• 대기
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.73-104
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• 2023

Over the past 60 years, Korean numerical weather prediction (NWP) has advanced rapidly with the collaborative effort between the science community and the operational modelling center. With an improved scientific understanding and the growth of information technology infrastructure, Korea is able to provide reliable and seamless weather forecast service, which can predict beyond a 10 days period. The application of NWP has expanded to support decision making in weather-sensitive sectors of society, exploiting both storm-scale high-impact weather forecasts in a very short range, and sub-seasonal climate predictions in an extended range. This article gives an approximate chronological account of the NWP over three periods separated by breakpoints in 1990 and 2005, in terms of dynamical core, physics, data assimilation, operational system, and forecast application. Challenges for future development of NWP are briefly discussed.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1994년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.866-871
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• 1994

B-spline curves and surfaces are effective solutions for design and modelling of the freeform models. The control methods of these are using with control points, knot vectors and weight of NURBS. Using control point is easy and resonable for representation of general models. But the movement of control points bring out the reformation of original convex hull. The B-splines with nonuniform knot vector provide good result of the shape modification without convex hull reforming. B-splines are constructed with control points and basis functions. Nonuniform knot vectors effect on the basis functions. And the blending curves describe the prorities of knot vectors. Applying of these, users will forecast of the reformed curves after modifying controllabler primitives.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2005년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.159-165
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• 2005

Recently, as a result of the growing interest in modelling stationary processes with discrete marginal distributions, several models for integer valued time series have been proposed in the literature. One of theses models is the integer-valued autoregressive(INAR) models. However, when modelling with integer-valued autoregressive processes, there is not yet distributional properties of forecasts, since INAR process contain an accrued level of complexity in using the Steutal and Van Harn(1979) thinning operator 'o'. In this study, a manageable expression for the asymptotic mean square error of predicting more than one-step ahead from an estimated poisson INAR(1) model is derived. And, we present a bootstrap methods developed for the calculation of forecast interval limits of INAR(p) model. Extensive finite sample Monte Carlo experiments are carried out to compare the performance of the several bootstrap procedures.

• Nonlinear Functional Analysis and Applications
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.473-495
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• 2023

The use of mathematical modelling in the study of epidemiological disorders continues to grow substantially. In order to better support global policy initiatives and explain the possible consequence of an outbreak, mathematical models were constructed to forecast how epidemic illnesses spread. In this paper, fractional derivatives and (${\varpi}$ - F_𝓒)-contractions are used to explore the existence and uniqueness solutions of the novel coronavirus-19 model.

• 산업공학
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.382-389
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• 1999

Recently the strategic importance of Advanced Manufacturing Technology(AMT) has been increased. This paper focuses on the modelling of diffusion process of AMT from the benefit-cost analytic perspective. The mechanism of AMT diffusion includes the decision-making process of individual firms. By using the model, we can forecast the AMT diffusion level.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.37-59
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• 2014

This paper is to study dynamics of populations of religions. As human population is a crucial source of social dynamics, the religious population is a driving force that changes political and cultural landscape of society. Although many christian scholars have reported important causal factors in changing population of christian world, there are few studies on the dynamics of religious population in system dynamics. This paper interprets these dynamic mechanisms in terms of feedback loops and constructs a basic system dynamic model to forecast future trend of religious population in Korean society.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.27-38
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• 2011

본고는 우리나라 항만별 승용차 수출행태의 차이를 밝히는데 목적을 둔다. 수출은 미국의 경기와 미국 달러의 일본 엔화표시 환율의 함수로 한다. 경제이론에 의하면 미국 경기의 상승은 우리나라 항만의 승용차 수출의 증가로 나타나며, 엔화 환율의 상승은 엔화 가치하락에 따른 일본 승용차의 가격경쟁력 상승으로 우리의 승용차 수출이 감소한다. 먼저 항만별 수출모형의 안정성을 GPH 기법을 이용하여 모형의 안정성을 확보한 후 오차수정계수를 도출하여 항만간 계수의 차이가 크며, 군산항에서 가장 작고 울산항에서 가장 크다는 것을 밝힌다. OLS를 이용한 모형의 추정을 통해 3개 항만의 수출행태가 경제이론과 일치한다는 것을 보인다. 그리고 예측오차의 분산분해를 통해 항구별 승용차 수출이 경기와 환율에 대해 내생변수라는 것과 역사적 분해를 통해 경기쇼크가 3개 항만 수출변동의 주요 변수라는 것을 밝힌다.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.599-615
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• 2016

