• Title/Summary/Keyword: Freight Demand Analysis

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Estimation on the Future Traffic Volumes and Analysis on Crossing Situation Risk for Gamcheon Harbor (감천항의 장래 교통량 추정 및 교차상태위험 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon;Gug, Seung-Gi;Kim, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.30 no.8 s.114
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    • pp.617-622
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    • 2006
  • Gamcheon Harbor was developed to cope with increased freight demand of Busan port and supplement function of the north port. Because container wharf is opened to 1997 as well as general wharf, present maximum 50,000DWT class containerships have been incoming and outgoing. However, In Gamcheon port, small size ships such as fishing boats, miscellaneous boats account for 50 percent of the traffic and a public marine products wholesale market that is building on the north wharf will open in 2008. Therefore, it needs to grasp future year traffic volume before establishing operation plan for port management. Also, analysis on crossing situation risk is required because the breakwater entrance in Gamcheon Harbor is narrow and the crossed passing of ship is ever-present at breakwater front. Thus the traffic volume in the future was presumed and quantitative analysis was achieved on crossing situation though simulations with the traffic volume.

Joint Price and Lot-size Determination for Decaying Items with Ordering Cost Inclusive of a Freight Cost under Trade Credit in a Two-stage Supply Chain (2 단계 신용거래 공급망에서 운송비용이 포함된 주문 비용을 고려한 퇴화성제품의 재고정책 및 판매가격 결정 모형)

  • Shinn, Seong-Whan
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2020
  • As an effective means of price discrimination, some suppliers offer trade credit to the distributors for the purpose of increasing the demand of the product they produce. The availability of the delay in payments from the supplier enables discount of the distributor's selling price from a wider range of the price option in anticipation of increased customer's demand. In this regard, we consider the problem of determining the distributor's optimal price and lot size simultaneously when the supplier permits delay in payments for an order of a product whose demand rate is represented by a constant price elasticity function. It is assumed that the distributor pays the shipping cost for the order and hence, the distributor's ordering cost consists of a fixed ordering cost and the shipping cost that depend on the order quantity. For the analysis, it is also assumed that inventory is depleted not only by customer's demand but also by decay. We are able to develop a solution algorithm from the properties of the mathematical model. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the algorithm developed.

The Causal Relationship Test between Marine Business Cycle and Shipping Market Using Heterogeneous Mixed Panel Framework (해운경기변동과 선박시장에 대한 다차원 혼합 패널 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

Direct Strength Assessment of Pure Car and Truck Carrier under Maximum Cargo Loads (최대 화물 적재하중을 받는 자동차운반선의 직접강도평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Yeob;Yoon, Sung-Won;Cho, Je-Hyoung;Jung, Seung-Ho;Kim, Myung-Hyun
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.641-647
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    • 2019
  • Yearly world vehicle production has continued to increase, and the global seaborne trade volumes also are recovering. Based on these positive trends, as demand for cargo ships increases in the freight transportation market, Pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) with large gaps between decks continue to be ordered. The structural analysis of the cargo hold was performed in order to confirm its structural safety in accordance with the guidance for the direct strength assessment of the Korean Register (KR) of Shipping. And, according to the type of cargo, the maximum deflection and structurally weak area that occurred in deck 5 was confirmed. Also, it was found that the weight of the cargo had a significant effect on the deck, the primary members of the deck's structure, and pillars. The results of the structural analysis conducted in this study were added to the existing cargo load planning software. This was done so that the prediction of the maximum stress and the deflection of the deck based on the information about the cargo could be confirmed quickly. In addition, the data will be used as the basic data for rapid information management response to changes in cargo items.

Analysis on the International Competitiveness of Ship Repair Industry in Korea (한국 수리조선산업의 국제경쟁력 분석)

  • Song, Ha-Cheo;Seo, Mu-Cheon;Yum, Jae-Seon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.34 no.10
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    • pp.799-805
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    • 2010
  • Since 2000's, Korea has became the world-leading shipbuilding country with the competitive technologies in design and production. And with the China's economic growth, the three economies (Korea, Japan and China) handle 30 percent of the world`s freight cargoes. Shipping industry of Korea has been also grown up to the top 10 of the world with the newly constructed large ports. In spite of the growing demand for ship repair in Korea, its competitiveness analysis has been insufficient. This paper present the competitiveness analysis of ship repair industry of Korea with the consideration of condition of location, repair cost and technological competitiveness.

