• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.31-54
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• 2007

The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-49
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• 2009

Advances in technology have resulted in the emergence of new information systems. The convergence of IT and manufacturing sectors has blurred the boundaries among industries. Also, such convergence has become established as a paradigm to build a new area. Especially the convergence of broadcasting and telecommunication, notably in the case of IPTV (Internet Protocol Television), is among the most salient examples of its kind in recent years as a major case of disruptive technology innovation. Despite its much fanfare, such convergence, however, has not fulfilled the expectation; it has not produced positive economic effects while negatively affecting the growth of IPIV. Stakeholders in and around IPIV including telecommunication companies, broadcasting corporations, and government bodies wish to gain control of IPTV under their wings. IPTV has drifted in the midst of conflicts among the stakeholders in and around IPTV, particularly telecommunication and broadcasting organizations in a broad sense. Our empirical research intends to deal with how audiences accept IPTV and how firms provide IPTV services to utilize their resources. Three research questions in this paper include, first, whether Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) can sufficiently explain the acceptance of IPTV as an information system. The second question concerns with empirically testing the playful aspect of IPTV to increase its audience acceptance. Last, but not least, this paper deals with how firms can efficiently and effectively allocate their limited resources to increase IPTV viewers. To answer those three main questions of our study, we collect data from 197 current subscribers of high speed internet service and/or cable/satellite television. Empirical results show that 'perceived usefulness (PU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU) $\rightarrow$ Intention to use' are significant. Also, 'perceived ease of use' is significantly related to 'perceived usefulness.' Perceived ease of handling IPTV without much effort can positively influence the perceived value of IPTV. In this regard, engineers and designers of IPTV should pay more attention to the user-friendly interface of IPTV. In addition, 'perceived playfulness (PP)' of IPTV is positively related to 'intention to use'. Flow, fun and entertainment have recently gained greater attention in the research concerned with information systems. Such attention is due to the changing features of information systems in recent years that combine the functional and leisure attributes. These results give practical implications to the design of IPTV that reflects not just leisure but also functional elements. This paper also investigates the relationship between 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' and 'perceived playfulness (PP).' PEU is positively related to pp. Audiences without fear can be attracted more easily to the user-friendly IPTV, thereby perceiving the fun and entertainment with ease. Practical implications from this finding are that, to attract more interest and involvement from the audience, IPTV needs to be designed with similar or even more user friendly interface. Of the factors related to 'intention to use', 'perceived usefulness (PU)' and 'perceived ease of use (PEU)' have greater impacts than 'perceived playfulness (PP).' Between PU and PEU, their impacts on 'intention to use' are not significantly different statistically. Managerial implications of this finding are that firms in preparation for the launch of IPTV service should prioritize the functions and interface of IPTV. This empirical paper also provides further insight into the ways in which firms can strategically allocate their limited resources so as to appeal to viewers, both current and potential, of IPTV.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.103-135
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• 2008

We test the hypothesis whether foreign direct investments(hereafter "FDI") can affect the changes of the firm value. In this study, we use a newly developed event study technique, referred to as value-based event study approach(hereafter "VESA"), which is based on the seminal papers of M&M(1958, 1961, 1963) and Lee(2006, 2007). The empirical findings about the effects of FDI's on the intrinsic firm values, which can be measured by intrinsic Q(hereafter "IQ") values of the VESA, are as follows; First, the FDI's are carried out by healthy firms in terms of high IQ's. The IQ values become higher during the post-FDI period than prior to performing FDI's. Second, among the four components of IQ values, the value of assets-in-place, the value of intangible assets, and the value of growth opportunities are all increased during the post-FDI period, except the value of current earnings. Third, the same results are observed in all the samples classified by industry. In sum, thanks to the above findings in this study, we can conclude that the announcements of the FDI's are good and reliable indicators for the firm to signal to the market that the FDI firms are healthy in intrinsic firm values, and also that they have good chances to increase their firm values through the new investments abroad.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1-12
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• 2018

