Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.10.865

An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Flow in Nakdong River Basin Using Watershed-Based Model  

Shon, Tae-Seok (Dept. of School of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Pusan National Univ.)
Lee, Sang-Do (Dept. of School of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Pusan National Univ.)
Kim, Sang-Dan (Dept. of Environmental Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.)
Shin, Hyun-Suk (Dept. of School of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Pusan National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.43, no.10, 2010 , pp. 865-881 More about this Journal
Abstract
To evaluate influence of the future climate change on water environment, it is necessary to use a rainfall-runoff model, or a basin model allowing us to simultaneously simulate water quality factors such as sediment and nutrient material. Thus, SWAT is selected as a watershed-based model and Nakdong river basin is chosen as a target basin for this study. To apply climate change scenarios as input data to SWAT, Australian model (CSIRO: Mk3.0, CSMK) and Canadian models (CCCma: CGCM3-T47, CT47) of GCMs are used. Each GCMs which have A2, B1, and A1B scenarios effectively represent the climate characteristics of the Korean peninsula. For detecting climate change in Nakdong river basin, precipitation and temperature, increasing rate of these were analyzed in each scenarios. By simulation results, flow and increasing rate of these were analyzed at particular points which are important in the object basin. Flow and variation of flow in the scenarios for present and future climate changes were compared and analyzed by years, seasons, divided into mid terms. In most of the points temperature and flow rate are increased, because climate change is expected to have a significant effect on rising water temperature and flow rate of river and lake, further on the basis of this study result should set enhancing up water control project of hydraulic structures caused by increasing outer discharge of the Nakdong River Basin due to climate change.
Keywords
SWAT; Nakdong river; climate change; flow;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 IPCC. (1998). "IPCC Emissions Scenarios Database".
2 Meehl, G.A., and Tebaldi, C. (2004). "More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century." Science Webinar Series, Vol. 305, pp. 994-997.
3 Takle, E.S., Manoj, Jha., Christopher, J.A., and Philip W.G. (2005). "9.9 Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin as Determined by An Ensemble of GCMs." 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change.
4 김재철, 김상단 (2007). "오염총량관리 유량측정자료를 이용한 낙동강 유역 유황분석." 수질보전 환경물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제23권, 제3호, pp. 332-338.
5 신현석, 강두기, 김상단 (2007). "낙동강유역 SWAT 모형 구축 및 물수지 시나리오에 따른 유황분석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제40권, 제3호, pp. 251-263.
6 이용준, 안소라, 강부식, 김성준 (2008). "SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화및 토지이용 변화에 따른안성천 유역 수문-수질 변화 분석." 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제28권, 제6B호, pp. 653-663.
7 이길하, 이근상, 조홍연 (2008). "기후변화에 따른 임하댐 유역의 GIS 기반 토양침식 추정." 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제28권, 제3호, pp. 423-429.
8 Bouraoui, F., Galbiati, L., and Bidoglio, G. (2002). "Climate change impact on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse Catchment." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 197-209.   DOI
9 최대규 (2010). 미래기후변화에 대한 영향분석 및 유역단위의 수자원 영향평가. 석사학위논문, 부경대학교.
10 한수희, 유가영, 김상단 (2009). "식생 물 부족지수의 추계 학적 거동과 기후변화가 그에 미치는 영향." 한국물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제25권, 제4호, pp. 507-514.
11 Cunderlik, J.M., and Simonovic, S.P. (2007). "Hydrologic models for inverse climate change impact modeling." CSCE.
12 Dagnachew, L., Christine, V.C., and Francoise, G. (2003). "Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in tropical Africa : case study south central ethiopia." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 275, pp. 67-85.   DOI
13 Gellens, D., and Roulin, E. (1998). "Streamflow response of belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 210, pp. 242-258.   DOI
14 Gosain, A.K., Sandhya, Rao., and Debajit Basuray. (2006). "Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basin." Current Science, Vol. 90, No. 3, pp. 346-353.
15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2008). "Climate Change and Water. IPCC Technical Paper IV."
16 강두기 (2007). "통합 유역관리를 위한 수환경 모형 구축 기법 및 오염총량관리에의 적용 연구." 박사학위논문, 부산대학교.
17 건설교통부(2008). 기후변화 대비 국가 물 안보 확보 방안.
18 김문성, 고익환, 김상단 (2009). "CGCM의 미래기후 정보를 이용한 기후변화가 낙동강 유역 유황에 미치는 영향분석." 한국물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제25권, 제6호, pp. 833-871.