• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized Pareto distribution

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Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Using 3 Parameter Probability Distributions (3변수 확률분포형에 의한 극치강우의 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Byeong-Jun;Maeng, Sung-Jin;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Lee, Soon-Hyuk
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2004
  • This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall at 38 rainfall stations in Korea. To select the appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data by the rainfall stations, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson Type 3 (PT3) probability distributions were applied and their aptness were judged using an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Parameters of appropriate distributions were estimated from the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfall using Monte Carlo techniques. Design rainfalls were finally derived by GEV distribution, which was proved to be more appropriate than the other distributions.

Estimation of Design Flood by the Determination of Best Fitting Order of LH-Moments ( I ) (LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정 ( I ))

  • 맹승진;이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order of LH-moments of the annual maximum series at six and nine watersheds in Korea and Australia, respectively. Adequacy for flood flow data was confirmed by the tests of independence, homogeneity, and outliers. Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distributions were applied to get the best fitting frequency distribution for flood flow data. Theoretical bases of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments were derived to estimate the parameters of 4 distributions. L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment ratio diagrams (LH-moments ratio diagram) were developed in this study. GEV distribution for the flood flow data of the applied watersheds was confirmed as the best one among others by the LH-moments ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Best fitting order of LH-moments will be derived by the confidence analysis of estimated design flood in the second report of this study.

MOMENTS OF LOWER GENERALIZED ORDER STATISTICS FROM DOUBLY TRUNCATED CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS AND CHARACTERIZATIONS

  • Kumar, Devendra
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.441-451
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we derive recurrence relations for moments of lower generalized order statistics within a class of doubly truncated distributions. Inverse Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, power function, exponentiated Pareto, exponentiated gamma, generalized exponential, exponentiated log-logistic, generalized inverse Weibull, extended type I generalized logistic, logistic and Gumble distributions are given as illustrative examples. Further, recurrence relations for moments of order statistics and lower record values are obtained as special cases of the lower generalized order statistics, also two theorems for characterizing the general form of distribution based on single moments of lower generalized order statistics are given.

ON CHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS BY INDEPENDENT PROPERTY OF THE DIFFERENCE-TYPE k-TH LOWER RECORD VALUES

  • HYUN-WOO JIN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.821-829
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we obtain characterizations of continuous distributions based on the independent property of generalized record values extending the characterization results reported by Jin and Lee [4], Skřivánková and Juhás [8]. Also, example of special cases of general classes as Bur types, Pareto, power and Weibull distribution are discussed.

Semi-parametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for High-Quantiles of Heavy-Tailed Distributions (꼬리가 두꺼운 분포의 고분위수에 대한 준모수적 붓스트랩 신뢰구간)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.717-732
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    • 2011
  • We consider bootstrap confidence intervals for high quantiles of heavy-tailed distribution. A semi-parametric method is compared with the non-parametric and the parametric method through simulation study.

Derivation of Optimal Distribution for the Frequency Analysis of Extreme Flood using LH-Moments (LH-모멘트에 의한 극치홍수량의 빈도분석을 위한 적정분포형 유도)

  • Maeng, Sung-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hyuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.229-232
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order of LH-moments of the annual maximum series at six and nine watersheds in Korea and Australia, respectively. Adequacy for flood flow data was confirmed by the tests of independence, homogeneity, and outliers. Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distributions were applied to get the best fitting frequency distribution for flood flow data. Theoretical bases of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments were derived to estimate the parameters of 4 distributions. L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment ratio diagrams (LH-moments ratio diagram) were developed in this study.

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Prediction of sharp change of particulate matter in Seoul via quantile mapping

  • Jeongeun Lee;Seoncheol Park
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.259-272
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we suggest a new method for the prediction of sharp changes in particulate matter (PM10) using quantile mapping. To predict the current PM10 density in Seoul, we consider PM10 and precipitation in Baengnyeong and Ganghwa monitoring stations observed a few hours before. For the PM10 distribution estimation, we use the extreme value mixture model, which is a combination of conventional probability distributions and the generalized Pareto distribution. Furthermore, we also consider a quantile generalized additive model (QGAM) for the relationship modeling between precipitation and PM10. To prove the validity of our proposed model, we conducted a simulation study and showed that the proposed method gives lower mean absolute differences. Real data analysis shows that the proposed method could give a more accurate prediction when there are sharp changes in PM10 in Seoul.

Estimation of Car Insurance Loss Ratio Using the Peaks over Threshold Method (POT방법론을 이용한 자동차보험 손해율 추정)

  • Kim, S.Y.;Song, J.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2012
  • In car insurance, the loss ratio is the ratio of total losses paid out in claims divided by the total earned premiums. In order to minimize the loss to the insurance company, estimating extreme quantiles of loss ratio distribution is necessary because the loss ratio has essential prot and loss information. Like other types of insurance related datasets, the distribution of the loss ratio has heavy-tailed distribution. The Peaks over Threshold(POT) and the Hill estimator are commonly used to estimate extreme quantiles for heavy-tailed distribution. This article compares and analyzes the performances of various kinds of parameter estimating methods by using a simulation and the real loss ratio of car insurance data. In addition, we estimate extreme quantiles using the Hill estimator. As a result, the simulation and the loss ratio data applications demonstrate that the POT method estimates quantiles more accurately than the Hill estimation method in most cases. Moreover, MLE, Zhang, NLS-2 methods show the best performances among the methods of the GPD parameters estimation.

Estimation of Drought Rainfall According to Consecutive Duration and Return Period Using Probability Distribution (확률분포에 의한 지속기간 및 빈도별 가뭄우량 추정)

  • Lee, Soon Hyuk;Maeng, Sung Jin;Ryoo, Kyong Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.1103-1106
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study is to induce the design drought rainfall by the methodology of L-moment including testing homogeneity, independence and outlier of the data of annual minimum monthly rainfall in 57 rainfall stations in Korea in terms of consecutive duration for 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 and 12 months. To select appropriate distribution of the data for annual minimum monthy rainfall by rainfall station, the distribution of generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO) as well as that of generalized pareto (GPA) are applied and the appropriateness of the applied GEV, GLO, and GPA distribution is judged by L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. As for the annual minimum monthly rainfall measured by rainfall station and that stimulated by Monte Carlo techniques, the parameters of the appropriately selected GEV and GPA distributions are calculated by the methodology of L-moment and the design drought rainfall is induced. Through the comparative analysis of design drought rainfall induced by GEV and GPA distribution by rainfall station, the optimal design drought rainfall by rainfall station is provided.

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Parametric nonparametric methods for estimating extreme value distribution (극단값 분포 추정을 위한 모수적 비모수적 방법)

  • Woo, Seunghyun;Kang, Kee-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.531-536
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    • 2022
  • This paper compared the performance of the parametric method and the nonparametric method when estimating the distribution for the tail of the distribution with heavy tails. For the parametric method, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution were used, and for the nonparametric method, the kernel density estimation method was applied. For comparison of the two approaches, the results of function estimation by applying the block maximum value model and the threshold excess model using daily fine dust public data for each observatory in Seoul from 2014 to 2018 are shown together. In addition, the area where high concentrations of fine dust will occur was predicted through the return level.