• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.169-177
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• 2011

The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2014

The impact of the combination of changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change on surface water resources is important in hydro-meteorological research. In this study, 4 hydro-meteorological (HM) models from the Rainfall Runoff Library in the Catchment Modeling Toolkit were used to model the impact of climate change on runoff in streams for 5 river basins in the Republic of Korea. Future projections from 2021 to 2040 (2030s), 2051 to 2070 (2060s) and 2081 to 2099 (2090s), were derived from 12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). GCM outputs were statistically adjusted and downscaled using Long-Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the HM models were well calibrated and verified for the period from 1999 to 2009. The study showed that there is substantial spatial, temporal and HM uncertainty in the future runoff shown by the interquartile range, range and coefficient of variation. In summary, the aggregated runoff will increase in the future by 10~24%, 7~30% and 11~30% of the respective baseline runoff for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This study presents a method to model future stream-flow taking into account the HM model and climate based uncertainty.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.253-265
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• 2013

The objective of this study is to analyse the current climate zone applied by K$\ddot{o}$ppen climate classification and the future climate zone projected by the A2 scenario in Asia regions. The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and temperature were also analyzed. As regards to the result of analysis on the variation of climate factor, temperature and precipitation will be increasing $4.0^{\circ}C$ and 12% respectively in the 2080s comparing with the reference period (1991~2010). Spatially, the range of temperature increase on the high latitude area is higher than that on the low latitude area. The precipitation will be increasing averagely in the overall area, but the spatial unequal distribution of precipitation will be intensified. At the result of the future climate zone, the area of warm climates will be increasing while the area of cold climates will be decreasing. In 2080s, the temperature will be increasing as much as 7.2% and 1.9% on the Tropical climates and Arid climates respectively, but it will be decreasing as -2.4%, -4.9% and -1.8% on the Warm temperate climates, Cold climates and Polar climates respectively. Furthermore, the part of Savannah climates and Desert climates will be mostly increasing. It is mainly caused by the temperature increase and desertification impact according to global warming.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.188-200
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• 2014

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis) was accepted at the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I. This comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus on those elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future of climate change. The assessment builds on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the recent Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The assessment covers the current knowledge of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system components, which determine the sensitivity and response of the system to changes in forcing, and they quantify the link between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing, and the consequent detection and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on model simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter. The primary purpose of this Technical Summary is to provide the link between the complete assessment of the multiple lines of independent evidence presented in the main report and the highly condensed summary prepared as Policy makers Summary. The Technical Summary thus serves as a starting point for those readers who seek the full information on more specific topics covered by this assessment. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ since 1750. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. The in-depth review for past, present and future of climate change is carried out on the basis of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.3 s.120
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• pp.355-367
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• 2007

As the global warming has been influenced on various sectors including agriculture, fisheries and health, it is essential to project more accurate future climate for an assessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy. The purpose of this study is to examine the boundary changes in the subtropical climate region in South Korea using observed 30-year(1971-2000) data and projected 100-year data based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. We have selected Trewartha's climate classification among various climate classification, defining the subtropical climate region as the region with monthly mean temperature $10^{\circ}C$ or higher during 8-12 months. By observed data, the subtropical climate region was only limited in Jeju-do and the farmost southern coastal area(Busan, Tongyeong, Geoje, Yeosu, Wando, Mokpo) of South Korea. The future projected climate region for the period of 2071-2100 included have shown that subtropical climate region extended to most of stations except for the ares of Taebaeksan and Sobaeksan Mountains.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.185-185
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• 2019

Sustaining future wheat production is challenged by anthropogenically forced climate warming and drying led by increased concentration of greenhouse gases all around the globe. Warming stresses, originating from the elevated $CO_2$ concentration, are continuously reported to have negative impacts on wheat growth and yield. Yet, elevated $CO_2$ concentration, despite being disparagingly blamed for promoting warming, is also associated with a phenomenon called $CO_2$ enrichment; in which wheat yield can improve due to the enhanced photosynthesis rates and less water loss through transpiration. The conflicting nature of climate warming and $CO_2$ enrichment and their interplay can have specific implications under different environments. It is established form the field and simulation studies that the two contrasting phenomena would act severely in their own respect under arid and semi-arid environments. Wheat is a dietary staple for masses in Pakistan. The country's wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more from irrigated agricultural lands, primarily lying under arid to semi-arid environments, to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. This work comprehensively examines the warming impacts over wheat yield and water productivity (WP), with and without the inclusion of $CO_2$ enrichment, under semi-arid environment of Punjab which is the largest agricultural province of Pakistan. Future wheat yields and WPs were simulated by FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0. The model was run using the bias-correction climate change projections up to 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. Wheat yield and WPs decreased without considering the $CO_2$ enrichment effects owing to the elevated irrigation demands and accelerated evapotranspiration rates. The results suggested that $CO_2$ enrichment could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s (2021-2050); however, it might not withhold the negative climate warming impacts during the 2060s (2051-2080). Furthermore, 10 - 20 day backward shift in sowing dates could also help ease the constraints imposed by climate warming over wheat yields and WPs. Although, $CO_2$ enrichment showed promises to counteract the adverse climate warming impacts but the interactions between climate warming and $CO_2$ concentrations were quite uncertain and required further examination.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.607-623
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• 2021

This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃^-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃^-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2024

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

• Advances in environmental research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.13-28
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• 2018

It is currently agreed upon that one of the major challenges in the construction industry is the energy efficiency of existing buildings. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and United Nations (UN) have reported that the concentration of global atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by an average of 50%, a record speed, from 2015 to 2016. The housing sector contributes to 45% of the UK's carbon emissions. To help tackle some of those issues the recast Energy Performance Building Directive (EBPD) has introduced Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) in the coming years (including buildings that will undergo refurbishment/renovations). This paper will explore the retrofitting of a UK residential dwelling using Thermal Analysis Simulation (TAS, EDSL) software by focusing on building fabric improvements and usage of on-site renewables. The CIBSE Test Reference Year (TRY) weather data has been selected to examine the performance of the building under current and future climate projections. The proposed design variables were finally implemented in the building altogether on TAS. The simulation results showed a reduction in the building's annual energy consumption of $122.64kWh/m^2$ (90.24%). The greatest savings after this were achieved for the annual reduction in carbon emissions and avoided emissions, which were 84.59% and $816.47kg/CO_2$, respectively.