• Title/Summary/Keyword: Global Market Forecast

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Status of the technology development of large scale HTS generators for wind turbine

  • Le, T.D.;Kim, J.H.;Kim, D.J.;Boo, C.J.;Kim, H.M.
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2015
  • Large wind turbine generators with high temperature superconductors (HTS) are in incessant development because of their advantages such as weight and volume reduction and the increased efficiency compared with conventional technologies. In addition, nowadays the wind turbine market is growing in a function of time, increasing the capacity and energy production of the wind farms installed and increasing the electrical power for the electrical generators installed. As a consequence, it is raising the wind power energy contribution for the global electricity demand. In this study, a forecast of wind energy development will be firstly emphasized, then it continue presenting a recent status of the technology development of large scale HTSG for wind power followed by an explanation of HTS wire trend, cryogenics cooling systems concept, HTS magnets field coil stability and other technological parts for optimization of HTS generator design - operating temperature, design topology, field coil shape and level cost of energy, as well. Finally, the most relevant projects and designs of HTS generators specifically for offshore wind power systems are also mentioned in this study.

The Present State of Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring System (풍력 터빈 상태 감시 시스템 현황)

  • Clark, Timothy J.;Bauer, Richard F.;Rasmussen, James R.;Jeong, J.H.;Lee, B.J.;Lee, C.M.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.92-97
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    • 2005
  • The $9 billion US global wind energy market is experiencing dramatic growth with installed generating capacity up 500% from 7,600 MW at the end of 1997 to nearly 39,300 MW at the end of 2003. With an average annual increase approaching 32%, wind is the world's fastest growing energy source on a percentage basis, and its growth is forecast to continue a double-digit pace into the next decade 1. While much of this growth is fueled by government decisions that are favorable to 'green' or renewable Power, it is also fueled by advances in wind turbine technology as evidenced by larger, more sophisticated machines. As a result, wind turbines are becoming more established as an economically viable alternative to fossil-fueled power generation. Today, wind 'farms' - consisting of anywhere from a single turbine to as many as several hundred turbines - are an important component of the world's source of electric energy.

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PRESENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF PORTS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

  • Ha, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 2002
  • The continuing pace of technological change and the trend toward larger and faster ships is evident as shipping lines compete in seeking economies of scale in the global market and ports. become increasingly reliant on sophisticated equipment. Across the Asia and Pacific region some of the worlds most modern container ships are calling at an extensive network of mainline and feeder ports. This paper shows that during the period from 1999 to 2011, Asian container trade is expected to continue to increase more rapidly than the world average, i.e., 7.2 per cent per annum compared with the world average of 6.3 per cent. It is forecast that the total volumes of international containers handled at the ports in Asia and the Pacific will increase at an average growth rate of 7,2 per cent per annum. In order to handle the anticipated port container traffic in 2011, new container berths are required in nearly every country in the Asia and the Pacific region. This will entail very significant capital investment requirements. If countries in the UNESCAP region are to position their ports to meet the challenges of the next decade, there is an urgent need to implement more robust strategies to address important issues including prioritisation of port development projects, promotion of private sector participation in ports, emphasis on productivity and preparation for intermodal integration and logistics growth.

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A Study on Countermeasures of Electronic Component Industry according to Korean Emission Trading Scheme Enforcement (국내 배출권거래제 시행에 따른 전자부품산업 대응방안 연구)

  • Choi, Eun Kyung;Lim, Hoseon;Lee, Min Young;Shin, Seung-chol
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 2014
  • The continued efforts to reduce GHG emission by international cooperation and each country are in progress. As part of these efforts, Korea's ETS is enforced in 2015. This was the time to make strategies for each company to respond Korea's ETS. This study was performed to suggest a draft of basic strategies for electronic component industry in current Korea's ETS stage are as follows; - Analyzing the nature of electronic component industry - Identifying needs for corresponding ETS of electronic component industry - Analyzing basic countermeasures for each stage of ETS - Suggesting drafts of basic strategies for electronic component industry in current Korea's ETS stage The result of this study, the current stage of Korea's ETS is moving from implementation of the scheme become determined and prepare the minimum corresponding to direct corresponding to the regulation and market change. Electronic component industry has many GHG emission growth(or change) factor, and it will be make electronic component industry as a buyer when Korea's ETS is enforced. Korea's ETS will be clearly act as a regulation rather than new business for electronic component industry. Therefore, identifying the Korea's ETS as a regulation is resonable strategy for corresponding the scheme. The basic strategies of electronic component industry th responding Korea's ETS are as follows; - Building internal organization and decision-making system before enforcement the Korea's ETS - Establishing internal basic corresponding strategies according to carbon price forecast scenarios - Considering the energy consumption and GHG emissions in design phase and preparing the global ETS market in mid or long term.

Comparative Analysis of Solar Power Generation Prediction AI Model DNN-RNN (태양광 발전량 예측 인공지능 DNN-RNN 모델 비교분석)

  • Hong, Jeong-Jo;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2022
  • In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the main culprit of global warming, the United Nations signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992. Korea is also pursuing a policy to expand the supply of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of renewable energy development using solar power led to the expansion of wind power and solar power generation. The expansion of renewable energy development, which is greatly affected by weather conditions, is creating difficulties in managing the supply and demand of the power system. To solve this problem, the power brokerage market was introduced. Therefore, in order to participate in the power brokerage market, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generation. In this paper, the prediction system was used to analyze the Yonchuk solar power plant. As a result of applying solar insolation from on-site (Model 1) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (Model 2), it was confirmed that accuracy of Model 2 was 3% higher. As a result of comparative analysis of the DNN and RNN models, it was confirmed that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model improved by 1.72%.

The Impact of Product Variety in The Supply Chain: An Integrative Review and Future Research Direction (제품다양성이 공급사슬에 미치는 영향: 종합리뷰 및 미래연구방향)

  • Youngah Kim
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-89
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    • 2005
  • In recent decades, product variety has increased dramatically in most industries. Rapidly evolving technologies, global competition, and sophisticated customers have contributed to an increase in product variety in many industries. In this paper, I study the impact of product variety on several businesses in the supply chain through literature review. By study of literature. this paper presents the benefits and drawbacks of increasing product variety on functions performed in several departments, such as engineering, manufacturing, purchasing, logistics and marketing. It provides a brief overview of the various techniques like modularity, component sharing, and platform-based development, which are helpful in reducing the costs, when designing for variety. It also provides a brief overview of order processing, purchased component/part variety, which are helpful in reducing the purchasing costs, and customer satisfaction, market advantage, market share, competitive advantage and demand forecast, which are useful in impact of product variety on marketing. Future research directions are discussed.

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Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

A Demand forecasting for Electric vehicles using Choice Based Multigeneration Diffusion Model (선택기반 다세대 확산모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요예측 방법론 개발)

  • Chae, Ah-Rom;Kim, Won-Kyu;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Jong
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

The Foreign Asset Leverage Effect of Oil & Gas Companies after the Financial Crisis (금융위기 이후 정유산업의 외화자산 레버리지효과 분석)

  • Dong-Gyun Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Tkachenko, Tetiana;Pryhara, Olha;Zatsepina, Nataly;Bryk, Stepan;Holubets, Iryna;Havryliuk, Alla
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.664-674
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    • 2021
  • The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.