• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.111-120
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• 2011

High-rise buildings have recently increased over the residential, commercial and office facilities, thus an understanding of construction cost for high-rise building projects has been a fundamental issue due to enormous construction cost as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation by long-term construction periods of high-rise projects. Especially, recent violent fluctuations of construction material prices add to problems in construction cost forecasting. This research, therefore, develops a time-series model with the Box-Jenkins methodologies and material prices time-series data in Korea in order to forecast future trends of unit prices of required materials. BIM (Building Information Modeling) approaches are also used to analyze injection time of construction resources and to conduct quantity takeoff so that total material price can be forecasted. Comparative analysis of Predictability of tentative ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models was conducted to determine optimal time-series model for forecasting future price trends. Proposed BIM based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating future material prices.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.28-34
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• 2020

A reservoir is defined as an artificial facility that stores and controls water during floods and droughts. Korea has constructed and managed reservoirs all over the country to benefit farming communities. The importance of reservoirs has decreased gradually due to urbanization and the spread of tap water, but the importance of water is increasing because of the recent shortage of water and the resulting rise in the price of water resources. Therefore, this study suggests countermeasures through an analysis of the used threshold for agricultural reservoirs. To this end, the forecast of rainfall up to 2100 was first analyzed using flood estimates and RCP scenarios through rainwater data collection. The increase in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the largest increase in the probability rainfall, was calculated by adding it to the current probability rainfall, and it was predicted that the marginal height of Odong Dam would reach its limit in 2028. Therefore, as a countermeasure against this, the measures to secure effective water storage were suggested through measures, such as lowering the height of Yeosu and installing movable beams. Overall, it is expected that effective management of the reservoirs used for agriculture will be possible in the future.

• Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.33-42
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• 2017

Interior design especially the design developments for commercial spaces should ensure the economy of spaces. This is the marketing for space. It is necessary to understand the design elements of commercial space for the efficient using of digital media of space marketing. In this research decided to design application schemes for shopping mall by searching fashion shopping behaviors of users with persona-base scenario approach. Collected the information of users behavior base on case analysis of advance research to make personas. And develop scenario base personas for knowing the needs of users. And then made 4 schemes as the solution. Scheme 1. Customers can get the information and communication with the staff through with media screen in one room of shopping mall. The data of customers can be recorded for providing information or product recommendation personality. Forecast to preferred by group trip or customers that don't like walking around in shopping mall. Scheme 2. Install a media screen at entrance of a store in shopping mall and show special effect to raise customers' attention who walk through from the front of the store. Through with this customers will stay for long time and raise curiosity to get in the store. And the media screen also provide information of store and products. Scheme 3. Customers can get the information of products with using smart phone to scan QR cord in labels of products and record. Customers can finish whole shopping behaviors without the help of store staff. And can make buying decision even have left shopping mall as a online mode. Scheme 4. Store managers can record the products and the environment of store with 360 camera and update to website. Then customers can browse the virtual space with VR glasses. That make customers can have the real shopping experience without being in the store. In this study, have presented schemes of digital media in commercial space. But there are various of commercial space. In this study was presented schemes for shopping mall by searching fashion shopping behaviors of users. And look forward the researches about specific space setting and other type of commercial space for space development.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.187-194
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• 2020

It is very important to forecast freight volume accurately to establish major port policies and future operation plans. Thus, related studies are being conducted because of this importance. In this paper, stepwise regression analysis and artificial neural network model were analyzed to compare the predictive power of each model on Gwangyang Port, the largest domestic port for coal and iron ore transportation. Data of a total of 121 months J anuary 2009-J anuary 2019 were used. Factors affecting coal and iron ore trade volume were selected and classified into supply-related factors and market/economy-related factors. In the stepwise regression analysis, the tonnage of ships entering the port, coal price, and dollar exchange rate were selected as the final variables in case of the Gwangyang Port coal volume forecasting model. In the iron ore volume forecasting model, the tonnage of ships entering the port and the price of iron ore were selected as the final variables. In the analysis using the artificial neural network model, trial-and-error method that various Hyper-parameters affecting the performance of the model were selected to identify the most optimal model used. The analysis results showed that the artificial neural network model had better predictive performance than the stepwise regression analysis. The model which showed the most excellent performance was the Gwangyang Port Coal Volume Forecasting Artificial Neural Network Model. In comparing forecasted values by various predictive models and actually measured values, the artificial neural network model showed closer values to the actual highest point and the lowest point than the stepwise regression analysis.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.97-104
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• 2010

The materials failure relation $\ddot{\Omega}=A{(\dot{\Omega})}^\alpha$ where $\Omega$ is a measurable quantity such as displacement and the dot superscript is the time derivative, may be used to analyze the accelerating creep of materials. Coefficients, A and $\alpha$, are determined by fitting given data sets. In this study, it is tried to predict the failure time of tunnel using the materials failure relation. Four fitting techniques of applying the materials failure relation are attempted to forecast a failure time. Log velocity versus log acceleration technique, log time versus log velocity technique, inverse velocity technique are based on the linear least squares fits and non-linear least squares technique utilizes the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Since the log velocity versus log acceleration technique utilizes a logarithmic representation of the materials failure relation, it indicates the suitability of the materials failure relation applied to predict a failure time of tunnel. A linear correlation between log velocity and log acceleration appears satisfactory(R=0.84) and this represents that the materials failure relation is a suitable model for predicting a failure time of tunnel. Through comparing the real failure time of tunnel with the predicted failure times from four curve fittings, it is shown that the log time versus log velocity technique results in the best prediction.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.7
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• pp.463-473
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• 2019

