• Title/Summary/Keyword: General Risk

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Development of Prediction Model for 1-year Mortality after Hip Fracture Surgery

  • Konstantinos Alexiou;Antonios A. Koutalos;Sokratis Varitimidis;Theofilos Karachalios;Konstantinos N. Malizos
    • Hip & pelvis
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.135-143
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Hip fractures are associated with increased mortality. The identification of risk factors of mortality could improve patient care. The aim of the study was to identify risk factors of mortality after surgery for a hip fracture and construct a mortality model. Materials and Methods: A cohort study was conducted on patients with hip fractures at two institutions. Five hundred and ninety-seven patients with hip fractures that were treated in the tertiary hospital, and another 147 patients that were treated in a secondary hospital. The perioperative data were collected from medical charts and interviews. Functional Assessment Measure score, Short Form-12 and mortality were recorded at 12 months. Patients and surgery variables that were associated with increased mortality were used to develop a mortality model. Results: Mortality for the whole cohort was 19.4% at one year. From the variables tested only age >80 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists category, time to surgery (>48 hours), Charlson comorbidity index, sex, use of anti-coagulants, and body mass index <25 kg/m2 were associated with increased mortality and used to construct the mortality model. The area under the curve for the prediction model was 0.814. Functional outcome at one year was similar to preoperative status, even though their level of physical function dropped after the hip surgery and slowly recovered. Conclusion: The mortality prediction model that was developed in this study calculates the risk of death at one year for patients with hip fractures, is simple, and could detect high risk patients that need special management.

Risk identification, assessment and monitoring design of high cutting loess slope in heavy haul railway

  • Zhang, Qian;Gao, Yang;Zhang, Hai-xia;Xu, Fei;Li, Feng
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 2018
  • The stability of cutting slope influences the safety of railway operation, and how to identify the stability of the slope quickly and determine the rational monitoring plan is a pressing problem at present. In this study, the attribute recognition model of risk assessment for high cutting slope stability in the heavy haul railway is established based on attribute mathematics theory, followed by the consequent monitoring scheme design. Firstly, based on comprehensive analysis on the risk factors of heavy haul railway loess slope, collapsibility, tectonic feature, slope shape, rainfall, vegetation conditions, train speed are selected as the indexes of the risk assessment, and the grading criteria of each index is established. Meanwhile, the weights of the assessment indexes are determined by AHP judgment matrix. Secondly, The attribute measurement functions are given to compute attribute measurement of single index and synthetic attribute, and the attribute recognition model was used to assess the risk of a typical heavy haul railway loess slope, Finally, according to the risk assessment results, the monitoring content and method of this loess slope were determined to avoid geological disasters and ensure the security of the railway infrastructure. This attribute identification- risk assessment- monitoring design mode could provide an effective way for the risk assessment and control of heavy haul railway in the loess plateau.

Different Association of Manganese Superoxide Dismutase Gene Polymorphisms with Risk of Prostate, Esophageal, and Lung Cancers: Evidence from a Meta-analysis of 20,025 Subjects

  • Sun, Guo-Gui;Wang, Ya-Di;Lu, Yi-Fang;Hu, Wan-Ning
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1937-1943
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    • 2013
  • Altered expression or function of manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) has been shown to be associated with cancer risk but assessment of gene polymorphisms has resulted in inconclusive data. Here a search of published data was made and 22 studies were recruited, covering 20,025 case and control subjects, for meta-analyses of the association of MnSOD polymorphisms with the risk of prostate, esophageal, and lung cancers. The data on 12 studies of prostate cancer (including 4,182 cases and 6,885 controls) showed a statistically significant association with the risk of development in co-dominant models and dominant models, but not in the recessive model. Subgroup analysis showed there was no statistically significant association of MnSOD polymorphisms with aggressive or nonaggressive prostate cancer in different genetic models. In addition, the data on four studies of esophageal cancer containing 620 cases and 909 controls showed a statistically significant association between MnSOD polymorphisms and risk in all comparison models. In contrast, the data on six studies of lung cancer with 3,375 cases and 4,050 controls showed that MnSOD polymorphisms were significantly associated with the decreased risk of lung cancer in the homozygote and dominant models, but not the heterozygote model. A subgroup analysis of the combination of MnSOD polymorphisms with tobacco smokers did not show any significant association with lung cancer risk, histological type, or clinical stage of lung cancer. The data from the current study indicated that the Ala allele MnSOD polymorphism is associated with increased risk of prostate and esophageal cancers, but with decreased risk of lung cancer. The underlying molecular mechanisms warrant further investigation.

