• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard Model

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Bayes Estimation for the Rayleigh Failure Model

  • Ko, Jeong-Hwan;Kang, Sang-Gil;Shin, Jae-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and hazard rate function based on type-II censored samples from a Rayleigh failure model. Bayes calculations can be implemented easily by means of the Gibbs sampler. A numerical study is provided.

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Conceptual Design of a Hazard Evaluation Process for Constructing the Korean Hazard Information System : Focused on Flood Hazard (한국형 재해정보시스템 구축을 위한 재해평가 프로세스 개념설계 : 홍수재해를 중심으로)

  • Jeong, Keun-Chae
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.365-377
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, for constructing the Korean Hazard Information System (KHIS), we conceptually design a hazard evaluation process. We first deal with a hazard evaluation process focused on flood hazard to give the most immense damage and loss. The hazard evaluation process is consist of a damage evaluation process and a loss evaluation process, and is used for transforming hazards from natural disasters into economic measures. The proposed process is developed based on the famous FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)'s $HAZAS^{@MH}$methodology. We modify the FEMA's process to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, that is all losses from the hazards are included into the estimation process but the losses are not duplicated in the process. In addition to this, we define the loss process specifically by considering the characteristics from the hazard environments of Korea. We can expect that KHIS for evaluating economic losses from natural hazards can be developed based on the conceptual design for the economic loss evaluation process, and KHIS can be used as a useful tool for analyzing the feasibilities of mitigation plans in central/local governments.

Typhoon wind hazard analysis using the decoupling approach

  • Hong, Xu;Li, Jie
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2022
  • Analyzing the typhoon wind hazards is crucial to determine the extreme wind load on engineering structures in the typhoon prone region. In essence, the typhoon hazard analysis is a high-dimensional problem with randomness arising from the typhoon genesis, environmental variables and the boundary layer wind field. This study suggests a dimension reduction approach by decoupling the original typhoon hazard analysis into two stages. At the first stage, the randomness of the typhoon genesis and environmental variables are propagated through the typhoon track model and intensity model into the randomness of the key typhoon parameters. At the second stage, the probability distribution information of the key typhoon parameters, combined with the randomness of the boundary layer wind field, could be used to estimate the extreme wind hazard. The Chinese southeast coastline is taken as an example to demonstrate the adequacy and efficiency of the suggested decoupling approach.

Regional Analysis of Unemployment Hazard Rate and the Influencing Factors on It (지역별 실업탈출확률 및 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Insoo
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.111-151
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    • 2003
  • This study attempted to analize the hazard rate from unemployment and the influncing factors on the rate by regions. The data this study uses is Korea Labor Institute Panal Study(1998-2001) and the models are hazard analysis and Cox model. The results of hazard analysis are as follow. In capital and it's vicinity, the duration of unemployment is shorter than other regions even if the unemployment rate is higher. The labor market segmentation is confirmed between capital and it's vicinity region and other regions. Kyungsang region is higher in the unemployment hazard rate than Chunla or Chungchung regions. The duration of unemployment in capital and it's vicinity is 9.29 months comparing 11.86 months in the other region. The difference is statistically significant by the significance level 0.001. The duration of unemployment in Kyungsang is 6.96 months comparing 10.95 months in Chunla region. The Cox results which indicate the influncing factors on the hazard rate are as follow. In the regions like non-metro cities and non-capital and vicinitiy, the factors such as female, tenure, wage earners, manufacturing, wholesale and retale decrease the hazard rate. The results indicate that active labor market policies region by region are needed in Korea, especially for the marginal unemployed workes from non flourishing sectors.

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Design and Implementation of Community-based Hazard Mapping Support System Based on Mobile Cloud in Traditional Towns with Local Heritage

  • Min, Byung-won
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2018
  • This paper describes the design and trial development of a system that supports continuous hazard mapping by local residents in their daily life. We performed an interview survey to design our system in a model traditional town in Saga Prefecture, Japan. The results show that despite continued efforts, many practical problems remain and residents feel unsafe. Considering these results, we designed and developed a unique information and communication technology-based support system that contributes to community-based disaster prevention and reduction. The continuous resident participation and posting design are the core concept for our community-based approach. Our system continues to support making a hazard map by integrating the community-based hazard information. Local residents register information (disaster types, risk level, photographs, comments, positional information) about locations that could be dangerous in a disaster. In addition, our system enables information sharing through a Web server. We expect that this information sharing will allow local hazard information for each district to be used.

