• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.12
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• pp.955-967
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• 2023

Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.503-524
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• 2000

Intercomparisons between four kinds of data have been done to estimate the accuracy of satellite observations and model reanalysis for middle and lower tropospheric thermal state over regional oceans. The data include the Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) Channel 2 (Ch2) brightness temperatures of NOAA satellites and the vertically weighted corresponding temperature of ECMWF GCM (1980-93). The satellite data for midtropospheric temperatures are MSU2 (1980-98) in nadir direction and SC2 (1980-97) in multiple scans, and for lower tropospheric temperature SC2R (1980-97). MSU2 was derived in this study while SC2 and SC2R were described in Spencer and Christy (1992a, 1992b). Temporal correlations between the above data were high (r${\ge}$0.90) in the middle and high latitudes, but low(r${\sim}$0.65) over the low latitude and more convective regions. Their values with SC2R which included the noises due to hydrometeors and surface emission were conspicuously low. The reanalysis shows higher correlation with SC2 than with MSU2 partially because of the hydrometeors screening. SC2R in monthly climatological anomalies was more sensitive to surface thermal condition in northern hemisphere than MSU2 or SC2. The first EOF mode for the monthly mean data of MSU and ECMWF shows annual cycle over most regions except the tropics. The mode in MSU2 over the Pacific suggests the east-west dipole due to the Walker circulation, but this tendency is not clear in other data. In the first and second modes for the Ch2 anomalies over most regions, the MSU and ECMWF data commonly indicate interannual variability due to El Ni${\tilde{n}$o and La Ni${\tilde{n}$a. The substantial disagreement between observations and model reanalysis occurs over the equatorial upwelling region of the western Pacific, suggesting uncertainties in the model parameterization of atmosphere-ocean interaction.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.10
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• pp.865-881
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• 2010

To evaluate influence of the future climate change on water environment, it is necessary to use a rainfall-runoff model, or a basin model allowing us to simultaneously simulate water quality factors such as sediment and nutrient material. Thus, SWAT is selected as a watershed-based model and Nakdong river basin is chosen as a target basin for this study. To apply climate change scenarios as input data to SWAT, Australian model (CSIRO: Mk3.0, CSMK) and Canadian models (CCCma: CGCM3-T47, CT47) of GCMs are used. Each GCMs which have A2, B1, and A1B scenarios effectively represent the climate characteristics of the Korean peninsula. For detecting climate change in Nakdong river basin, precipitation and temperature, increasing rate of these were analyzed in each scenarios. By simulation results, flow and increasing rate of these were analyzed at particular points which are important in the object basin. Flow and variation of flow in the scenarios for present and future climate changes were compared and analyzed by years, seasons, divided into mid terms. In most of the points temperature and flow rate are increased, because climate change is expected to have a significant effect on rising water temperature and flow rate of river and lake, further on the basis of this study result should set enhancing up water control project of hydraulic structures caused by increasing outer discharge of the Nakdong River Basin due to climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.64-75
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• 2012

To predict the future distribution of forest vegetation, the present forest stand distributions of South Korea were represented by multinomial logit model with the following environmental variables: summer average precipitation, the coldest month average temperature, elevation, degree of base saturation, and soil organic matter. The future forest community was predicted by applying the MIROC3.2 hires A1B scenario. The future climate data were downscaled by statistically method. The coldest month average temperature increased $4.4^{\circ}C$, $6.0^{\circ}C$, and $9.4^{\circ}C$, and 3 months average precipitation changed -1.2%, 5.7%, and 5.3% for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. For the projected summer precipitation and the coldest temperature, the future deciduous and mixed forests in the study area increased 56.9% and 8.3% and the coniferous forest decreased 11.2% in 2080s based on present.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1117-1126
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• 2018

Water supply system aims to meet the user's demand by securing water resources in a stable way. However, water supply failure sometimes happens because inflow decreases during drought period. Droughts induced by the lack of precipitation do not always lead to water supply failures. Thus, it is necessary to consider features of actual water shortage event when we evaluate a water supply risk. In this study, we developed a new drought index for drought management, i.e., Joint Drought Management Index (JDMI), using two water supply system performance indices such as reliability and vulnerability. Future data that were estimated from GCMs according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to estimate future water supply risk. After dividing the future period into three parts, the risk of water supply failure in the Nakdong River basin was analyzed using the JDMI. As a result, the risk was higher with the RCP 4.5 than the RCP 8.5. In case of RCP 4.5, W18 (Namgangdam) was identified as the most vulnerable area, whereas in case of RCP 8.5, W23 (Hyeongsangang) and W33 (Nakdonggangnamhae) were identified as the most vulnerable area.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.137-158
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• 2000

The correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses over the globe have been applied to intercompare lower-stratospheric (${\sim}$70hPa) temperature obtained from satellite data and two model reanalyses. The data is the19 years (1980-98) Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 4 (Ch4) brightness temperature, and the reanalyses are GCM (NCEP, 1980-97; GEOS, 1981-94) outputs. In MSU monthly climatological anomaly, the temperature substantially decreases by ${\sim}$21k in winter over southern polar regions, and its annual cycle over tropics is weak. In October the temperature and total ozone over the area south of Australia remarkably increase together. High correlations (r${\ge}$0.95) between MSU and reanalyses occur in most global areas, but they are lower (r${\sim}$O.75) over the 20-3ON latitudes, northern America and southern Andes mountains. The first mode of MSU and reanalyses for monthly-mean Ch4 temperature shows annual cycle, and the lower-stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions. The analyses near the Korean peninsula show that lower-stratospheric temperature, out of phase with that for troposphere, increases in winter and decreases in summer. In the first mode for anomaly over the tropical Pacific, MSU and reanalyses indicate lower-stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions. In the second mode MSU and GEOS present Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) while NCEP, El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. Volcanic eruption and QBO have more impact on lower-stratospheric thermal state than El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. The EOF over the tropical Atlantic is similar to that over the Pacific, except a negligible effect of El Ni${\tilde{n}}$o. This study suggests that intercomparison of satellite data with model reanalyses may estimate relative accuracy of both data.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.1-15
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• 2002

Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4B
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• pp.337-346
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• 2010

Climate change has a huge impact on various parts of the world. This study quantified and analyzed the effects on hydrological behavior caused by climate, vegetation canopy and land use change of Soyanggang dam watershed (2,694.4 $km^2$) using the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). For the 1997-2006 daily dam inflow data, the model was calibrated with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies between the range of 0.45 and 0.91. For the future climate change projection, three GCMs of MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM, and HadCM3 were used. The A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The data was corrected for each bias and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model). Three periods of data; 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) were prepared for future evaluation. The future annual temperature and precipitation were predicted to change from +2.0 to $+6.3^{\circ}C$ and from -20.4 to 32.3% respectively. Seasonal temperature change increased in all scenarios except for winter period of HadCM3. The precipitation of winter and spring increased while it decreased for summer and fall for all GCMs. Future land use and vegetation canopy condition were predicted by CA-Markov technique and MODIS LAI versus temperature regression respectively. The future hydrological evaluation showed that the annual evapotranspiration increases up to 30.1%, and the groundwater recharge and soil moisture decreases up to 55.4% and 32.4% respectively compared to 2000 condition. Dam inflow was predicted to change from -38.6 to 29.5%. For all scenarios, the fall dam inflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge were predicted to decrease. The seasonal vapotranspiration was predicted to increase up to 64.2% for all seasons except for HadCM3 winter.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.145-159
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on turbidity water and eutrophication for Chungju Lake by using CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir water quality model coupled with SWAT watershed model. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2000~2010) daily streamflow data at three locations and monthly stream water quality data at two locations. The CE-QUAL-W2 was calibrated and validated for 2 years (2008 and 2010) water temperature, suspended solid, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and Chl-a. For the future assessment, the SWAT results were used as boundary conditions for CE-QUAL-W2 model run. To evaluate the future water quality variation in reservoir, the climate data predicted by MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B for three periods (2013~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100) were downscaled by Artificial Neural Networks method to consider Typhoon effect. The RCM temperature and precipitation outputs and historical records were used to generate pollutants loading from the watershed. By the future temperature increase, the lake water temperature showed $0.5^{\circ}C$ increase in shallow depth while $-0.9^{\circ}C$ in deep depth. The future annual maximum sediment concentration into the lake from the watershed showed 17% increase in wet years. The future lake residence time above 10 mg/L suspended solids (SS) showed increases of 6 and 17 days in wet and dry years respectively comparing with normal year. The SS occupying rate of the lake also showed increases of 24% and 26% in both wet and dry year respectively. In summary, the future lake turbidity showed longer lasting with high concentration comparing with present behavior. Under the future lake environment by the watershed and within lake, the future maximum Chl-a concentration showed increases of 19 % in wet year and 3% in dry year respectively.