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Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS) (확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측)

  • Lee Dong-Eun;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

Retrospective Study about the Effectiveness of a long-term Korean Medicine Treatment on 1035 Atopic Dermatitis Patients (아토피피부염 환자 1035명의 장기간의 한의학적 치료효과에 대한 후향적 연구)

  • Cho, Ah-Ra;Han, Su-Ryun;Park, Gun;Seo, San
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2015
  • Objective : The purpose of this study is to report the effectiveness of a long-term Korean Medicine Treatment on 1035 atopic dermatitis patients Methods : Objective SCORAD Index(OSI) is used for measuring the degree of atopic dermatitis with photos of total 1035 atopic dermatitis patients who has visited oriental clinic from January 9, 2011 to October 31, 2013. Then, OSI was estimated according to gender, age, period of treatment and intensity. Results : 1. The ratio of male to female was 44.4 : 55.6. All patients were constituted with 26.5% of 0~11 year-old group, 15.7% of 12~18 year-old and 57.9% of 19 and more year-old. 2. The ratio of OSI improvement was significantly higher in women than in men after 3 month treatment, but there was no significant difference after 6, 9 and 12 months. 3. The OSI improvement of 0~11 year-old group was significantly higher than the other groups after 3 month treatment. But at the other periods of treatment, there was no significantly difference of the improvement among 3 different groups of age. 4. After 3, 6, 9 and 12 month treatment, the score of OSI was significantly lower than before treatment. After 12 month treatment, the score of OSI was lowest compared to the other periods of treatment. 5. The final OSI score of 87.7% patients was decreased compared to the initial. 6. All patients had been divided with 1.93% of the mild, 22.7% of the moderate and 75.4% of the severe by OSI intensity at initial visit. At final visit, the composition of patients was changed to 14.6% of the mild, 53.7% of the moderate and 31.7% of the severe. 7. The mild patients had got 42.56% of OSI improvement at the final. And the moderate had got 37.72% of OSI improvement at the final. 8. The severe patients had got 36.76% of OSI improvement at the final. And 89.2% of the severe had got decreased final OSI score compared to the initial. Conclusion : There was a definite decreasing of OSI score on the significant rate of Atopic dermatitis patients who had been treated by Korean medicine treatment at least for 3 months.

The effect of feeding frequency, water temperature, and stocking density on the growth of river puffer Takifugu obscurus reared in a zero-exchange water system

  • Yoo, Gwang-Yeol;Lee, Jeong-Yeol
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.23.1-23.7
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    • 2016
  • The effects of daily feeding frequency (Exp I), water temperature (Exp II), and stocking density (Exp III) on the growth of river puffer, Takifugu obscurus, juvenile fish of 10 and 40 g in body weight were examined to develop effective techniques to produce river puffer in a non-exchange water system. In Exp I, fish were fed commercial floating feed with 45 % protein one to five times per day to apparent satiation each by hand daily for 8 weeks at $25^{\circ}C$. In both the 10- and 40-g size groups, the final body weight, daily feed consumption, and weight gain of fish fed one meal per day were significantly lower than those of fish fed five meals per day (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in the final body weight, daily feed consumption, and weight gain among fish fed two, three, and five meals per day. Feed efficiency showed decreasing tendency with increasing size of fish. In Exp II, fish of 10 and 40 g in initial body weight were reared with the commercial feed at $15-30^{\circ}C$ for 8 weeks. The weight gain of fish increased with raising water temperature up to $25^{\circ}C$ and decreased drastically at $30^{\circ}C$ for both sizes. The Q10 of specific growth rate was decreased with raising water temperature from 5.04 (temperature interval, $15-20^{\circ}C$) to 0.66 ($25-30^{\circ}C$) for the 10-g fish and from 4.98 to 0.31 for the 40-g fish. In Exp III, the effect of stocking density on growth was examined with fish of 10 and 40 g in initial body weight. The final body weight for initial stocking densities of 4, 8, and $12kg/m^3$ was significantly higher than that of $20kg/m^3$ for the 10-g fish, and the final stocking density reached 10.1, 19.2, 28.7, and $39.9kg/m^3$, respectively. For the 40-g fish, the final body weight for initial stocking densities of 3 and $6kg/m^3$ was significantly higher than that of 9 and $15kg/m^3$ and the final stocking density reached 7.38, 13.5, 17.1, and $27.5kg/m^3$, respectively (P < 0.05). In both groups, weight gain tended to decrease with increasing stocking density; however, survival showed no significant difference.

