• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.20 no.5
• /
• pp.405-416
• /
• 2013

This paper develops a maximum profile likelihood estimator of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution based on upper record values. We propose an approximate maximum profile likelihood estimator for a scale parameter. In addition, we derive Bayes estimators of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution using Lindley's approximation under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. We assess the validity of the proposed method by using real data and compare these estimators based on estimated risk through a Monte Carlo simulation.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.371-387
• /
• 2014

Probability plotting positions are popular and used as the basis for distribution fitting and for inspecting the quality of the fit because of its simplicity. The plotting positions that lead to excellent approximation to the mean of the order statistics should be used if the objective of the fitting is to estimate quantiles. Since the mean depends on the sample size and is not amenable for simple to use closed form solution, many plotting positions have been presented in the literature, including a new plotting position that is derived based on the weighted least-squares method. In this study, the accuracy of using the new plotting position to fit the Gumbel distribution for estimating quantiles is assessed. Also, plotting positions derived by fitting the mean of the order statistics for all ranks is proposed, and an approximation to the covariance of the order statistics for the Gumbel (and Weibull) variate is given. Relative bias and root-mean-square-error of the estimated quantiles by using the proposed plotting position are shown. The use of the proposed plotting position to estimate the quantiles of annual maximum wind speed is illustrated.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.215-230
• /
• 2016

The powers of some tests for independence hypothesis against positive (negative) quadrant dependence in generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern distribution are compared graphically by simulation. Some of these tests are usual linear rank tests of independence. Two other possible rank tests of independence are locally most powerful rank test and a powerful nonparametric test based on the $Cram{\acute{e}}r-von$ Mises statistic. We also evaluate the empirical power of the class of distribution-free tests proposed by Kochar and Gupta (1987) based on the asymptotic distribution of a U-statistic and the test statistic proposed by $G{\ddot{u}}ven$ and Kotz (2008) in generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern distribution. Tests of independence are also compared for sample sizes n = 20, 30, 50, empirically. Finally, we apply two examples to illustrate the results.

• Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.401-407
• /
• 2011

The paper deals with characterization of standard Gumbel distribution and standard $Fr{\acute{e}}chet$ distribution and was motivated by [4], where the Weibull distribution is characterized. We present criterions using the independence of some suitable functions of lower records in a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables $\{X_n,\;n{\geq}1\}$.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.201-201
• /
• 2016

The asymptotic extreme value distributions of maxima are a natural choice when designing against future extreme events like flood peaks or wave heights, given a stationary time series. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is often utilised in this context because it is seen as a convenient single expression for extreme event analysis. However, the GEV has a drawback because the location of the distribution bound relative to the data is a discontinuous function of the GEV shape parameter. That is, for annual maxima approximated by the Gumbel distribution, the data is also consistent with a GEV distribution with an upper bound (no lower bound) or a GEV distribution with a lower bound (no upper bound). A more consistent single extreme value expression for design purposes is proposed as the Weibull distribution of smallest extremes, as applied to transformed annual maxima. The Weibull distribution limit holds here for sufficiently large sample sizes, irrespective of the extreme value domain of attraction applicable to the untransformed maxima. The Gumbel, Type 2, and Type 3 extreme value distributions thus become redundant, together with the GEV, because in reality there is only a single asymptotic extreme value distribution required for design purposes - the Weibull distribution of minima as applied to transformed maxima. An illustrative synthetic example is given showing transformed maxima from the normal distribution approaching the Weibull limit much faster than the untransformed sample maxima approach the normal distribution Gumbel limit. Some New Zealand examples are given with the Weibull distribution being applied to reciprocal transformations of annual flood maxima, where the untransformed maxima follow apparently different extreme value distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2008.05a
• /
• pp.173-178
• /
• 2008

