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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Changes in Mean Temperature and Warmth Index on the Korean Peninsula under SSP-RCP Climate Change Scenarios

SSP-RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 한반도의 평균 기온 및 온량지수 변화

  • Jina Hur (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Yongseok Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Sera Jo (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Eung-Sup Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Mingu Kang (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kyo-Moon Shim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Seung-Gil Hong (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences)
  • 허지나 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 김용석 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 조세라 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 김응섭 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 강민구 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 심교문 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 홍승길 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과)
  • Received : 2024.02.23
  • Accepted : 2024.03.21
  • Published : 2024.05.31
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Abstract

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문의 개선을 위해 좋은 의견을 제시해 주신 두 분의 심사위원께 감사를 드립니다. 본 연구는 농촌진흥청 "신농업기후변화대응체계구축사업(과제번호: RS-2021-RD009055)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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