Designing Index for Assessing Structural Vulnerability of Supply Chain considering Risk Propagation (위험 전파 모형을 고려한 공급사슬의 구조적 취약성 평가 지표 설계)

  • Moon, Hyangki;Shin, KwangSup
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.125-140
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    • 2015
  • It is general that the impact of supply chain risk spread out to the whole network along the connected structure. Due to the risk propagation the probability to exposure a certain risk is affected by not only the characteristics of each risk factor but also network structure. It means that the structural connectivity among vertices should be considered while designing supply chain network in order to minimize disruption cost. In this research, the betweenness centrality has been utilized to quantitatively assess the structural vulnerability. The betweenness centrality is interpreted as the index which can express both the probability of risk occurrence and propagation of risk impact. With the structural vulnerability index, it is possible to compare the stability of each alternative supply chain structure and choose the better one.

Factor Analysis of Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescents: Focusing on Daegu and Gyeongbuk provinces (사춘기청소년의 건강위험행동에 대한 요인분석: 대구·경북지역을 중심으로)

  • Kum, Chang-Ae;Suh, Kyung-Do;Han, Sang-Chul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.421-430
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the scale of health risk behaviors among adolescents in Daegu area. The purpose of this study was to develop a health risk behavior measurement item for the adolescent adolescents in Korea and to analyze the validity (CVR) of the existing THI measurement items and then to quantify the health risk behavior Were compared and analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of the health risk behavior scale of adolescents developed through the factor analysis was verified to derive measurement items such as general condition, respiratory, circulatory, digestive, mental health and other items. The reliability and validity of the developed health risk behavior scale were found to be fairly good. Through these studies, it will be possible to develop a preventive program that can reduce the risk of health related adolescents' youth, and to devise a strategy that can provide basic data for policy formulation.

Investigating the Incidence of Prostate Cancer in Iran 2005-2008 using Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models

  • Haddad-Khoshkar, Ahmad;Koshki, TohidJafari;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5917-5921
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    • 2015
  • Background: Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9 and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present study investigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors by the use of Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from 2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and human development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran at province level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately. Results: In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total number of known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all models just human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk Conclusions: In the unadjusted model, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has the least risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjan provinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvin and Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces with higher human development index is higher.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter spp. on Ham in Korea

  • Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.674-682
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of illness from Campylobacter spp. on ham. To identify the hazards of Campylobacter spp. on ham, the general characteristics and microbial criteria for Campylobacter spp., and campylobacteriosis outbreaks were investigated. In the exposure assessment, the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. on ham was evaluated, and the probabilistic distributions for the temperature of ham surfaces in retail markets and home refrigerators were prepared. In addition, the raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) 2012 were used to estimate the consumption amount and frequency of ham. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for Campylobacter spp. infection was used. For risk characterization, a simulation model was developed using the collected data, and the risk of Campylobacter spp. on ham was estimated with @RISK. The Campylobacter spp. cell counts on ham samples were below the detection limit (<0.70 Log CFU/g). The daily consumption of ham was 23.93 g per person, and the consumption frequency was 11.57%. The simulated mean value of the initial contamination level of Campylobacter spp. on ham was −3.95 Log CFU/g, and the mean value of ham for probable risk per person per day was 2.20×10−12. It is considered that the risk of foodborne illness for Campylobacter spp. was low. Furthermore, these results indicate that the microbial risk assessment of Campylobacter spp. in this study should be useful in providing scientific evidence to set up the criteria of Campylobacter spp..