Forecasting Bunker Price Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 선박 연료유 가격 예측)

  • Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.

Structural Analysis and Design of the H-typed Railway Tie (H형 침목의 구조해석 및 설계)

  • Kim, Hae-Gon;Bae, Hyun-Ung;Lee, Chin-Ok;Lim, Nam-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.4532-4541
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    • 2013
  • With speed up of railway, the demand for safety of the railroad transportation is on the increase in Korea's conventional railways. In additions, freight trains with heavier axle load are required to run conventional railways. In order to solve these requirements, the increase of rail weight and the application of long rail system have been underway in conventional railways. However, the research on ties that is absolutely influencing the track stiffness in ballasted tracks has not been much progress. In this paper, the new H-typed tie is developed to increase the track stiffness and reduce the track irregularity. And from the structural analysis by FE program, the intial design drawing of the new H-typed tie is proposed.

An Analysis of Choice Behavior for Tour Type of Commercial Vehicle using Decision Tree (의사결정나무를 이용한 화물자동차 투어유형 선택행태 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Su;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Choe, Chang-Ho;Kim, Gyeong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2010
  • In recent years there have been studies on tour based approaches for freight travel demand modelling. The purpose of this paper is to analyze tour type choice behavior of commercial vehicles which are divided into round trips and chained tours. The methods of the study are based on the decision tree and the logit model. The results indicates that the explanation variables for classifying tour types of commercial vehicles are loading factor, average goods quantity, and total goods quantity. The results of the decision tree method are similar to those of logit model. In addition, the explanation variables for tour type classification of small trucks are not different from those for medium trucks', implying that the most important factor on the vehicle tour planning is how to load goods such as shipment size and total quantity.

An Analysis of the International Transportation Route at the Sight of Wind Power Equipment Manufacturing Company (풍력발전부품 제조업체의 관점에서 본 국제 운송경로 분석)

  • Yun, Seok-Hwan;Park, Jin-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.361-370
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    • 2015
  • Wind energy began to receive attention as a new alternative fuel since 20 years ago and is growing as a booming global business model. Global wind power generation in the world has been continuously increasing for the past 10 years, accounting for over 30% of cumulative rate compared to total power generation. Global demand for wind power generation is gradually expanding due to restriction on carbon emission and environmental problems caused by increased greenhouse effect. Accordingly in this study, current transportation routes are classified into three types including access-priority route, economics-priority route, and convenience- priority route depending on distribution characteristics of wind power equipment in order to suggest transportation methods other than ships. The three types of transportation route that this study declared can make the Wind power equipment manufacturing companies can judge not only the duration of transportation but also effectiveness and economic feasibility. It means that the manufacturers can analyze and compare the effectiveness and economic feasibility, which are proceed by the shipping company and freight forwarder until now days.

A Study on a Way to Induce Drivers' Voluntary Traffic Behavior Change by Using AHP (AHP기법을 활용한 승용차 운전자의 자발적인 교통행동변화 유도방안 연구)

  • Ha, Jong Ju;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.845-853
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    • 2017
  • The main reason for urban traffic problems is the increasing in the use of private cars. In order to solve this problem, strong traffic demand management policies such as the collection of congestion tolls and the crackdown on freight vehicles are emerging. Now, however, it is necessary to seek ways for users to make changes in traffic behavior through direct communication between public agencies and passenger car users. As a technique to make this possible, mobility management, which aims to use rational passenger cars by inducing behavior change through individual consciousness change, has recently been proved to be effective in overseas. Therefore, this study concluded that the introduction of MM, which emphasizes individual voluntary behavior change, is necessary at present. In order to investigate the ways of inducing voluntary changes in traffic behavior of passenger car users, a questionnaire survey was conducted on traffic experts and the priorities of voluntary traffic behavior change measures were calculated using AHP. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that "to actively appeal to change the traffic behavior by using the mass media" was the top priority. The next priority were in order of company education for the change of traffic behavior, education for the school, and small-scale workshops.