양액 재배하에서 질소시비가 옥수수 ( Zea mays L. ) 생육에 미치는 영향

  • 최정선;김무성
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 1993
  • This experiments were carries out to estimate the optimum final cutting date in autumn and the selection of highly adaptable varieties in mountainous pastures of Taekwalyong area. The evaluations were based on the data of varietal differences of dry weight of lant(DW) and yield components of the 1st cutting as affected by various final cutting dates of last autumn. Nine varieties of fall fescue Barvetia, Fuego, Demeter, Safe Barcel Forager, Johnstone, Enforcer and Stef, were used and 4 final cutting date of autumn were $C_1$, cut on 30 Sept. $C_2$, on 14 Oct. $C_3$, on 28 Oct. and $C_4$ on 11 Nov.. respectively. The results obtained were as follows; 1. Between the dry weight of plant(DM) and yield components of 1st cutting were different by various final cutting dates of autumn. The dry weight of plant(DW) was significantly positive correlated with heading characteristics of the 1st cutting in earlier cuttings$(C_1-C_3)$ of autumn, but there was not significant correlated with heading characteristics of the 1st cutting in the latest cutting$(C_4)$ of autumn. 2. The variety of Forager with heavier weight of heading tiller(HTW) and dry weight of tiller(WT) showed the highest dry weight plant(DW) of the 1st cutting in earlier cuttings$(C_1-C_3)$ of autumn, whereas the variety of Barcel with high number of tillers per plant(NT) showed a high dry weight of plant(DW) of the 1st cutting in the latest cutting$(C_4)$ of autumn. 3. Optimum final cutting date and critical period of mountainous pastures in Taekwalyong area were estimated in late September$(C_1)$ and middle October$(C_2)$, sespectirety. 4. The dry weight of plant(DW) of the 1st cutting was significantly negative correlated with final cutting dates in growth period of autumn.

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Incidence of Microorganisms during Slaughtering Process of Cattle (소 도축공정 중의 미생물 증감 추이)

  • Cha Seong-Kwan;Kim Yun-Ji;Kim Myung-Ho;Shin Jeom-Ho;Lee Moo-Ha
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.232-237
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    • 2004
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the microbiological quality of beef carcasses at different slaughtering process in large (>100 cattle/day) and small (<30 cattle/day) scale slaughtering houses. Swabbing method was used to analyze the incidence of microorganisms on brisket surface of beef carcasses in each process of after dehiding, after evisceration, before and final wash, and in cold room. In winter time, large scale slaughterhouse showed lower incidence of aerobic microorganisms (10$\^$0/∼10$^2$ CFU/$\textrm{cm}^2$) than those of small scale slaughterhouse (10$\^$0/-10$^3$ CFU/$\textrm{cm}^2$) during the slaughtering process of after dehiding, evisceration and before final wash. But samples from carcasses after final wash and in cold room storage showed no difference in aerobic cell counts between large and small scale slaughterhouse. In spring time, samples showed higher incidence of microorganisms by the log scale 1 than those of winter time in both of small and large scale slaughterhouse. After final wash, different sampling place in carcass such as rump, flank, brisket showed the different washing effect in both of small and large scale slaughterhouse. After final wash, samples from rump showed lower aerobic cell counts, but samples from flank and brisket showed higher aerobic cell counts than samples from each site before final wash.