During few decades, Korean economy has been growing with heavy and manufacturing industries. However, the economy meets limitations of growth rate, and employment rate. The Korean government has been trying to overcome these limitations using development of venture businesses and re-organization of industrial ecosystem. These efforts make high survival rate of recent venture companies. There are previous researches about relation between characteristics of entrepreneur and managerial performance, there are several limitations. Firstly, most of papers were based on survey with specific region or industry. Secondly, related researches were carried out with unable to distinguish among firm's survival periods. This paper uses the '2017 Survey of Korea Venture Firms' data that is approved by the Korean government. This data includes whole industries and survival periods. The aim of this research is finding the effect of characteristics of entrepreneur on managerial performance of venture firms by different survival periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). If entrepreneur has doctoral degree, the firm's managerial performance is lower than bachelor degree. In addition, over 10 years of working career, and joint-venture have positive effect on firm's performance. This paper can provide valuable information to venture related policy makers and investment decision makers.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.23-43
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• 1995

This paper is the first part of a research which looks into the regional development process and the quality of life of Youngnam area, and which suggests a prospect and tasks for the future development of the region. Youngnam region has grown rapidly on the basis of labor-intensive light industries and standardized Fordist lage-scale heavy industries through the industrialization and urbanization of South Korea from the 1960s; but recently it has shown a relatively downward trend. The recent economic stagnation of Youngnam region can be seen as a result of uneven regional development in the national scale, which has brought out the increasing subcontracting relation within the region, the geographically excessive concentration of firms, the lack of growth potentiality of high-tech industries, the weakness of producer service, and the shortage of financial activities for capital flows. In addition, construction of physical and social infrastructures and management of urban central functions could not meet properly the rapid economic and urban growth of the region. Because of these problematics inherent in the economy of Yougnam region, the occupational status of regional dwellers is more or less unstable, and the wage level of employee as a whole in Youngnam region is lower than those of Seoul, although the wage level of labourers in manufacturing is relatively high. Moreover, the quality of life of dwellers in the region has some difficulties in the use of resources and ecological environment as well as the unequal provision of means of living and welfare facilities, even though it has been improved materially.

• Journal of the Korea Management Engineers Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.49-72
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• 2018

Before the financial crisis of 1997 in Korea, many industrial sectors across the country have achieved remarkable economic growth since the 1970s because of the development of large-scale equipment industries such as civil engineering, steel, construction and chemical industries. However, after the financial crisis, the economic growth rate has slowed down. Also, the global recession and the rise of China in the global business environment have led to a long-term recession in the national industry as a whole. In current economic environment, it is not easy for the companies even having excellent resources to continue its competitive advantage. Moreover, the chemical industry, which has an influence as a basic industry of other industries, misses the point of transformation into a high value-added industry, as shown in previous research. In order to meet the rapidly changing global business environment, Korean chemical companies should have a dynamic capabilities which to rapidly reallocate and consolidate the resources and capabilities they possess. The dynamic capabilities to convert, rearrange and develop the resources possessed by the company in the direction of creating high added value and to promptly search for, absorb, transform and fuse newly required capabilities and resources should be continuously applied to Korean chemical companies. It is the core competence to secure competitive advantage. In order to secure the dynamic capabilities of the company, the dynamic capabilities of individual employees should be strengthened and employees should be able to demonstrate their own leadership so that they can proactively work and self-manage in a positive direction. Previous studies have focused mainly on the dynamic capabilities of firms. However, the competence of the human resources that make up the enterprise leads to the capabilities of the enterprise, and the human resources themselves are also important corporate resources. This paper focuses on the dynamic capabilities of individuals and strives to clarify the causal relationship between dynamic capabilities, self-leadership, and organizational effectiveness which have direct or indirect effects on management outcome. The reasons for choosing the chemical industry are based on the fact that a domestic chemical companies are in a long-term recession, and they lacks a innovation and value creation capabilities. Also, chemical industry has a large impact on the national economy.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.87-115
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• 2023