확률도시위치는 주로 도시적 해석을 통한 연최대홍수량 또는 연최대강우량의 초과확률의 추정치 산정에 사용되며 빈도해석을 통해 선정된 적정 확률분포형과 표본자료의 개략적인 적합도를 도시적으로 파악할 수 있도록 해주기 때문에 오래 전부터 널리 이용되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 Gumbel 분포에 적합한 도시위치공식을 새롭게 추정하기 위해 Gumbel 분포의 order statistic과 확률가중모멘트를 이용하여 다양한 표본크기에 대한 도시위치공식의 기본식을 유도하였고, 최적화 기법 중 하나인 유전자 알고리즘을 이용하여 유도된 도시위치공식의 매개변수를 추정하였다. 또한 본 연구에서 추정된 도시위치공식과 기존에 널리 사용되고 있는 도시 치공식의 정확도를 비교하기 위해 reduced variate 간의 오차를 계산하여 비교 검토하였다. 그 결과, 금회 추정된 도시위치공식은 높은 순위에서는 기존의 도시위치공식에 비해 더 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났고, 표본크기에 대한 순위를 모두 고려할 경우에는 기존의 도시위치공식에 비해 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타나 Gumbel 분포에 대해서 높은 정확도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.460-466
• /
• 2018

With the development of information technology, the scale of computer software system is constantly expanding. Reliability and cost of software development have a great impact on software quality. In this study, based on the software failure interval time data, a comparative analysis was performed on the characteristics of the software development cost model based on the lifetime distribution following the Type-2 Gumbel and Erlang distribution in the NHPP model. As a result, the trends of the cost curves for the Go-Okumoto model and the proposed Erlang model and the Type-2 Gumble model both decreased in the initial stage and gradually increased in the latter half of the failure time. Also, Comparing the Erlang model with the Type-2 Gumble model, we found that the Erlang model is faster and more cost-effective at launch. Through this study, Software operators should remove possible defects from the testing phase rather than the operational phase to reduce defects after the software release date, it is expected to be able to study the prior information needed to understand the characteristic of software development cost.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.50 no.3
• /
• pp.211-221
• /
• 2017

In statistical hydrology, various extreme distributions such as the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO) and Gumbel (GUM) models have been widely used to analyze the extreme events. In the case of rainfall events in South Korea, the GEV and Gumbel distributions are known to be appropriate among various extreme distribution models. However, the proper probability distribution model may be different depending on the type of extreme events, rainfall duration, region, and statistical characteristics of extreme events. In this regard, it is necessary to apply a wide range of statistical properties that can be represented by the distribution model because it has two shape parameters. In this study, the statistical applicability of rainfall data is analyzed using the Burr XII distribution and the dimensionless L-moment ratio for 620 stations in South Korea. For this purpose, L-skewness and L-kurtosis of the Burr XII distribution are derived and L-moment ratio diagram is drawn and then the applicability of 620 stations was analyzed. As a result, it is found that the Burr XII distribution for the stations of the Han River basin in which L-skewness is relatively larger than L-kurtosis is appropriate, It is possibility of replacing the distribution of commonly used Gumbel or GEV distributions. Therefore, the Burr XII model can be replaced as an appropriate probability model in this basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.39 no.8 s.169
• /
• pp.659-668
• /
• 2006

The uncertainty of the risk of failure of hydraulic structures can be determined by estimating the variance of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood assuming that the underlying model is the Gumbel distribution. In this paper, the variance of the risk of failure was derived. Monte Carlo simulation was peformed to verify the characteristics of the derived formulas for various sample size, design life, nonexceedance probability, and variation coefficient. As the results, PWM showed the smallest relative bias and root mean square error than the others while ML showed the smallest ones for relatively large sample siBes regardless of design life and nonexceedance probability. Also, it was found that variation coefficient does not effect on the relative bias and relative root mean square error.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.211-217
• /
• 2019

In this study, we compare and analyze the attributes of the software development cost model according to the shape parameters change of the Type-2 Gumbel lifetime distribution using the NHPP model. In order to analyze the software failure phenomena, the parametric estimation is applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the nonlinear equations are calculated using the bisection method. As a result, when the attributes of the cost curves according to the change of shape parameters are compared, it is found that the larger the number of shape parameters, the lower the software development cost and the faster the release time. Through this study, it is expected that it will be helpful for the software developers to search for the development cost according to the software shape parameters change, and also to provide the necessary information for the attributes of the software development cost.