• Title/Summary/Keyword: Flood frequency analysis

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Improvement of Cross-section Estimation Method for Flood Stage Analysis in Unmeasured Streams (미계측 하천의 홍수위 해석을 위한 단면 추정 기법 개선)

  • Jun, Sang Min;Hwang, Soon Ho;Song, Jung-Hun;Kim, Si Nae;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to improve the cross-sectional area and height estimation method using stream width. Stream water levels should be calculated together to simulate inundation of agricultural land. However, cross-sectional survey data of small rural rivers are insufficient. The previous study has developed regression equations between the width and the cross-sectional area and between the width and the height of stream cross-section, but can not be applied to a wide range of stream widths. In this study, cross-sectional survey data of 6 streams (Doowol, Chungmi, Jiseok, Gam, Wonpyeong, and Bokha stream) were collected and divided into upstream, midstream and downstream considering the locations of cross-sections. The regression equations were estimated using the complete data. $R^2$ between the stream width and cross-sectional area was 0.96, and $R^2$ between width and height was 0.81. The regression equations were also estimated using divided data for upstream, midstream and downstream considering the locations of cross-sections. The range of $R^2$ between the stream width and cross-sectional area was 0.86 - 0.91, and the range of $R^2$ between width and height was 0.79 ? 0.92. As a result of estimating the cross-sections of 6 rivers using the regression equations, the regression equations considering the locations of cross-sections showed better performance both in the cross-sectional area and height estimation than the regression equations estimated using the complete data. Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to simulate the flood stage analysis of the estimated and the measured cross-sections for 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year frequency floods. As a result of flood stage analysis, the regression equations considering the locations of cross-sections also showed better performance than the regression equations estimated using the complete data. Future research would be needed to consider the factors affecting the cross-sectional shape such as river slope and average flow velocity. This study can be useful for inundation simulation of agricultural land adjacent to an unmeasured stream.

Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors (평가인자 가중치에 대한 베이지안 추론과 민감도 분석을 통한 적정 하천설계빈도 결정)

  • Ryu, Jae Hee;Kim, Ji Eun;Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Kyung-Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers and decreased for 158 rivers.

Regional Frequency Analysis by Rainfalls using GEV Distribution (GEV 분포에 의한 강우자료의 지역빈도분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.403-407
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    • 2006
  • This research aims to reduce severe damages to human beings and properties from floods that ravage Korea every year, by estimating right time to hydraulic structures based on the characteristics of variations in flood flows. To establish this permanent means for the flood mitigation, this research analyse design floods of various dams and hydraulic structures in connection with time of occurrence of the weather abnormalities in Korea. This research was derived the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions in Korea. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smimov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the GEV distribution among applied distributions. The regional and at-site analyses using L-moment for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Error tests were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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Assessment of the ENSO Impact on Frequency and Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in South Korea (ENSO가 우리나라 강우의 확률빈도와 공간분포에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Soo Jun;Kim, Byung Sik;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate impacts of ENSO on frequency and spatial distribution of rainfall in South Korea. In this paper, First, rainfall data in 60 climate stations were categorized into Warm(El Nino), Cold(La Nina), Normal episodes based on the Cold & Warm Episodes by Season, then 100 years of daily rainfall data were generated for each episodic events(El Nino, La Nina, Normal) using Markov Chain model. Finally, Estimating frequency based flood and comparison for each episodes were conducted. From the results, it shows that there are significant changes in the rainfall frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall among Warm(EL Nino), Cold(La Nina) and Normal episodes.

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Estimation of Frequency-Based Flood Using At-Site Frequency Analysis and Regional Frequency Analysis (지점빈도분석과 지역빈도분석을 이용한 확률홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Kil-Seong;Park, Kyung-Shin;Chung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Sang-Ug
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.2249-2253
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 지점빈도분석과 지역빈도분석을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정 하였다. 지점빈도 분석은 Annual Maximum Series(AMS) 및 Partial Duration Series(PDS)를 이용하여 자료를 추출하고 각 자료에 적합한 확률분포를 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 그러나 AMS를 이용한 확률홍수량의 산정은 표본의 개수가 부족하면 이에 따른 변동성(variability)이 커지게 되는 단점이 존재하며, PDS를 사용하면 임계값(threshold)에 따른 주관적 영향이 결과에 반영되는 단점이 존재하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 PDS를 사용하는 경우의 단점을 해결하기 위해 연 1.7회의 발생횟수를 갖는 자료를 추출하고 몬테카를로 모의시험을 통하여 주관적 영향을 제거하였다. 또한 두 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량의 비교검토를 위해 지역빈도분석을 수행하였다. 유역의 면적과 일평균강우량으로부터 확률홍수량을 산정할 수 있는 것으로 알려진 Bayesian-Generalized Least Square(B-GLS) 방법을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 안양천 유역의 13개 소유역에 대한 세 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량을 비교 검토한 결과, 특정한 방법이 항상 우수하다는 결론은 얻을 수 없었으나 각 유역별로 AMS가 가장 크고 B-GLS가 가장 작은 확률홍수량을 갖는 경향을 나타내었다.

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Analysis of the flood Characteristics in the Woo-Ee Stream Using FLOW-3D (FLOW-3D를 이용한 우이천의 홍수특성 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Moon, Young-Il;Kim, Jong-Suk;Oh, Keun-Taek;Lee, Su-Gon
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.603-607
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    • 2007
  • Recently, the frequency of unexpecting heavy rains has been increased due to abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. There was a limit to analyze one dimension or two dimension stream flow of domestic rivers that was applied simple momentum equation and fixed energy conservation. Therefore, hydrodynamics flow analysis in rivers has been needed three dimensional numerical analysis for correct stream flow interpolation. In this study, CFD model on FLOW-3D was applied to stream flow analysis, which solves three dimension RANS(Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equation) control equation to find out physical behavior and the effect of hydraulic structures. Numerical simulation accomplished those results was compared by using turbulence models such as $k-{\backepsilon}$, RNG $k-{\backepsilon}$ and LES. Those numerical analysis results have been illustrated to bends and junctions by the turbulence energy effects, velocity of flow distributions, water level pressure distributions and eddy flows.

