Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pinus densiflora and Analyzing the Relationship with Environmental Variable Using MaxEnt Model

MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 소나무 잠재분포 예측 및 환경변수와 관계 분석

  • Cho, NangHyun (Department of Environmetal Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Eun-Sook (Forest Ecology and Climate Change Division, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Lee, Bora (Forest Ecology and Climate Change Division, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Lim, Jong-Hwan (Forest Ecology and Climate Change Division, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Kang, Sinkyu (Department of Environmetal Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 조낭현 (강원대학교 환경학과) ;
  • 김은숙 (국립산림과학원 기후변화생태연구과) ;
  • 이보라 (국립산림과학원 기후변화생태연구과) ;
  • 임종환 (국립산림과학원 기후변화생태연구과) ;
  • 강신규 (강원대학교 환경학과)
  • Received : 2019.09.11
  • Accepted : 2020.06.26
  • Published : 2020.06.30
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Abstract

Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 소나무 잠재분포변화 예측 및 환경요인과의 관계를 파악하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 입력자료인 종속변수는 1:5,000 임상도에서 추출한 소나무 출현자료를 사용하였으며, 독립변수는 RCP 시나리오 기후자료 및 임상도, 입지도에서 추출한 기후, 입지, 생육환경자료 등 총 14개의 환경요인 변수를 사용하였다. 이러한 입력자료를 바탕으로 생태적 지위 개념을 기반으로 한 종 분포 모형 중 하나인 MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy Modeling) 모형을 구동하여 미래의 소나무 잠재분포를 예측하였다. 분석결과 training AUC (Area Under Curve)가 0.79로 우수한 수준의 정확도를 보였으며 현존 소나무 분포 자료와 유사한 현재 잠재분포 결과를 보였다. RCP 시나리오를 적용한 결과 소나무 잠재분포지는 시간이 지남에 따라 지속적으로 감소할 것으로 나타났으며 RCP8.5 기준으로 2050년과 2070년에 각각 11.1%, 18.7%의 잠재분포지가 줄어들 것으로 예측되었다. 입력자료의 소나무 잠재분포 판단에 대한 기여도는 계절기온, 고도, 겨울철 기온 등이 높게 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변화로 인한 소나무림 보전 및 대책 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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