• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.313-326
• /
• 2023

The seismic safety of the shear wall structure can be assessed through seismic fragility analysis, which requires high computational costs in estimating seismic demands. Accordingly, machine learning methods have been applied to such fragility analyses in recent years to reduce the numerical analysis cost, but it still remains a challenging task. Therefore, this study uses the ensemble machine learning method to present an improved framework for developing a more accurate seismic demand model than the existing ones. To this end, a rank-based selection method that enables determining an excellent model among several single machine learning models is presented. In addition, an index that can evaluate the degree of overfitting/underfitting of each model for the selection of an excellent single model is suggested. Furthermore, based on the selected single machine learning model, we propose a method to derive a more accurate ensemble model based on the bagging method. As a result, the seismic demand model for which the proposed framework is applied shows about 3-17% better prediction performance than the existing single machine learning models. Finally, the seismic fragility obtained from the proposed framework shows better accuracy than the existing fragility methods.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.65-76
• /
• 2010

In this paper, earthquake fragility analysis has been comparatively performed with regard to a buried gas pipeline of API X65 which has been widely used in Korea. For this purpose, a nonlinear time-history analyses has been carried out for 15 different analytical models of a buried gas pipeline in terms of the selected 12 sets of earthquake ground motions with 0.1g of scaling interval. Following that, earthquake fragility analyses have been conducted using the maximum axial strain of the pipeline obtained from the nonlinear time-history analyses. Parameters under consideration for subsequent earthquake fragility analyses are soil conditions, end-restraint conditions, burial depth and the type of pipeline. Comparative analyses reveal that whereas the first three parameters influence the fragility curves, particularly soil conditions amongst the three parameters, the last parameter has a little effect on the curves. In all, the present study can be considered as a benchmark fragility analysis of a buried gas pipeline in the absence of an earthquake fragility analysis of the pipeline and thus is expected to be a useful source regarding earthquake fragility analyses of a buried gas pipelines.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.51 no.2
• /
• pp.561-572
• /
• 2019

In the design criterion for the nuclear power plant piping system, the limit state of the piping against an earthquake is assumed to be plastic collapse. The failure of a common piping system, however, means the leakage caused by the cracks. Therefore, for the seismic fragility analysis of a nuclear power plant, a method capable of quantitatively expressing the failure of an actual piping system is required. In this study, it was conducted to propose a quantitative failure criterion for piping system, which is required for the seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants against critical accidents. The in-plane cyclic loading test was conducted to propose a quantitative failure criterion for steel pipe elbows in the nuclear power plant piping system. Nonlinear analysis was conducted using a finite element model, and the results were compared with the test results to verify the effectiveness of the finite element model. The collapse load point derived from the experiment and analysis results and the damage index based on the stress-strain relationship were defined as failure criteria, and seismic fragility analysis was conducted for the piping system of the BNL (Brookhaven National Laboratory) - NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) benchmark model.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.243-260
• /
• 2023

Indonesia has had seismic codes for earthquake-resistant structures designs since 1970 and has been updated five times to the latest in 2019. In updating the Indonesian seismic codes, seismic hazard maps for design also update, and there are changes to the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Indonesian seismic design uses the concept of building performance levels consisting of Immediate occupancy (IO), Life Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP). Related to this performance level, cases still found that buildings were damaged more than their performance targets after the earthquake. Based on the above issues, this study aims to analyze the performance of base isolation design on existing target buildings and analyze the seismic fragility for a case study in Indonesia. The target building is a prototype design 8-story medium-rise residential building using the reinforced concrete moment frame structure. Seismic fragility analysis uses Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) with Nonlinear Time History Analysis (NLTHA) and eleven selected ground motions based on soil classification, magnitude, fault distance, and earthquake source mechanism. The comparison result of IDA shows a trend of significant performance improvement, with the same performance level target and risk category, the base isolation structure can be used at 1.46-3.20 times higher PGA than the fixed base structure. Then the fragility analysis results show that the fixed base structure has a safety margin of 30% and a base isolation structure of 62.5% from the PGA design. This result is useful for assessing existing buildings or considering a new building's performance.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.38 no.11
• /
• pp.19-30
• /
• 2022

Developing a fragility curve for the levee requires calculating the probability of failure according to the water level for each failure mode. Since probabilistic analysis requires iterative analysis to account for variability in geotechnical parameters, the fragility curve development inevitably requires many iterative calculations. Therefore, approximate probabilistic analysis techniques are usually applied to reduce the amount of calculation in developing the levee fragility curve. However, their accuracy has not been determined clearly. This study calculated the failure probability of slope and piping failure mode for an actual levee through probabilistic methods, such as FOSM, PEM, and MCS. Then, the fragility curve of the levee according to the water level was developed. The results of the approximate methods: FOSM and PEM, were compared with those of MCS to evaluate the applicability to the fragility curve for slope and piping failure mode.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
• /
• 2006.03a
• /
• pp.597-604
• /
• 2006

The seismic safety of the prestressed concrete containment building was evaluated by the seismic fragility analysis based on the nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses. Four kinds of earthquake ground motions were used for the seismic fragility analysis of the containment building to consider the potential earthquake hazard. The conventional seismic fragility analysis of the safety related structures in nuclear pouter plant have been performed by using the linear elastic analysis results for the seismic design. In this study, the displacement based seismic fragility analysis method was proposed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.609-623
• /
• 2022

To study the empirical seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete girder bridge, based on the theory of numerical analysis and probability modelling, a regression fragility method of a rapid fragility prediction model (Gaussian first-order regression probability model) considering empirical seismic damage is proposed. A total of 1,069 reinforced concrete girder bridges of 22 highways were used to verify the model, and the vulnerability function, plane, surface and curve model of reinforced concrete girder bridges (simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges) considering the number of samples in multiple intensity regions were established. The new empirical seismic damage probability matrix and curve models of observation frequency and damage exceeding probability are developed in multiple intensity regions. A comparative vulnerability analysis between simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges is provided. Depending on the theory of the regional mean seismic damage index matrix model, the empirical seismic damage prediction probability matrix is embedded in the multidimensional mean seismic damage index matrix model, and the regional rapid prediction matrix and curve of reinforced concrete girder bridges, simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges in multiple intensity regions based on mean seismic damage index parameters are developed. The established multidimensional group bridge vulnerability model can be used to quantify and predict the fragility of bridges in multiple intensity regions and the fragility assessment of regional group reinforced concrete girder bridges in the future.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.64 no.2
• /
• pp.213-223
• /
• 2017

Bridges are lifeline and integral components of transportation system that are susceptible to seismic actions, their vulnerability assessment is essential for seismic risk assessment and mitigation. The vulnerability assessment of bridges common in Pakistan is very important as it is seismically very active region and the available code for the seismic design of bridges is obsolete. This research presents seismic vulnerability assessment of three real case simply supported multi-span reinforced concrete bridges commonly found in northern Pakistan, having one, two and three bents with circular piers. The vulnerability assessment is carried through the non-linear dynamic time history analyses for the derivation of fragility curves. Finite element based numerical models of the bridges were developed in MIDAS CIVIL (2015) and analyzed through with non-linear dynamic and incremental dynamic analyses, using a suite of bridge-specific natural spectrum compatible ground motion records. Seismic responses of shear key, bearing pad, expansion joint and pier components of each bridges were recorded during analysis and retrieved for performance based analysis. Fragility curves were developed for the bearing pads, shear key, expansion joint and pier of the bridges that first reach ultimate limit state. Dynamic analysis and the derived fragility curves show that ultimate limit state of bearing pads, shear keys and expansion joints of the bridges exceed first, followed by the piers ultimate limit state for all the three bridges. Mean collapse capacities computed for all the components indicated that bearing pads, expansion joints, and shear keys exceed the ultimate limit state at lowest seismic intensities.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.32 no.5
• /
• pp.405-421
• /
• 2021

To gain insight into the wind-induced safety concerns associated with attached tower cranes during the construction of super-tall buildings, a 606 m level frame-core tube super-tall building is selected to investigate the wind-induced vibration response and fragility of an outer-attached tower crane at all stages of construction. The wind velocity time history samples are artificially generated and used to perform dynamic response analyses of the crane to observe the effects of wind velocity and wind direction under its working and non-working resting state. The adverse effects of the relative displacement response at different connection supports are also identified. The wind-resistant fragility curves of the crane are obtained by introducing the concept of incremental dynamic analysis. The results from the investigation indicate that a large relative displacement between the supports can substantially amplify the response of the crane at high levels. Such an effect becomes more serious when the lifting arm is perpendicular to the plane of the connection supports. The flexibility of super-tall buildings should be considered in the design of outer-attached tower cranes, especially for anchorage systems. Fragility analysis can be used to specify the maximum appropriate height of the tower crane for each performance level.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.87-93
• /
• 2017

Many studies are conducted in several fields for fragility analysis of structures or elements which is a probabilistic seismic safety analysis in consideration with uncertainty of seismic loading. It is hard to directly conduct fragility analysis for an infrastructure with social importance due to its size. Therefore, a fragility analysis for an infrastructure mainly conducted in element level or conducted with scaled model built in accordance with similarity law. In this article, fragility analysis for prototype and scaled model of reinforced concrete column was conducted with numerical models which had been updated by the results of shaking table test and pseudo dynamic test. As a result, response stress from the numerical analysis result of prototype model was higher than that from scaled model due to different stiffness ratios between steel and concrete. However, the probability of failure for scaled model was higher than that for prototype model because failure criteria for scaled model was down due to similarity law. Also it was evaluated that probability of failure by using log normal standard deviation of response stresses by spectrum matched accelerograms was more reliable than probability of failure by using existing coefficient of variation normally used.