This study investigates the accuracy of short-term ocean predictions during the development of ocean stratification for the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) as well as the effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the predictions through a series of sensitive numerical experiments. Model performance is evaluated using the marine meteorological buoys at seas around the Korean peninsular (KP), Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) buoys over the tropical Pacific ocean, and ARGO floats data over the western North Pacific for boreal winter (February) and spring (May). Sensitive experiments are conducted using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model (i.e., GloSea5) and an uncoupled ocean model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean, NEMO) and their results are compared. The verification results revealed an overall good performance for the SST predictions over the tropical Pacific ocean and near the Korean marginal seas, in which the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were $0.31{\sim}0.45^{\circ}C$ and $0.74{\sim}1.11^{\circ}C$ respectively, except oceanic front regions with large spatial and temporal SST variations (the maximum error reached up to $3^{\circ}C$). The sensitive numerical experiments showed that GloSea5 outperformed NEMO over the tropical Pacific in terms of bias and RMSE analysis, while NEMO outperformed GloSea5 near the KP regions. These results suggest that the atmosphere-ocean coupling substantially influences the short-term ocean forecast over the tropical Pacific, while other factors such as atmospheric forcing and the accuracy of simulated local current are more important than the coupling effect for the KP regions being far from tropics during the development of ocean stratification.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.31-40
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• 2009

도로 건설비용의 회수, 혼잡완화 등의 목적을 위해 일부 도로에서는 통행요금을 부과하고 있으며, 민간투자사업의 활성화로 인해 유료도로는 지속적으로 증가할 전망이다. 통행요금 부과는 이용경로, 출발시간, 수단선택 등에 영향을 주며, 이 중 경로선택에 가장 큰 영향을 미친다. 이 때 도로의 요금수준과 이용자의 지불의사 또는 통행시간가치가 중요한 변수로 작용하는데, 국내에서는 통상 임금수준에 기초한 통행시간가치를 적용하고 있다. 현행 방법론을 적용하여 도로의 요금수준에 따른 교통수요변화를 살펴보면 요금탄력성이 상당히 높은 경우부터 낮은 경우까지 다양하게 나타나며, 대안 경로가 많지 않은 경우에는 특정 경로에 전량 배정되는 경우가 발생하기도 한다. 요금변화에 따른 수요의 변화는 통상 대안경로의 존재 및 혼잡정도에 따라 크게 영향을 받을 것이나, 최단경로에 전량배정되는 것과 비슷한 현상을 보이는 점은 다소 비현실적이라 판단된다. 현실적인 유료도로 수요를 추정하기 위한 방법론 개발은 장래 예상 수입액 산정 뿐만 아니라, 적정요금 수준 및 부과지점 선정, 요금부과 전략수립 등에 있어서도 매우 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 교통수요 분석시 통행요금 고려방안을 중심으로 관련문헌을 고찰하고, 통행시간가치를 차등화하여 통행배정을 수행하는 방안을 검토하였다. 분석결과 단일의 시간가치를 이용하는 것에 비해 시간가치를 차등화 하였을 때의 요금변화에 따른 유료도로 통행수요 변화 현상이 보다 현실적인 점을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.733-737
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• 2004

FThe aim of this study was to carry out a preliminary test of the air quality modelling system (HIRES-AIRCHEM) developed at The University of New South Wales, particularly with regard to the forecast ozone distribution. This was achieved by assimilating the New South Wales State Environment Protection Authority (EPA) emissions inventory, consisting of road and non-road sources, and running the system over the Sydney metropolitan area for the four day period 25-28 February 1998. During this period ozone readings exceeded the EPA's goal of 8pphm on several occasions. The model forecasts of ozone distribution verified well with the EPA's ozone readings. This result has important implications for possible future use of the system as a tool for routinely predicting and assessing air quality.