This study aims to examine the causal relationships between sales and employment for public technology-based startups. Although there is a limit to statistical generalization due to the poor understanding of the actual conditions of public technology start-up companies, these companies were analyzed by classifying them into high-growth companise, potential growth companies, and other companies. In order to understand the causal relationship, and to estimate the time required to be effective, panel vector autoregression was applied. As a result, the performance creation mechanism was identified as government supoort and private investment was mutually causal with employment, sales did not cause employment, and employment caused sales. In other words, it was found that employment plays an mediator role in public technology based startups' performance mechanism. In addition, private investment had the effect of improving employment and sales in the short time than governments support, and showed that firms with high employment can attract government support and private investment. This study are academically meaningful in that they empirically revealed the process of performance creation, whereas previous studies had only shown whether there was an effect on performance. It also has a policy contribution by suggesting the need for effective policy promotion by considering the 'employment' factor, such as human resource support, as more important.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.191-204
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• 2010

Recently, the CO2 emission and energy consumption have become critical global issues to decide the future of nations. Especially, the spread of IT products and the increased use of internet and web applications result in the energy consumption and CO2 emission of IT industry though information technologies drive global economic growth. EU, the United States, Japan and other developed countries are using IT related environmental regulations such as WEEE(Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment), RoHS(Restriction of the use of Certain Hazardous Substance), REACH(Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of CHemicals) and EuP(Energy using Product), and have established systematic green business/IT strategies to enhance the competitiveness of IT industry. For example, the Japan government proposed the "Green IT initiative" for being compatible with economic growth and environmental protection. Not only energy saving technologies but energy saving systems have been developed for accomplishing sustainable development. Korea's CO2 emission and energy consumption continuously have grown at comparatively high rates. They are related to its industrial structure depending on high energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel Industry, automotive industry, shipbuilding industry, semiconductor industry, and so on. In particular, export proportion of IT manufacturing is quite high in Korea. For example, the global market share of the semiconductor such as DRAM was about 80% in 2008. Accordingly, Korea needs to establish a systematic strategy to respond to the global environmental regulations and to maintain competitiveness in the IT industry. However, green competitiveness of Korea ranked 11th among 15 major countries and R&D budget for green technology is not large enough to develop energy-saving technologies for infrastructure and value chain of low-carbon society though that grows at high rates. Moreover, there are no concrete action plans in Korea. This research aims to deduce the priorities of the Korean green business/IT strategies to use multi attribute weighted average method. We selected a panel of 19 experts who work at the green business related firms such as HP, IBM, Fujitsu and so on, and selected six assessment indices such as the urgency of the technology development, the technology gap between Korea and the developed countries, the effect of import substitution, the spillover effect of technology, the market growth, and the export potential of the package or stand-alone products by existing literature review. We submitted questionnaires at approximately weekly intervals to them for priorities of the green business/IT strategies. The strategies broadly classify as follows. The first strategy which consists of the green business/IT policy and standardization, process and performance management and IT industry and legislative alignment relates to government's role in the green economy. The second strategy relates to IT to support environment sustainability such as the travel and ways of working management, printer output and recycling, intelligent building, printer rationalization and collaboration and connectivity. The last strategy relates to green IT systems, services and usage such as the data center consolidation and energy management, hardware recycle decommission, server and storage virtualization, device power management, and service supplier management. All the questionnaires were assessed via a five-point Likert scale ranging from "very little" to "very large." Our findings show that the IT to support environment sustainability is prior to the other strategies. In detail, the green business /IT policy and standardization is the most important in the government's role. The strategies of intelligent building and the travel and ways of working management are prior to the others for supporting environment sustainability. Finally, the strategies for the data center consolidation and energy management and server and storage virtualization have the huge influence for green IT systems, services and usage This research results the following implications. The amount of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of IT equipment including electrical business equipment will need to be clearly indicated in order to manage the effect of green business/IT strategy. And it is necessary to develop tools that measure the performance of green business/IT by each step. Additionally, intelligent building could grow up in energy-saving, growth of low carbon and related industries together. It is necessary to expand the affect of virtualization though adjusting and controlling the relationship between the management teams.