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A Study for the Water Rising Effect on Flood Water Level by Debris (유송잡물에 의한 홍수위 상승 영향분석 - 삽교천의 선우대교를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Yong-Ho;Jeong, Sang-Man;Han, Kyu-Ha;Shin, Kwang-Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2007
  • This paper has investigated a rise of water level in upstream and downstream of bridge, which is caused by accumulation of debris in a bridge. The debris has been classified into several types in terms of size. The rise of water level which has been caused by installation and removal of sheet pile that is used to block water in a bridge has been analyzed using HEC-RAS model. According to the analysis, it has turned out that the debris has no influence on the rise of water level in ordinary water flow. In addition, sheet pile has little impact on the rise of water as well. Even though the impact of sheet file has turned out trivial in flood flow just like the ordinary water flow, it's been simulated that the maximum water level difference between upstream and downstream of bridge turned out more than 1.0meter because of debris in 80-year or more flood frequency. When the rise of water level in upstream from the cross section of the bridge was investigated based on 100-year flood frequency, besides, it has turned out that it had an influence up to 17.84km distance because of the effect of debris.

A Study on the Flood Reduction in Eco-Delta City in Busan using Observation Rainfall and Flood Modelling (관측 강우와 침수모의를 이용한 부산 에코델타시티 수해저감에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, YoonKu;Kim, SeongRyul;Jeon, HaeSeong;Choo, YeonMoon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2020
  • The increase in the area of impervious water due to the recent abnormal weather conditions and rapid urbanization led to a decrease in the amount of low current, resulting in an increase in the amount of surface runoff. Increased surface runoff is causing erosion, destruction of underwater ecosystems, human and property damage in urban areas due to flooding of urban river. The damage has been increasing in Korea recently due to localized heavy rains, typhoons and floods. As a countermeasure, the Busan Metropolitan Government will proceed with the creation of the Eco-Delta City waterfront zone in Busan with the aim of creating a future-oriented waterfront city from 2012 to 2023. Therefore, the current urban river conditions and precipitation data were collected by utilizing SWMM developed by the Environment Protection Agency, and the target basin was selected to simulate flood damage. Measures to reduce flood damage in various cases were proposed using simulated data. It is a method to establish a disaster prevention plan for each case by establishing scenario for measures to reduce flood damage. Considering structural and non-structural measures by performing an analysis of the drainage door with a 30-year frequency of 80 minutes duration, the expansion effect of the drainage pump station is considered to be greater than that of the expansion of the drainage door, and 8 scenarios and corresponding alternatives were planned in combination with the pre-excluding method, which is a non-structural disaster prevention measure. As a result of the evaluation of each alternative, it was determined that 100㎥/s of the pump station expansion and the pre-excluding EL.(-)1.5m were the best alternatives.

A Study on the Minimum Flow Frequency Analysis by SMEMAX Transformation (SMEMAX변환에 의한 온수빈도분석에 관한 연구)

  • 이순혁;박명근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.138-144
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    • 1987
  • This study was conducted to pursue the normalization of frequency distribution by making approach the coefficient of skewness to nearly zero tbrough SMEMAX transformation and to get probable minimum flows can be acquired by means of transforrnation equation which has been derivated by SMEMAX method to the annual minimum flow series of five watersheds along Geum river basin. The results obtained through SMEMAX method were compared with probable minimum flows according to return periods by Type III extremal distribution which has been determined as the best fitted one among probablility distributions for the analysis of minimum flow. All the results obtained through this study are summarized as follows. 1.SMEMAX transformation based on median value was proved to be the best method when the coefficient of skewness has less reliability because of the short duration for the observation and were not affected by accidental outliers. 2.SMEMAX transformation has found to be the best one for the coefficient of skewness to be made nearly zero in comparison with log and cubic root transformation. 3.Probable minimum flows according to the return periods were derivated by transformation equations obtained through theoretical analysis of SMEM AX transformation. 4.In general, probable minimum flows by SMEMAX method were appeared as higher values in the range of five and twenty years and as lower ones in the range of below than five and more than fifty years in return periods respectively, in comparison with the results of type III extremal distribution. 5.Relative errors in the probable minimum flows of SMEMAX method to the results of type III extremal distribution were shown to be within ten percent except those of one hundred years in return periods. 6.SMEMAX method was also confirmed to be useful for the analysis of minimum flow frequency as well as flood frequency analysis.

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An Analysis of the Characteristics in Design Rainfall According to the Data Periods (자료기간에 따른 확률 강우량 변화 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Kim, Min-Seok;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2009
  • Recently, Natural disasters are increasing the damage according to the influence of the abnormal climate and climate change. This study analyzed change characteristic of Design Rainfall according to the different data periods. First, 14 observatories were selected at Meteorological Administration. Second, frequency analysis carried out 5 cases by different data periods. At the results of the frequency analysis, the design rainfall could confirm the increase in most areas of Korea. Also, the change and trend analysis carried out for characteristic analysis by design rainfall and observed rainfall. The change and trend analysis of observed annual maximum rainfall did not appeared, but the change and trend analysis of design rainfall significantly appeared using statistic methods. The result of the change and trend analysis, design rainfall increased in most areas of Korea. Although, it could be the necessity for reestimating defense ability of flood, existing river systems, and new establishment of structure about the change characteristic.