Analysis of the Final Cutting Ages in Quercus variabilis Coppice Forests (굴참나무 맹아갱신지의 벌기령 추정)

  • Park, Joon Hyung;Chung, Sang Hoon;Kim, Sun Hee;Kim, Hyungho;Lee, Sang Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.4
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    • pp.468-476
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    • 2020
  • we developed a stand density management diagram for Quercus variabilis in order to predict the final cutting ages of coppice forests based on management objectives. The sample data were classified into two groups: 603 data points for analysis and 113 data points for verification. Using these data, a stand density management diagram was constructed and a goodness-of-fit test was performed. The explanatory power (R2) of the constituent models for the stand density management diagram was 0.732 for the equivalent height curve and 0.990 for the equivalent diameter curve. According to the analysis of the final cutting age rangeof the highest production, the final cutting ages for 900 buds remaining per hectare was 42-44 years, and that for the 1,800 buds remaining per hectare was 38-42 years. With the third-grade log set as the production target, the final cutting age range with site index 16 and 14 was 25-28 years and 29-33 years, respectively. The results of this study provide baseline data for establishing a management plan for Q. variabilis coppice stands.

The Impact of Opening Day Box Office Performance on a Movie's Final Box Office: Focusing on a Movie's Box Office Rank on an Opening Day (영화의 개봉일 흥행성과가 영화의 최종 흥행에 미치는 영향: 개봉일 흥행순위를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Sung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to find out predictors of a movie's eventual box office, focusing on a movie's box office rank on an opening day. For an empirical analysis, I use data of 794 commercial movies released in the Korean theatrical exhibition market during the recent five years(2013~2017). The regression analysis shows that being box office number one on an opening day has statistically significant impact on a movie's final box office. A movie's quality, measured by audience's review, does not give significant impact on top1 movie's final success. Indexes such as increase of showing number on Sunday are strongly related to a movie's economic success. The additional analysis on box office number one movie on an opening day, totally 158 movies, finds that box office growth rate on a second week is strongly related to a movie's final success. Lastly, correlation coefficient of a movie's opening day box office and final box office does not show consistent growth when the coefficient is compared yearly. This study might have meaning in that it proposes new box office predictors and shows the relation of the indexes and a movie's final performance empirically.

Speed Control of D.C Motor based on Deadbeat Response (직류 전동기의 유한 시간 정정 응답 제어)

  • Kim, Young-Seok;You, Wan-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1990.11a
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    • pp.371-374
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    • 1990
  • This paper presents the speed control of dc motor based on deadbeat response. The deadbeat response is that the output reaches the final value in the minimum possible settling time and stays there. This results demonstrate that the output reaches final value in one sampling time for the unsaturated region, and in one sampling time after getting free from the saturation state for the saturated region.

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Phonetic Evidence for Silent Beats in English

  • Kim, Hyo-Young
    • Korean Journal of English Language and Linguistics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2003
  • This paper proposes an empty constituent, a silent beat, to express long duration of stressed syllable in the word final position and rhythmic correspondence in English. This empty constituent has an important consequence. It helps reveal one of the characteristics English feet have: they must be non-final in nouns as well as in verbs. In addition, the silent beats overcome the shortcomings of empty constituents proposed previously, namely null vowels (Burzio 1994) and invisible suffixes (Hammond 1999).

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Prosodic Analyses of Sentences Produced by Transgenders (성전환자의 문장발화에 대한 운율적 특성 분석)

  • Jo Sung-Mi;Jeong Ok-Ran
    • MALSORI
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    • no.49
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2004
  • This study compared pitch range, total duration of utterances, pause, boundary tones and mean duration of intonation final syllables of 4 sentences produced by 5 transgenders (male to female) to those of twenty normal adults. Voice analysis was performed by Praat (version 4.049). The results showed that there were differences in pitch range, total duration of utterances, pause, boundary tones and mean duration of intonation final syllables among the 3 groups(transgenders, normal males and normal females).

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