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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.3.257

Uncertainty of Hydro-meteorological Predictions Due to Climate Change in the Republic of Korea  

Nkomozepi, Temba (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
Chung, Sang-Ok (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.3, 2014 , pp. 257-267 More about this Journal
Abstract
The impact of the combination of changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change on surface water resources is important in hydro-meteorological research. In this study, 4 hydro-meteorological (HM) models from the Rainfall Runoff Library in the Catchment Modeling Toolkit were used to model the impact of climate change on runoff in streams for 5 river basins in the Republic of Korea. Future projections from 2021 to 2040 (2030s), 2051 to 2070 (2060s) and 2081 to 2099 (2090s), were derived from 12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). GCM outputs were statistically adjusted and downscaled using Long-Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the HM models were well calibrated and verified for the period from 1999 to 2009. The study showed that there is substantial spatial, temporal and HM uncertainty in the future runoff shown by the interquartile range, range and coefficient of variation. In summary, the aggregated runoff will increase in the future by 10~24%, 7~30% and 11~30% of the respective baseline runoff for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This study presents a method to model future stream-flow taking into account the HM model and climate based uncertainty.
Keywords
climate change; uncertainty; water resources; GCM ensemble; rainfall-runoff model;
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