• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.23-40
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• 2015

본 연구는 시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용하여 주요 해운정책이 우리나라 외항선대 증가에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 시뮬레이션을 위해 사용된 변수는 2005년부터 2013년까지 우리나라 해운기업이 보유한 선박척수와 총톤수, BDI, HRCI, CCFI, WS, 달러 대비 환율, 세계 선대규모, 우리나라 해운업계 부채비율 등이고, 해운정책이 외항선대 증가에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 검증하기 위하여 국제선박등록 톤수, 정책금융기관의 해운기업에 대한 대출액수, 톤세제 적용기업의 수, 선박펀드 규모 등 4가지 정책변수에 대해 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 예측값의 정확도를 파악하기 위해 절대평균 오차비율(MAPE) 검증을 실시하였는데, MAPE 값이 3.46%로서 10%이내에 해당하여 매우 높은 정확도를 가지는 시뮬레이션 모델로 평가되었다. 민감도 분석결과, 국제선박등록 톤수, 정책금융기관의 대출액수, 선박펀드 규모, 톤세제 적용기업의 수의 순으로 영향도가 큰 것으로 분석되었다.

• 대한조선학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.1-7
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• 1984

This paper is concerned with an optimum design study of containerships in preliminary stage by applying economic criteria. The Net Present Value Index (NPVI) and the Required Freight Rate(RFR) are used as measures of merit. Hooke & Jeeves direct search method and External Penalty Function method of Sequential Unconstrained Minimization Techniques(SUMT) are used for solving constrained nonlinear optimization problem. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the effect on the optimum solution due to change of values in some parameters such as crane capacity, load factor, oil price, ship speed and the ratio between loaded FEU and TEU.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.407-416
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• 2023

In order to effectively relieve the traffic pressure of the city, ensure the smooth flow of freight and promote the development of the logistics industry, the selection of appropriate port logistics location is the basis of giving full play to the port logistics function. In order to better realize the selection of port logistics, this paper adopts the entropy weight method to set up a multi-dimensional evaluation index, and constructs the evaluation model of port logistics location. Then through the actual case, from the environmental dimension and economic competition dimension to make choices and analysis. The results show that port d has the largest logistics competitiveness and the highest relative proximity among the three indicators of hinterland city economic activity, hinterland economic structure, and port operation capacity of different port logistics locations, which has absolute advantages. It is hoped that the research results can provide a reference for the multi-dimensional selection of port logistics site selections.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.17-36
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• 2021

Purpose - This study provides useful information to stakeholders by forecasting the tramp shipping market, which is a completely competitive market and has a huge fluctuation in freight rates due to low barriers to entry. Moreover, this study provides the most effective parameters for Baltic Dry Index (BDI) prediction and an optimal model by analyzing and comparing deep learning models such as the artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM). Design/methodology - This study uses various data models based on big data. The deep learning models considered are specialized for time series models. This study includes three perspectives to verify useful models in time series data by comparing prediction accuracy according to the selection of external variables and comparison between models. Findings - The BDI research reflecting the latest trends since 2015, using weekly data from 1995 to 2019 (25 years), is employed in this study. Additionally, we tried finding the best combination of BDI forecasts through the input of external factors such as supply, demand, raw materials, and economic aspects. Moreover, the combination of various unpredictable external variables and the fundamentals of supply and demand have sought to increase BDI prediction accuracy. Originality/value - Unlike previous studies, BDI forecasts reflect the latest stabilizing trends since 2015. Additionally, we look at the variation of the model's predictive accuracy according to the input of statistically validated variables. Moreover, we want to find the optimal model that minimizes the error value according to the parameter adjustment in the ANN model. Thus, this study helps future shipping stakeholders make decisions through BDI forecasts.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.25-39
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• 2023

사회가 고도화되면서 복잡성은 증가하고 예측하기 어려운 리스크도 계속적으로 발생하고 있다. 특히 최근 코로나19 및 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 인한 글로벌 공급망에 대한 리스크도 한 예라 할 수 있다. 공급망에 대한 리스크는 항만 물동량에 영향을 주어 항만운영과 항만산업 발전에 지장을 주게 된다. 본 연구는 글로벌 공급망 리스크가 항만 물동량, 특히 컨테이너 물동량에 주는 영향을 알아보기 위해 부산항 사례를 중심으로 글로벌 공급망 압력지수(GSCPI), 상하이 컨테이너 운임지수(SCFI), 산업생산지수, 소매 판매지수 등의 변수들이 물동량에 주는 영향에 대해 벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 활용하여 실증분석을 시행하였다. 분석 결과, GSCPI의 상승은 단기적으로 부산항 물동량의 감소를 유발하지만, 일정 시점 후에는 물동량 증가요인으로 작용하는 파동의 형태로 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었는데, 이는 비교군인 상하이항에서도 동일하게 나타났다. 다만 LA/LB항에서는 GSCPI가 물동량에 거의 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 산업 생산지수와 소매판매지수는 부산항 물동량에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났으며, SCFI의 경우 GSCPI가 물동량에 미치는 영향과 거의 유사한 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 공급망 리스크가 점차 증가하고 있는 상황에서 리스크가 항만 물동량에 어떠한 형태로 영향을 미치는지를 밝혀 향후 공급망 리스크에 대비한 항만운영 정책 수립에 많은 시사점을 제공하고 있다.

