for 5 days continuously in every season. The results of wind field analysis based on the site measurements and CALMET modeling showed that the valley and mountain winds were prevailed when the sypnotic wind was weak. It also showed that wind speed and directions were highly space-variable within the site basin. The variable wind characteristics implies that the Gaussian dispersion model such ISC3 and AERMOD are not appropriate and the unsteady-sate Lagrangian model such as CALPUFF is preferable. CALPUFF model was applied to assess air quality impact of new sources. The new sources were those for individual and group heating facilities as well as the traffic increases. The results showed that the estimated concentrations of CO and $SO_2$ pollutants by summing the impact concentration of new sources by the dispersion model and the ambient air concentrations by the site measurements were acceptable but those of PM-10 and $NO_2$ would violate ambient air quality standards at several locations due to high ambient air concentrations. It is recommended that the emission reductions near the site should be enforced to improve the ambient air quality.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.237-247
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• 2006

In case of studied area located around the sea, the data measured from the regional meteorological office is highly different from the local weather data because the diffusivity of fugitive dust varies considerably with meteorological conditions. Especially, it is very difficult to predict the amount of fugitive dust accurately as wind speed remains high frequently. In this study, the fluxes of suspended particulates as a function of the friction velocity were applied to consider the effect of wind speed on the amount of fugitive dust generated from the reclamation site. The amount of fugitive dust estimated as mentioned above was simulated by using ISCST3 model. As a result, in case of using only the Fugitive Dust Formula which is usually used in Environment Impact Assessment, the predicted $PM_{10}$ concentrations with points were $43.4{\sim}67.8{\mu}g/m^3$. However, in case of applying to the flux of suspended particulates, the predicted values of $PM_{10}$ with points were $43.3{\sim}69.1{\mu}g/m^3$, $49.5{\sim}90.4{\mu}g/m^3$ and $76.0{\sim}182.6{\mu}g/m^3$ with the wind speeds of 4.4, 5.8 and 7.7m/s, respectively. It could be possible to predict the amount of fugitive dust accurately because these predicted values were similar to the measured values. Consequently, we can establish alternatives for reduction of fugitive dust in this area damaged by fugitive dust which is caused by wind.