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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2010.30.4B.337

Assessment of future hydrological behavior of Soyanggang Dam watershed using SWAT  

Park, Min Ji (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Shin, Hyung Jin (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Park, Geun Ae (건국대학교 지역건설환경공학과)
Kim, Seong Joon (건국대학교 환경시스템학부 사회환경시스템공학과)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.30, no.4B, 2010 , pp. 337-346 More about this Journal
Abstract
Climate change has a huge impact on various parts of the world. This study quantified and analyzed the effects on hydrological behavior caused by climate, vegetation canopy and land use change of Soyanggang dam watershed (2,694.4 $km^2$) using the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). For the 1997-2006 daily dam inflow data, the model was calibrated with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies between the range of 0.45 and 0.91. For the future climate change projection, three GCMs of MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM, and HadCM3 were used. The A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The data was corrected for each bias and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model). Three periods of data; 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) were prepared for future evaluation. The future annual temperature and precipitation were predicted to change from +2.0 to $+6.3^{\circ}C$ and from -20.4 to 32.3% respectively. Seasonal temperature change increased in all scenarios except for winter period of HadCM3. The precipitation of winter and spring increased while it decreased for summer and fall for all GCMs. Future land use and vegetation canopy condition were predicted by CA-Markov technique and MODIS LAI versus temperature regression respectively. The future hydrological evaluation showed that the annual evapotranspiration increases up to 30.1%, and the groundwater recharge and soil moisture decreases up to 55.4% and 32.4% respectively compared to 2000 condition. Dam inflow was predicted to change from -38.6 to 29.5%. For all scenarios, the fall dam inflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge were predicted to decrease. The seasonal vapotranspiration was predicted to increase up to 64.2% for all seasons except for HadCM3 winter.
Keywords
SWAT; Climate change; Land use; Vegetation canopy; GCMs;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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