Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
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Applicability of Practical Reliability Analysis to Develop Fragility Curves for Levee

제방의 취약도 곡선 작성을 위한 실용적 신뢰성 해석의 적용성

  • Cho, Sung-Eun (School of Civil and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.)
  • 조성은 (한경대학교 건설환경공학부)
  • Received : 2022.08.16
  • Accepted : 2022.10.24
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

Developing a fragility curve for the levee requires calculating the probability of failure according to the water level for each failure mode. Since probabilistic analysis requires iterative analysis to account for variability in geotechnical parameters, the fragility curve development inevitably requires many iterative calculations. Therefore, approximate probabilistic analysis techniques are usually applied to reduce the amount of calculation in developing the levee fragility curve. However, their accuracy has not been determined clearly. This study calculated the failure probability of slope and piping failure mode for an actual levee through probabilistic methods, such as FOSM, PEM, and MCS. Then, the fragility curve of the levee according to the water level was developed. The results of the approximate methods: FOSM and PEM, were compared with those of MCS to evaluate the applicability to the fragility curve for slope and piping failure mode.

하천제방의 취약도 곡선을 구하기 위해서는 수위에 따른 파괴확률을 각 파괴모드 별로 구해야 한다. 확률론적 해석은 지반공학적 확률변수의 변동성을 고려하기 위하여 반복적인 해석을 필요로 하므로 취약도 곡선을 구하는 작업은 많은 반복 계산을 필연적으로 수반한다. 실제 제방의 취약도 곡선 작성에서는 계산량을 줄이기 위하여 단순화된 확률론적 해석기법을 적용하고 있으나 그 정확성에 대한 명확한 평가는 없는 형편이다. 본 연구에서는 실제 하천제방을 대상으로 확률론적인 방법에 의해 사면안정과 파이핑에 대한 파괴확률을 계산하여 제방의 안전도를 평가하고 수위에 따른 제방의 취약도 곡선을 구하였다. 이때 간략법인 FOSM과 PEM의 결과를 MCS의 결과와 비교하여 사면안정과 파이핑 파괴모드의 취약도 곡선 작성에 대한 적용성을 평가하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 성과는 정부(과학기술정보통신부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(NRF-2022R1F1A1062669).

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