• 한국항해학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.65-113
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• 1983

A lot of studies of ship's economy are on the traditional fields such asreducing propulsion resistance, raising cargo handling rates and lessening building consts, but there are few researches on the merchant ship's economy concerning their deadweights and speeds according to shipping companies managerial cercumstances. Contrary to the contemporary trend that "the bigger, the better, if the cargo handling rate could increased sufficiently to hold down port time to that rate of smmaler vessels", this paper demonstrates the existence of certain limits in ship's size and speed according to the coditions of the freight rates, voyage distances, cargo handing rates, prices of fuel oil, interst rates etc. Fom the curves of criteria contour for various ship's deadweights and speeds which are depicted from the gird search method, one can get the costs and the yearly profit rates under the conditiions of large volume with long term contracts for the transportation of bulk cargoes. In estimating ship's transportation economy, the auther takes the position that the profit rate method is properer than the cost method, and introduces the calculation table of the voyage profit rate index. The use of the criteria contours will be of help to ship owners in determining the size and speed of the ship which will be built or purchased and serve in a certain trade route.

• 국토계획
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• 제54권7호
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• pp.5-23
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• 2019

The central government has implemented policies to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium sized cities for balanced development at the national scale. However, since it is often difficult to enhance the competitiveness through partial projects of each jurisdiction, many local governments collaborate at the regional scale. This suggests that a regional approach is important for the management of small and medium sized cities. On the one hand, the concept of network city suggests that various functional networks can affect the growth of small and medium sized cities. Given this background, the purposes of this study are to delineate regional boundaries at national scale and identify their relations of growth by using functional network and Moran's I index. The study uses the Markov-chain model and cluster analysis to delineate the regions, and Moran's I is employed to identify the relations of growth. The results show that interactions between jurisdictions through networks could be crucial factors for growth of small and medium sized cities, while the networks based on passenger travel and freight movement have different implications. The results suggest that policy makers should not only consider local level investments, but also take the characteristics of networks between cities into account for achieving balanced development and developing regeneration policies.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.419-426
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• 2022

This study aimed to identify new routes for transporting automobiles from Korea to Mongolia by comparing them with the existing route. At present, a route from the Incheon Port through the Tianjin Port to Zamiin-Uud is commonly used to transport containerized cargo from Korea to Mongolia. This study examined five possible logistics routes from Korea to Mongolia using a time/cost-distance methodology based on real data. Through consecutive discussions with importers and freight forwarders in Mongolia, the potential routes were selected and costs, distance, and lead time were evaluated to provide additional route options for automobile logistics from Korea to Mongolia. The results indicated that each route could be ranked in terms of the total cost while the lead time for all options in the present COVID-19 period is 2 - 4 months, with no difference among the routes. In addition, although the confidence index of all routes was not impressive, route 3 was the most preferred option, followed by route 1. However, the study results cannot provide the answer to the question of "which route is more attractive for transporting automobiles from Korea to Mongolia." This limitation notwithstanding, this study provides real information on the critical factors of distance, cost, and lead time in terms of the selected transportation routes so that importers and exporters can compare the routes in terms of the priority of each factor in uncertain logistics environment.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.121-140
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• 2021

The ship recycling or scrap is a phenomenon in the process of vessels life cycle has ended in the shipping industry. Scrap are greatly affected by freight rates due to ship demands. Not only that, environmental regulation and economic scale vessel demand are processes that must exist in the shipping industry as they obtain management for existing vessels. In the past, shipbreaking yard had tried to work without protection for poverty, without poor working conditions and facilities to prevent the emission of harmful substances. However, the issue of environmental pollution has been raised the Basel and Hong Kong Convention have been adopted, and a new replacement of the ship scrap that induces serious pollution is required. In this study, 165 countries were analyzed to confirm the importance of determining the ship solution. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the Environmental Performance Index, which is a measure of environmental regulation, is the most influential factor of ship scrapped volume. The determinant of whether lower labor cost can be secured is more correlated with population than GDP per capita. The implications of the results of the regression analysis mean that if environmental regulations for ship scrap of the future are strengthened, the status of Bangladesh and Pakistan, which currently account for half of the world's ship recycling, may change.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.115-136
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 중국의 철광석 수입량과 철강제품 수출량 변동이 부정기선 해운시장에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하기 위해 가설을 설정하고 검증하고자 하였다. 중국 철광석 수입량 및 철강제품 수출량과 기타 외생변수(선복량, 국제유가, 중국PMI지수)를 독립변수로 하고, 발틱운임지수(BDI) 및 중국 철광석 수입과 철강제품 수출과 상관관계가 있을 것으로 추정되는 Capesize의 지수인 BCI, C5, C10, C14와 Supramax 지수 BSI, S2, S3를 종속변수로하여, 각 독립변수별 상관관계 및 다중회귀분석으로 검증하였다. 상관분석결과 중국의 철광석 수입량은 C14 지수를 제외하고 나머지 BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, S3와는 관계가 없었으며, 기타 외생변수로 선복량과 국제유가와는 정(+)의 상관관계를 나타내었고 중국 PMI지수와는 관계가 없었다. 철강제품 수출량은 BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, 국제유가와는 부(-)상관 관계를 보였으며, 철광석 수입량, 선복량, 중국PMI지수와는 관련이 없었다. 다중회귀분석 결과를 통해 도출된 가설의 검증결과로써 중국 철광석 수입량과 선복량, 국제유가, 중국 PMI 지수 중 중국 PMI지수는 BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14에 영항을 줄 것 이다라는 가설은 기각되었으며, 국제유가 및 선복량이 지수에 영향을 준다는 가설이 채택되었다. 중국 철강제품 수출량과 지수와의 가설검증에서는 BDI와 S3지수에 영향을 줄 것이다라는 가설은 채택되었으며, BSI와 S2에 영향을 줄 것이란 가설은 기각되었다. 본 연구 분석결과에서 공통적으로 선복량과 유가는 모든 가설 검증 결과에서 채택된 만큼 국내 부정기 해운 시장에 참여하고 있는 국내 기업들은 관련 지표의 지속적인 모니터링을 통해 대응 방안을 모색할 필요가 있을 것이다.