This study compared the characteristics of the optimization technique and the water supply and demand forecast using K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation and Planning System) model and MODSIM (Modified SIMYLD) model considering wtaer supply priority. Currently, The national water resources plan applied same priority for municipal, industrial and agricultural demand. the K-WEAP model performs the ratio allocation to satisfy the maximum satisfaction rate, whereas the MODSIM model should be applied to the water supply priority of demands. As a result of applying the priority, water shortage decreased by an average of $1,035,000m^3$ than same prioritized results. It is due to the increase of the return flow rate as the distribution of Municipal and industrial water increases. Comparing the analysis results of K-WEAP and MODSIM applying the priorities, the relative error was within 5.3% and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.9999. In addition, if both models provide reasonable water balance analysis results, K-WEAP is superior to GUI convenience for model construction and data processing. However, MODSIM is more effective in simulation time efficiency. It is expected that it will be able to carry out analysis according to various scenarios using the model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.458-468
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• 2019

This research attempted to estimate monthly sales of food and beverage at the passenger terminal of Incheon int'l airport from June of 2015 to December 2020. This paper used ARIMA-Intervention model which can estimate the change of the sales amount suggesting the predicted monthly food and beverage sales revenue. The intervention variable was travel-ban policy against south Korea from P.R. China since July 2016 to December 2017 due to THAAD in south Korea. According to ARIMA, it was found normal predicted sales amount showed the slow growth increase rate until 2020 due to the effect of intervened variable. However, the monthly food sales in July and August 2019 was 20.3 and 21.2 billion KRW respectively. Each amount would increase even more in 2020 and the amount would increase to 21.4 and 22.1 billion KRW. The sales amount in 2019 would be 7.7 and 8.1 billion KRW and climb up 7.9 and 8.2 billion KRW in 2020. It was expected LCC passengers tend to spend more money for F&B at airport due to no meal or drink service of LCC or the paid-in meal and beverage service of LCC. The growth of sales of food and beverate will be accompanied with the growth of LCC according to estimated data.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.233-241
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• 2015

In 2014, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to submit the Intended Nationality Determined Contributions (INDCs) at the conference of parties held in Lima, Peru. Then, the South Korean government submitted the INDCs including GHGs reduction target and reduction potential on July, 2015. The goal of this study is to predict GHGs emission and to analyze reduction potential in agricultural sector of Korea. Activity data to estimate GHGs emission was forecast by Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO) of Korea Rural Economic Institute and estimate methodology was taken by the IPCC and guideline for MRV (Measurement, Reporting and Verification) of national greenhouse gases statistics of Korea. The predicted GHGs emission of agricultural sectors from 2021 to 2030 tended to decrease due to decline in crop production and its gap was less after 2025. Increasing livestock numbers such as sheep, horses, swine, and ducks did not show signigicant impact the total GHGs emission. On a analysis of the reduction potential, GHGs emission was expected to reduce $253Gg\;CO_{2-eq}$. by 2030 with increase of mid-season water drainage area up to 95% of total rice cultivation area. The GHGs reduction potential with intermittent drainage technology applied to 10% of the tatal paddy field area, mid-drainage and no organic matter would be $92Gg\;CO_{2-eq}$. by 2030.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.321-339
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• 2008

The purpose of this study to the analyze characteristics and purchasing activities of consumers by using the Multinomial Logit model, which is a well-known discrete selection model to explain and forecast consumers' selection activities(patterns). The study aims to determine the state of competition between National Brand and Private Band and how some demographic characters and marketing variables influence consumers' brand selections within the facial tissue market. Our analysis process includes reorganization of panel data(individuals' purchasing record at each point) to fit the purpose of our study as well as analysis of probability and influencing factors of consumers' brand selection at each point of purchases. The result showed that consumers at higher age and with higher income hold better probability to purchase National Brand. Likewise, locations also had considerable effect on selecting brand, and Private Brand was preferred in department store and discount stores. On the other hand, consumers loyal to National Brand reported higher probability to purchase if the product prices were higher while Private Brand buyers were more promoted the purchase under price discount.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.325-342
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• 2019

Precipitation and no-precipitation events under the influence of the Siberian high pressure system in Yeondong region, were analysed and classified as four types [obvious precipitation event (OP) type, obvious no-precipitation event (ON) type, ambiguous precipitation event (AP) type and ambiguous no-precipitation event (AN) type], according to the easiness in determining whether to have precipitation or not in Yeongdong region, to help in improving the forecast skill. Concerning the synoptic pressure pattern, for OP type, the ridge of Siberian high extends from Lake Baikal toward Northeast China, and there is a northerly wind upstream of the northern mountain complex (located near the Korean-Chinese border). On the other hand, for ON type, the ridge of Siberian high extends southeastward from Lake Baikal, and there is a westerly wind upstream of the northern mountain complex. The pressure pattern of AP type was similar to the OP type and that of AN type was also similar to ON type. Thus it was difficult to differentiate AP type and OP type and AN type and ON type based on the synoptic pressure pattern only. The four types were determined by U (wind speed normal to the Taebaek mountains) and Froude number (FN). That is, for OP type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are ~2.0 and ${\sim}6m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are 0.0 and $0.1m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. On the contrary, for ON type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are 0.0 and $0.2m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are ~1.0 and ${\sim}4m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. For AP type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are ~1.0 and ${\sim}4m\;s^{-1}$, and those at Yeongseo region are 0.0 and $0.2m\;s^{-1}$, whereas for AN type, average FN and U at Yeongdong coast are 0.1 and $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ and those at Yeongseo region are ~1.0 and ${\sim}3m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. Based on the result, a schematic diagram for each type was suggested.