Analysis of Hazard of Disaster in the Aspect of Human Damage (인적 피해 중심의 재해취약성 분석)

  • Wang, Soon-Joo;Lee, Myung-Sun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2007
  • The definition and concept of disasters and their preparedness have been changing according to the modern situation. The basic change is that the concept of absolute standard and prevention of hardware damage in the past have been changing to the concept of relative standard and mitigation of direct damage to human. For achieving the purpose, advanced countries developed and used their own analysis method of hazard and vulnerability for disaster ; ASHE hazard and vulnerability evaluation method, hazard matrix method by CDC, FEMA model method and SMUG hazard priority method. Because each analysis method cannot evaluate the hazard and vulnerability for specific disaster, the advantages and disadvantages should be applied for specific situation of disaster in Korea and new analysis method should be extracted in the future.

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Design and Implementation of Community-based Hazard Mapping Support System for Traditional Towns with Local Heritage

  • Min, Byung-won
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2018
  • This paper describes the design and trial development of a system that supports continuous hazard mapping by local residents in their daily life. We performed an interview survey to design our system in a model traditional town in Saga Prefecture, Japan. The results show that despite continued efforts, many practical problems remain and residents feel unsafe. Considering these results, we designed and developed a unique information and communication technology-based support system that contributes to community-based disaster prevention and reduction. The continuous resident participation and posting design are the core concept for our community-based approach. Our system continues to support making a hazard map by integrating the community-based hazard information. Local residents register information (disaster types, risk level, photographs, comments, positional information) about locations that could be dangerous in a disaster. In addition, our system enables information sharing through a Web server. We expect that this information sharing will allow local hazard information for each district to be used.

A study on the u-City hazard mitigation services in KT (KT u-City 방재 서비스 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Bum-Gyo;Kim, Hyung-Woo
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.365-368
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    • 2008
  • The concept of "ubiquitous" has become the top issue of the 21st century communications field within the past years. u-City has become the new city paradigm with the convergence of city planning and ubiquitous communication technologies and services. Starting from 2004, KT has collaborated with the Korean government to develop comfortable, convenient, pleasant, safe, and healthy IT technology based u-City focusing on; balanced development, value creation, and improved standard of living within the region. Presently the term, "hazard mitigation services" lacks a clear definition due to its varying applications by different local agencies and has caused confusion. Therefore, this report will clarify and define u-City hazard mitigation services currently proposed to the local agencies as well as services currently in effect. Additionally, the report will introduce hazard mitigation service models feasible by KT.

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Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of a masonry tower considering local site effects

  • Ozden Saygili
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2024
  • A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

Development of flood hazard and risk maps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, key study of the Zujevina River

  • Emina, Hadzic;Giuseppe Tito, Aronica;Hata, Milisic;Suvada, Suvalija;Slobodanka, Kljucanin;Ammar, Saric;Suada, Sulejmanovic;Fehad, Mujic
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2022
  • Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena that affect populations, environment, social, political, and ecological systems. After the catastrophic floods that have hit Europe and the World in recent decades, the flood problem has become more current. At the EU level, a legal framework has been put in place with the entry into force of Directive 2007/60/EC on Flood Risk Assessment and Management (Flood Directive). Two years after the entry into force of the Floods Directive, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), has adopted a Regulation on the types and content of water protection plans, which takes key steps and activities under the Floods Directive. The "Methodology for developing flood hazard and risk maps" (Methodology) was developed for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, following the methodology used in the majority of EU member states, but with certain modifications to the country's characteristics. Accordingly, activities for the preparation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment for each river basin district were completed in 2015 for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Activities on the production of hazard maps and flood risk maps are in progress. The results of probable climate change impact model forecasts should be included in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans, which is the subsequent phase of implementing the Flood Directive. By the foregoing, the paper will give an example of the development of the hydrodynamic model of the Zujevina River, as well as the development of hazard and risk maps. Hazard and risk maps have been prepared for medium probability floods of 1/100 as well as for high probability floods of 1/20. The results of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) recording were used to create a digital terrain model (DMR). It was noticed that there are big differences between the flood maps obtained by recording LiDAR techniques in relation to the previous flood maps obtained using georeferenced topographic maps. Particular attention is given to explaining the Methodology applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina.