• Title/Summary/Keyword: Foreign Exchange

Search Result 564, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Spillover Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Exchange Rates on the Banking Industry in China

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Wang, Zhen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.15-24
    • /
    • 2018
  • The study examines the magnitude of economic spillover and the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the efficiency of the bank industry in China. This study employs unit root tests, cointegration tests and cointegrating regression analysis, including fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to test the proposed hypotheses. The sample is restricted to the period of time in which monthly data is available and comparable among variables for the period from January 2002 to October 2013 (142 observations). All of the time series data was collected and retrieved from the People's Bank of China, China Monthly Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and International Financial Statistics database from International Monetary Fund. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI inflows, foreign exchange rate and banks performance in China. The results of cointegrating regression analysis using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS suggest that M2 supply and FDI inflows are significant at the 0.01 level. The results confirm that FDI inflows in the banking sector are positively related to the increase of banks productivity and performance and short-term loans in China. However, the results suggest that Chinese Yuan currency exchange rate to U.S. dollar is not significant in the banking and financial industry of China.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.71-85
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

The effect of shipbuilding industry foreign exchange hedge on exchange rate, volatility of exchange rate and the policy implication (조선산업 환헤지가 환율 및 환율변동성에 미치는 영향과 정책적 시사점)

  • Moon, Ho-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.235-245
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper finds that business in the shipbuilding industry affects significantly the exchange rate and its variability. The effects of the amount of orders received and construction in the shipbuilding industry on the exchange rate and its variability are preemptive and long lasted. This implies that business cycles and the exchange rate hedge in the shipbuilding industry are important factors in understanding the exchange rate and its variability. Advancement in the technology of exchange rate hedge in future may reinforce the importance of business cycles in the shipbuilding industry. It is, therefore, required that the policy authority should monitor carefully the shipbuilding industry for the stability of foreign exchange market.

Testing the Valuation Effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea (환헤지가 기업가치를 높이는가? : 환변동보험의 기업가치 효과)

  • Song, Hong-Sun;Hahn, Sang-Buhm
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.63-84
    • /
    • 2010
  • We investigate whether FX hedging materially increases firm value by testing the valuation effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea, using our sample of 84 listed firms with 617 observations between 2000 and 2008, Employing Tobin's Q as a proxy of firm value and foreign exchange risk insurance as a proxy of hedging instrument, we find a positive relation between firm value and the use of foreign exchange risk insurance. The hedging premium is statistically significant and is on average 7.4% of sample firm value. We also find our empirical results consistent with the preceding evidence that firm uses the hedging instrument in order to alleviate economic frictions and then hedging causes an increase in firm value.

  • PDF

The Economic Evaluation of Experimental Fishing Grounds in the North Pacific Midway Ocean Under Uncertainty : Focusing on Tuna Longline Fishing Grounds (불확실성하에서 북태평양 미드웨이 시험어장의 경제성 평가 : 다랑어연승 어장을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Seong-Ju;Jin, Sang-Dae;An, Young-Su;Kim, Yeong-Seung;Hwang, Seon-Jae
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.40 no.1
    • /
    • pp.153-172
    • /
    • 2009
  • Developing foreign fishing ground executed in various uncertainty such as fishing price, oil price, exchange rate. But traditional economic evaluation method, CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis doesn't consider uncertainty of foreign fishing ground. So we need new approach about economic evaluation that can take into account uncertainty. This study focus on the economic evaluation about experimental survey of tuna fishing grounds in the north pacific ocean by sensitive analysis and simulation. The results of the economic evaluation can be summarized as follows. First, when we take it for granted that the other uncertainty factors except for each fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are constant. CVP gross sales has positive relation to the increasing rate of oil price, exchange rate(W/$) and negative relation to the increasing rate of fishing price and exchange rate(W/${\yen}$). Second, when we are supposing that fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are followed. the probability of less than CVP gross sales is A ship(48.87%), B ship(49.64%), C ship(50.55%). Consequently, the economic evaluation by sensitive analysis and simulation is more useful tool than CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis under uncertainty.

  • PDF

Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks, Inward FDI and Import on Export Performance: A Cointegration Analysis

  • NGUYEN, Van Chien;DO, Thi Tuyet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.163-171
    • /
    • 2020
  • The study aims to examine the effects of inward every presence of foreign investment, import, and real exchange rate shocks on export performance in Vietnam. This study employs a time-series sample dataset in the period of 2009 - 2018. All data are collected from the General Statistics Office of Ministry of Planning and Investment in Vietnam, World Development Indicator and Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Vietnam. This study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the vector error correction model with the analysis of cointegration. The results demonstrate that a higher value of import significantly accelerates export performance in the short run, but insignificantly generates in the long run. When the volume of registered foreign investment goes up, the export performance will predominantly decrease in the both short run and long run. Historically, countries worldwide are more likely to devaluate their currencies in order to support export performance. According to the study, the exchange rate volatility has an effect on the external trade in the long run but no effect in the short run. Finally, Vietnam's export performance converges on its long-run equilibrium by roughly 6.3% with the speed adjustment via a combination of import, every presence of foreign investment, and real exchange rate fluctuations.

Characterization of Li+-ion Exchanged Zeolite Y using Organic Solvents

  • Kim, Hu Sik;Lee, Seok Hee;Park, Kyun Hye;Park, Yong Hyun;Park, Jun Woo;Hwang, Ji Hyun;Park, Jong Sam;Choi, Sik Young;Lim, Woo Taik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.48 no.3
    • /
    • pp.180-188
    • /
    • 2015
  • To investigate the tendency of $Li^+$ exchange from polar organic solvents, $Li^+$-ion exchange into zeolite Y (Si/Al = 1.56) was attempted by undried methanol (crystal 1) and formamide (crystal 2) solvent. Two single crystals of Na-Y were treated with 0.1 M LiNO3 in each of the two solvents at 323 K, followed by vacuum dehydration at 723 K. Their structures were determined by single-crystal synchrotron X-ray diffraction techniques in the cubic space group $Fd{\bar{3}}m$, at 100(1) K. In both structures, $Li^+$ for $Na^+$ ions filled preferentially sites I' and II. The remaining $Na^+$ ions occupied sites I', II, and III' in both structures, in additional to above sites, and $Na^+$ ions occupied site I in crystal 2. While the 68 % exchange of $Li^+$ for $Na^+$ was achieved from undried methanol, only 40 % exchange was observed from undried formamide, indicating that the undried methanol was more effective than undried formamide as solvent for $Li^+$ exchange under the conditions employed.

An Analysis of he Foreign Exchange Exposure and Determinants (개별기업의 환노출과 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyon-Sok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.65-98
    • /
    • 2004
  • This paper analyzes the foreign exchange exposure and the influence of determinants on the significant exposure under various return horizons of US dollar and the Japanese yen. Also this research is extended to the existence of asymmetric exposures to foreign exchange risk. The exchange rate exposures exhibit significant time variations that are very large to represent changes in cash flow sensitivities, but the relation of the significant exposures and time variations is not monotonically increasing. The extent to which a firm is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by the level of the growth potential, nm size and leverage. For the various return horizons, firms with a higher growth potential tend to have higher exposures. And the larger firms' exposures tend to be smaller. The influences of the level of export ratio and leverage vary with return horizons and each periods. It is found that the exposures of fins are asymmetric. The asymmetry is mainly explained by the market share hypothesis. The level of export ratio commonly influences the asymmetric exposures to the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

  • PDF

Herding Behavior: Do Domestic Investors Herd Toward Foreign Investors in Vietnam Stock Market?

  • NGUYEN P., Quynh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.9
    • /
    • pp.9-24
    • /
    • 2022
  • With a view to attracting foreign investment and growing the economy, the Vietnamese government has hastened financial reforms, including the lifting of limitations on foreign investment, which has resulted in rapidly rising foreign ownership in recent years. To study the relationship between transactions of foreign investors and transactions of domestic investors on two stock exchanges in Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX). This study applies a secondary dataset comprising daily market trading information of 912 stocks from 18 industries listed on 2 Vietnam stock exchanges, including HSX and HNX, which includes executed price, executed volume, daily Buy Orders, and Sell Orders categorized into domestic investors' orders and foreign investors orders from 01.04.2010 to 10.04.2018. The regression results show a significantly positive relationship between foreign investors' trading and domestic investors' transaction in all trading activities in both up and down markets. Therefore, these results indicate that domestic investors in Vietnam are concerned with foreign investors' trading as an important sign, and domestic investors tend to follow their counterparties without appropriate fundamental information. From there, there are signs of herding behavior of domestic investors following foreign investors in transactions on the stock market in Vietnam.

Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI Response during the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • HUONG, Tram Thi Xuan;NGUYEN, My-Linh Thi;LIEN, Nguyen Thi Kim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.119-126
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study is to examine the foreign direct investment (FDI) response to real effective exchange rate volatility in Vietnam by using the vector autoregression model. The research data are quarterly frequency data in the period from 2004:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The data on real effective exchange rate were collected from the statistics of Bruegel (Europe) and FDI data were collected from the International Financial Statistics. The quantitative study was conducted with two steps: (1) measuring exchange rate volatility by the GARCH(1,1) method; and (2) examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on FDI in the context of the global financial crisis. The estimation results show that FDI responded significantly to real exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods at the 5% significance level. The FDI response increased after the exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods, and the impact extended to the lag of 6 periods, and then gradually stabilized. The research findings indicate that FDI in Vietnam responds positively and significantly to exchange rate volatility with the lag of 3 periods. Simultaneously, the negative impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 with the lag of 2 periods leads to a slight decrease in FDI inflows into Vietnam.