• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.783-791
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• 2004

In this paper we review recent developments in nonlinear time series modeling on both conditional mean and conditional variance. Traditional linear model in conditional mean is referred to as ARMA(autoregressive moving average) process investigated by Box and Jenkins(1976). Nonlinear mean models such as threshold, exponential and random coefficient models are reviewed and their characteristics are explained. In terms of conditional variances, ARCH(autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) class is considered as typical linear models. As nonlinear variants of ARCH, diverse nonlinear models appearing in recent literature including threshold ARCH, beta-ARCH and Box-Cox ARCH models are remarked. Also, a class of unified nonlinear models are considered and parameter estimation for that class is briefly discussed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.295-304
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• 2019

This article deals with threshold-asymmetric volatility models for over-dispersed and zero-inflated time series of count data. We introduce various threshold integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models as incorporating over-dispersion and zero-inflation via conditional Poisson and negative binomial distributions. EM-algorithm is used to estimate parameters. The cholera data from Kolkata in India from 2006 to 2011 is analyzed as a real application. In order to construct the threshold-variable, both local constant mean which is time-varying and grand mean are adopted. It is noted via a data application that threshold model as an asymmetric version is useful in modelling count time series volatility.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.21-33
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• 2014

This study investigated the effect of protection of property right on foreign direct investment. With the US. multinational corporations over the periods from 2000 to 2008, this study used the FEM and system GMM, and found that the change of protection of property right level positively affects attracting foreign direct investment while protection of property right level itself does not. In the analyses on high income and low income countries(by income level), only the change of protection of property right level positively affects attracting foreign direct investment in low income countries. In considering the problem of heteroscedasticity on the error term, this study used FGLS and PCSE estimation methods. It is reported that the change of protection of property right level positively affects attracting foreign direct investment while protection of property right level itself does not. And only the change of protection of property right level positively affects attracting foreign direct investment in low income countries. This result means the change of protection of property right level is a key determinant to attract foreign direct investment.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.9
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• pp.943-958
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• 2008

This study employs Bayesian regression analysis for fitting discharge rating curves. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian regression analysis were compared to ordinary least square method using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian regression are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits are remarkably reduced with the Bayesian regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, the Bayesian regression is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the data size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to estimate the parameters in rating curve. The merits and demerits of the two types of estimation methods are analyzed through the statistical simulation considering heteroscedasticity. The validation of the Bayesian regression is also performed using real stage-discharge data which were observed at 5 gauges on the Anyangcheon basin. Because the true parameters at 5 gauges are unknown, the quantitative accuracy of the Bayesian regression can not be assessed. However, it can be suggested that the uncertainty in rating curves at 5 gauges be reduced by Bayesian regression.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.241-250
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• 2021

Calibration curves are essential in quantitative methods and for improving the accuracy of analyte measurements in biological samples. In this study, a statistical analysis model built in the R language (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used to identify a set of weighting factors and regression models based on a stepwise selection criteria. An LC-MS/MS method was used to detect the presence of urinary methamphetamine, amphetamine, and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ⁹ -tetrahydrocannabinol in a sample set. Weighting factors for the calibration curves were derived by calculating the heteroscedasticity of the measurements, where the presence of heteroscedasticity was determined via variance tests. The optimal regression model and weighting factor were chosen according to the sum of the absolute percentage relative error. Subsequently, the order of the regression model was calculated using a partial variance test. The proposed statistical analysis tool facilitated selection of the optimal calibration model and detection of methamphetamine, amphetamine, and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol in urine. Thus, this study for the selection of weighting and the use of a complex regression equation may provide insights for linear and quadratic regressions in analytical and bioanalytical measurements.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.849-858
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose a new adaptive single model to track a maneuvering target with abrupt accelerations. We utilize the stochastic differential equation to model acceleration of a maneuvering target with stochastic volatility (SV). We assume the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process as the model for the tracking procedure of the SV. In the proposed scheme, to track a high maneuvering target, we modify the Kalman filtering by introducing a new GARCH model for estimating SV. The proposed tracking algorithm operates in both the non-maneuvering and maneuvering modes, and, unlike the traditional decision-based model, the maneuver detection procedure is eliminated. Furthermore, we stress that the improved performance using the GARCH acceleration model is due to properties inherent in GARCH modeling itself that comply with maneuvering target trajectory. Moreover, the computational complexity of this model is more efficient than that of traditional methods. Finally, the effectiveness and capabilities of our proposed strategy are demonstrated and validated through Monte Carlo simulation studies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1213-1224
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• 2011

In high dimensionality where the number of variables are excessively larger than observations, it is required to remove the noninformative variables to cluster observations. Most model-based approaches for variable selection have been considered under the assumption of homoscedasticity and their models are mainly estimated by a penalized likelihood method. In this paper, a different approach is proposed to remove the noninformative variables effectively and to cluster based on the modified normal mixture model simultaneously. The validity of the model was provided and an EM algorithm was derived to estimate the parameters. Simulation studies and an experiment using real microarray dataset showed the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose automatic procedures for the model selection of various univariate time series data. Automatic model selection is important, especially in data mining with large number of time series, for example, the number (in thousands) of signals accessing a web server during a specific time period. Several methods have been proposed for automatic model selection of time series. However, most existing methods focus on linear time series models such as exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. The key feature that distinguishes the proposed procedures from previous approaches is that the former can be used for both linear time series models and nonlinear time series models such as threshold autoregressive(TAR) models and autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH) models. The proposed methods select a model from among the various models in the prediction error sense. We also provide an R package autots that implements the proposed automatic model selection procedures. In this paper, we illustrate these algorithms with the artificial and real data, and describe the implementation of the autots package for R.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.341-357
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• 1996

Some empirical studies have shown that asset prices respond to announcements of economic news, however, others also have found little evidence. This study assesses how market participants of the S&P 500 Index Futures reacted to the U.S. economic news announcements. For this purpose, using a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, we use several U.S. news variables, its each surprise component and interest rates. We find that some economic news variables affected significantly on the S&P 500 Index Futures. In other words, we find that weekend variable, lagged volatility, and surprise component of trade deficit increased level of volatility. However, interest rate, M1, unemployment announcements caused the variance of the S&P 500 Index Futures to reduce, and each of the surprise component of M1 and trade deficit increased it. The result suggests that resolution of uncertainty, through economic news announcement, while, in some cases, causes market participants to reduce their forecast of volatility, a large difference between the market's forecast and the realization of the series causes the volatility to increase.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

The paper aims to examine whether business cycles affect the link between financial development and bank risk, measured by Zscore and non-performing loans to total loans in six Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. This study uses a sample of 95 listed commercial banks over a 15-year period between 2004 and 2018 in the six Southeast Asian countries. This study employs panel OLS regression and modifications to tackle issues such as endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. The results show that the impact of stock market development (the ratio of the market capitalization to GDP) on Zscore is significantly positive, whereas its effect on non-performing loans is significantly negative. The findings suggest that financial development, in terms of stock market capitalization, improves banks' Zscores and reduces their level of non-performing loans, suggesting that financial development on average reduces bank risk. The impact of business cycle is insignificant towards bank risk, thus rejecting both counter- and pro-cyclical hypotheses, except for the case of risk indicator of loan loss provisions. Examining the joint effect of the business cycle and financial development on bank risk, we find that the phase of business cycles generally does not moderate the link between financial development and bank risk.