• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.171-181
• /
• 1999

The half of njuries by carrying-unloading machinery was injuries due to crane. The purpose of this study was to analyze present condition of injuries by the crane, to investigate hazard management model, injury prevention technique, and to suggest safety countermeasures of crane working. The hazard management model is composed of 5 rules and 10 methods. The rules are to remove, separate, protect, make up and correspond. Prior to this crane countermeasures, general protection for head, foot and hand are needed. Hazard prevention affects on industrial management economically and psychologically. The preparation of safety countermeasures are very important for the prevention of industrial injuries, The countermeasures are setting-up of safety culture, active and rationale safety education. As the industrial safety and health system should be performed for the employees' health and life, the industrial competitive power and productivity would be improved.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한안전경영과학회 1999년도 추계학술대회
• /
• pp.83-95
• /
• 1999

The half of injuries by carrying-unloading machinery was injuries due to crane. The purpose of this study was to analyze present condition of injuries by the crane, to investigate hazard management model, injury prevention technique, and to suggest safety countermeasures of crane working. The hazard management model is composed of 5 rules and 10 methods. The rules are to remove, separate, protect, make up and correspond. Prior to this crane countermeasures, general protection for head, foot and hand are needed. Hazard prevention affects on industrial management economically and psychologically. The preparation of safety countermeasures are very important for the prevention of industrial injuries. The countermeasures are setting-up of safety culture, active and rationale safety education. As the industrial safety and health system should be performed for the employees' health and life, the industrial competitive power and productivity would be improved.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.1-6
• /
• 2005

To improve safety management of railway and cope with the factors to threat technical and social safety, we need to establish railway safety management system based on analysis of hazards and assessment of risk for railway system. So we have to conduct PHA(Preliminary Hazard Analysis) first to understand weak points and factors to possibly threat safety using analysis of related data such as past accident/incident data and safety regulation and classification standards of hazards/causes of railway accidents. Therefore in this research, we led types/dangerous events/causes of risks/factors of risks from hazard log developed based on railway accident classification and hazards of railway accident. PHA model for domestic railway system will be used in risk analysis and risk assessment of railway accident.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제51권2호
• /
• pp.607-617
• /
• 2019

Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an exceedance frequency of $10^{-7}/yr$. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.723-736
• /
• 2013

해약율의 추정은 최근 보험제도의 변화 (국제회계기준의 도입에 따른 현금흐름방식의 가격산출체계 시행, 무해약환급금 보험상품의 판매 허용 등)에 따라 보험료의 결정과 손익분석 그리고 리스크 관리 등에 있어서 중요한 요소로 부각되고 있다. 특히, 변액연금은 최저보증옵션으로 인하여 보험계약자의 해약요소가 중요시되고 다른 보험 상품에 비해 복잡하므로 차별성 있는 통계모형의 선택과 분석이 필요하다. 기존의 해약률 연구는 실태분석 또는 회귀분석을 위주로 모형화하는 것에 초점이 맞추어져 있었으나 본 연구에서는 변액연금 계약과 관련된 여러 변수와 최저보증옵션을 반영하기 위하여 생존분석기법 중 하나인 Cox 비례위험모형을 이용하여 해지율을 추정하였다. 변액연금 해지율에 영향을 미치는 주요변수로는 납입방법, 보험료, 보험기간 대비 유지기간, 계약자적립금 대비 최소보증금, 계약자연령이 있으며 본 연구에서는 이에 관하여 분석해보았다.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제34권6호
• /
• pp.957-968
• /
• 2021

