• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1993년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.159-162
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• 1993

A new approach using fuzzy dynamic programming is proposed for the flexible long-term generation mix under uncertain circumstances. A characteristic feature of the presented approach is that not only fuzziness in fuel and construction cost. load growth and reliability but also many constraints of generation mix can easily be taken into account by using fuzzy dynamic programming. The method can accommodate arbitrary shape of membership function as well as the operation of pump-generator. And so more realistic solution can be obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by the best generation mix problem of KEPCO-system which contains nuclear, coal, LNG, oil and pump-generator hydro plant in multi-years.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제25권10호
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• pp.28-37
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• 2011

Though Korea has introduced CBP(Cost Based pool) power trading system since 2001, long-term Generation system planning has been executed by government for Cost minimization every 2 years. Until currently the model which is used for Generation system planning and best-mix only considers cost minimization and total yearly or quarterly electricity demand every year. In a view point of one day power supply operation, technical characteristics, like the ramp up/down rate of total generation system, minimum up/down time and GFRQ(Governor Free Response Quantity), are very important. this paper analyzes Optimal Fuel-Mix for 2022 Korea generation system satisfying these constraints of each fuel type and considering pump storage plants, construction cost and $CO_2$ emission charge Using MILP(Mixed Integer Linear Programming) method. Also the sensitivity analysis which follows in future power industry environmental change accomplished.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.201-229
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• 2019

제7차 전력수급기본계획과 제8차 전력수급기본계획이 고려하는 핵심가치의 범위는 다르다. 전자는 공급안정성과 경제성을, 후자는 여기에 더해서 환경성과 발전 설비의 안전성도 포함하였다. 이는 전원 구성의 전환을 가져왔다. 이에 본 논문에서는 제7차 전력수급기본계획과 제8차 전력수급기본계획의 전원 구성 변화에 따른 영향을 전기요금측면에서 경제성으로, $CO_2$ 배출량과 대기오염물질(NOx, SOx, PM) 배출량측면에서 환경성으로 대표하여 추정하였다. 더하여 전원 구성과 전력수요 전망을 조합 및 절충하는 시나리오들을 설정하여 경제성과 환경성간의 관계를 고려하는 다수의 전원 구성 전환 경로를 검토하였다. 전력계통 모의 전산모형인 M-CORE를 이용한 분석 결과에 따르면 제7차 전력수급기본계획에서 제8차 전력수급기본계획으로의 전원 구성 전환은 중 장기에 전기요금을 인상시키지만 동시에 온실가스와 대기오염물질 배출량을 저감시킨다. 전력수급기본계획을 혼합하는 전원 구성의 대안은 장기에 전기요금의 인상과 온실가스와 대기오염물질 저감량 사이의 상충관계를 완화시킬 수 있다. 전력수급계획을 수립할 때에 공급 안정성, 환경성, 경제성, 효율성, 안전성, 에너지 안보 등의 핵심가치들을 동시에 최적화하는 전원 구성을 도출하기는 어렵다. 그러나 핵심가치들에 근접한 다양한 전원 구성 경로를 탐색하여 각각의 미시적 거시적 영향을 제시하는 것은 국민들에게 미래지향적인 전원 구성으로의 전환 방향을 고민할 수 있는 선택안을 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.867-876
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• 2009

Although renewable power is regarded a way to active response to climate change, the stability of whole power system could be a serious problem in the future due to its uncertainties such as indispatchableness and intermittency. From this perspective, the peak time impact of stochastic wind power generation is estimated using simulation method up to year 2030 based on the 3rd master plan for the promotion of new and renewable energy on peak time. Result shows that the highest probability of wind power impact on peak time power supply could be up to 4.41% in 2030. The impact of wind power generation on overall power mix is also analyzed up to 2030 using SCM model. The impact seems smaller than expectation, however, the estimated investment cost to make up such lack of power generation in terms of LNG power generation facilities is shown to be a significant burden to existing power companies.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.23-25
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• 2007

In this paper an estimation method is proposed to find reasonable load factor of the power system based on the conventional generation mix concept. To find the factor investment costs and operation costs are considered in the estimation. To use feasible results both supply side and demand side of views should be considered. But as a first step of this study only the generation mix is considered in this study.

• 한국태양광발전학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.86-91
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• 2020

Nepal is among the richest in terms of water resource availability and it is one of the most important natural resources of the country. Currently, 72% of the population is electrified through the national grid system. The power generation mix into the grid is hydro dominated with minor shares generated from solar and thermal (accounts for less than 1%). To achieve sustainable development in the power sector it is essential to diversify power generation mix into the grid. Knowing the facts, the government has a plan to achieve a 5-10% share of power generation from solar and mix it into the grid system. Solar is the second most abundant, prominent and free source of renewable in the context of Nepal. This study mainly focuses on the grid-connected solar system, its importance, present status, government efforts, and its need. It is based on the review of literature, news published in national newspaper online news and international organization's report.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1992년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.103-105
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• 1992

The new approach using fuzzy linear programming with fuzzy multi-criterion is proposed for the best generation mix of a power system. A chracteristic feature of the presented approach is that not only cost but also reliability for goal function can be taken into account by using fuzzy multi-criterion and so more realistic solution can be obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by the best generation mix problem of KEPCO-system size model which contains nuclear, coal, LNG, oil and pump-generator hydro plant in multi-years.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.135-150
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• 2012

This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.467-477
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• 2009

Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a regulatory policy that requires the generation companies to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, LFG, fuel cell, and small hydro. Recently, Korean government decided to increase the portion of renewable energy to 3% to total electricity generation by 2012 from the current level of 0.13%. To achieve this goal, an innovative plan for market competitiveness would be required in addition to the present Feed-In-Tariff (FIT). That is Korean government has taken it into consideration to introduce a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) as an alternative to FIT. This paper reviews the impact of RPS on the long-term fuel mix in 2020. The studies have been carried out with the GATE-PRO (Generation And Transmission Expansion PROgram) program, a mixed-integer non-linear program developed by Hongik university and Korea Energy Economics Institute. Detailed studies on long-term fuel mix in Korea have been carried out with four RPS scenarios of 3%, 5%, 10% and 20%. The important findings and comments on the results are given to provide an insight on future regulatory policies.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.639-648
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• 2013

Unconventional natural gas resources are now estimated to be as large as conventional resources. Unconventional natural gas has became an increasingly important source of energy in the world since the start of this century. The factors that drive natural gas demand and supply point more and more to a future in which natural gas plays greater role in the global energy mix. The expansion of using natural gas will be expected in Korea. This research aims to analyze environmental impacts of expansion of unconventional natural gas. This research was carried out for comparative analysis between global energy mix and Korea energy mix, and developed a case that reflect the changed energy mix due to the expansion of unconventional natural gas in Korea. Also this research evaluate the production of air pollutants and the cost of the damage in power generation sector. The results of this research can be summarized as that natural gas portion of future global energy mix (about 25%) is greater than Korea energy mix (about 12%). This research developed a case that replace 10% energy of power generation sector to natural gas in the 6th demand supply program, reflecting the changed energy mix due to the expansion of natural gas use. In that case, air pollutants would be reduced gradually through 2015 to 2027. In detail, carbon dioxide reduces 22 million tons and environmental damage cost reduces 4500 billion won by 2027.