Agent Based Information Security Framework for Hybrid Cloud Computing

  • Tariq, Muhammad Imran
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.406-434
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    • 2019
  • In general, an information security approach estimates the risk, where the risk is to occur due to an unusual event, and the associated consequences for cloud organization. Information Security and Risk Management (ISRA) practices vary among cloud organizations and disciplines. There are several approaches to compare existing risk management methods for cloud organizations but their scope is limited considering stereo type criteria, rather than developing an agent based task that considers all aspects of the associated risk. It is the lack of considering all existing renowned risk management frameworks, their proper comparison, and agent techniques that motivates this research. This paper proposes Agent Based Information Security Framework for Hybrid Cloud Computing as an all-inclusive method including cloud related methods to review and compare existing different renowned methods for cloud computing risk issues and by adding new tasks from surveyed methods. The concepts of software agent and intelligent agent have been introduced that fetch/collect accurate information used in framework and to develop a decision system that facilitates the organization to take decision against threat agent on the basis of information provided by the security agents. The scope of this research primarily considers risk assessment methods that focus on assets, potential threats, vulnerabilities and their associated measures to calculate consequences. After in-depth comparison of renowned ISRA methods with ABISF, we have found that ISO/IEC 27005:2011 is the most appropriate approach among existing ISRA methods. The proposed framework was implemented using fuzzy inference system based upon fuzzy set theory, and MATLAB(R) fuzzy logic rules were used to test the framework. The fuzzy results confirm that proposed framework could be used for information security in cloud computing environment.

Relation of Breast Cancer Risk with Alcohol Consumption and Physical Activity : A Case-Control Study (음주 및 육체적 활동과 유방암 발생의 관련성 : 환자-대조군 연구)

  • 도민희;이상선;정파종;이민혁
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between alcohol consumption, physical activity and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Newly histologically identified cases (N = 108) were selected at Hanyang and Soonchunhyang University Hospitals in Seoul, from January 1998 to August 1999. Hospital-based controls (n = 121) were the patients who visited at the same hospital in the department of plastic surgery, general surgery and opthalmology. Subjects were asked informations on demographic, reproductive, and history of breast feeding as well as physical activity, exercise habit, alcohol consumption by individual interview. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression after adjusted for confounding factors. Among postmenopausal women, the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing alcohol drinking: relative risk for the highest group ( $\geq$ 150 g per week) compared with the lowest group (never drinking) was 2.05 (CI=1.74-3.79). Association of exercise and high physical activity for breast cancer appeared to be limited to women with high physical index among postmenopausal women. We observed decreasing risk of breast cancer with increasing physical activity index among postmenopausal women (OR=0.49,95% CI=0.56-0.92). Results of this study support a protective effects of physical activity during adulthood for breast cancer. (Korean J Nutrition 36(1): 40-48, 2003)

Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase C677T Polymorphism and Cervical Cancer Risk: a Meta-Analysis

  • Guo, Li-Na
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2193-2197
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    • 2012
  • Background: Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) is a key enzyme in the metabolism of folate, and the role of MTHFR C677T polymorphism in cervical carcinogenesis is still controversial. Method: We performed a meta-analysis of all relevant case-control studies that examined any association between the C677T polymorphism and cervical cancer risk. We estimated summary odds ratios (ORs) with their confidence intervals (CIs) to assess links. Results: Finally, 10 studies with a total of 2113 cervical cancer cases and 2804 controls were included. Results from this meta-analysis showed that significantly elevated cervical cancer risk was associated with the MTHFR T allele in the Asian population under conditions of two genetic comparison models (for TT vs. CC, OR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.00-1.87, P = 0.050; for TT vs. TC+CC: OR = 1.34, 95%CI 1.01-1.77, P = 0.039). However, there was no obvious association between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and cervical cancer risk in the other populations. Conclusion: The MTHFR C677T polymorphism is associated with cervical cancer risk in Asians, while any possible link in the Caucasian population needs further studies.