역중도절단확률가중(inverse censoring probability weighting, ICPW)은 생존분석에서 흔히 사용되는 방법이다. 중도절단 회귀모형과 같은 ICPW 방법의 응용에 있어서 중도절단 확률의 정확한 추정은 핵심적인 요소라고 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 중도절단 확률의 추정이 ICPW 기반 중도절단 회귀모형의 성능에 어떠한 영향을 주는지 모의실험을 통하여 알아보았다. 모의실험에서는 Kaplan-Meier 추정량, Cox 비례위험(proportional hazard) 모형 추정량, 그리고 국소 Kaplan-Meier 추정량 세 가지를 비교하였다. 국소 KM 추정량에 대해서는 차원의 저주를 피하기 위해 공변량의 차원축소 방법을 추가적으로 적용하였다. 차원축소 방법으로는 흔히 사용되는 주성분분석(principal component analysis, PCA)과 절단역회귀(sliced inverse regression)방법을 고려하였다. 그 결과 Cox 비례위험 추정량이 평균 및 중위수 중도절단 회귀모형 모두에서 중도절단 확률을 추정하는 데 가장 좋은 성능을 보여주었다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
• /
• 제27권5호
• /
• pp.221-230
• /
• 2023

This study proposes a methodology for assessing seismic liquefaction hazard by implementing high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) ground models with high-density/high-precision site investigation data acquired in an area of interest, which would be linked to geotechnical numerical analysis tools. It is possible to estimate the vulnerability of earthquake-induced geotechnical phenomena (ground motion amplification, liquefaction, landslide, etc.) and their triggering complex disasters across an area for urban development with several stages of high-density datasets. In this study, the spatial-ground models for city development were built with a 3D high-precision grid of 5 m × 5 m × 1 m by applying geostatistic methods. Finally, after comparing each prediction error, the geotechnical model from the Gaussian sequential simulation is selected to assess earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards. In particular, with seven independent input earthquake motions, liquefaction analysis with finite element analyses and hazard mappings with LPI and LSN are performed reliably based on the spatial geotechnical models in the study area. Furthermore, various phenomena and parameters, including settlement in the city planning area, are assessed in terms of geotechnical vulnerability also based on the high-resolution spatial-ground modeling. This case study on the high-precision 3D ground model-based zonations in the area of interest verifies the usefulness in assessing spatially earthquake-induced hazards and geotechnical vulnerability and their decision-making support.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제81권4호
• /
• pp.513-522
• /
• 2022

Steel-concrete composite segments replacing the conventional reinforced concrete segments can provide the rectangular shield tunnel superiorities on bearing capacity, ductility and economy. A simplified model with high-efficiency on computation is proposed for investigating the nonlinear response of the rectangular tunnel lining composed of composite segments. The simulation model is developed by an assembly of nonlinear fiber beam elements and spring elements to express the transfer mechanism of forces through components of composite segments, and radial joints. The simulation is conducted with the considerations of material nonlinearity and geometric nonlinearity associated with the whole loading process. The validity of the model is evaluated through comparison of the proposed nonlinear simulation with results obtained from the full-scale test of the segmental tunnel lining. Furthermore, a parameter study is conducted by means of the simplified model. The results show that the stiffness of the radial joint at haunch of the ling and the thickness of inner steel plate of segments have remarkable influence on the behaviour of the lining.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지진공학회 2002년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.28-35
• /
• 2002

The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for engineering needs several active fault parameters as input data. Fault slip rates, the segmentation model for each fault, and the date of the most recent large earthquake in seismic hazard analysis are the critical pieces of information required to characterize behavior of the faults. Slip rates provide a basis for calculating earthquake recurrence intervals. Segmentation models define potential rupture lengths and are inputs to earthquake magnitude. The most recent event is used in time-dependent probability calculations. These data were assembled by expert source-characterization groups consisting of geologists, geophysicists, and seismologists evaluating the information available for earth fault. The procedures to prepare inputs for seismic hazard are illustrated with possible segmentation scenarios of capable fault models and the seismic hazards are evaluated to see the implication of considering capable faults models.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제23권5호
• /
• pp.399-409
• /
• 2016

Many of studies have suggested the modifications on Weibull distribution to model the non-monotone hazards. In this paper, we combine two cumulative hazard functions and propose a new modified Weibull distribution function. The newly suggested distribution will be named as a new flexible Weibull distribution. Corresponding hazard function of the proposed distribution shows flexible (monotone or non-monotone) shapes. We study the characteristics of the proposed distribution that includes ageing behavior, moment, and order statistic. We also discuss an estimation method for its parameters. The performance of the proposed distribution is compared with existing modified Weibull distributions using various types of hazard functions. We also use real data example to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed distribution.