• 제목/요약/키워드: Failure rate prediction

검색결과 195건 처리시간 0.027초

멀티노즐시스템의 노즐마개 파열 거동 분석 (An Evaluation on Rupture Behavior of Nozzle Closure in Multi-Nozzle System)

  • 노영희
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제42권9호
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    • pp.745-751
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    • 2014
  • 멀티 노즐로 구성된 추진기관의 경우, 각 노즐별 노즐마개 파열압력의 편차가 초기 분력을 유발하고 유도탄의 비행안정성에 영향을 미친다. 따라서 노즐마개 설계 시 먼저 형태별로 파열거동을 분석하여 원하는 파열압력에서 균일하게 파열되는지를 확인해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 평판형, "+" 노치형 노즐마개에 대한 파열거동을 실험적, 해석적인 방법으로 분석하였다. 실험 시 저장온도, 노치의 유무, 노치방향에 따른 노즐마개 파열압력 및 편차를 분석하였다. 그리고 유한요소해석을 통해 노즐마개의 파열거동을 순차적으로 분석하고, 그 결과를 실험값과 비교하여 정확성을 검증하고자 하였다. 해석 시 상용프로그램인 Abaqus/Explicit를 사용하였고, 파손모델은 Johnson-cook 전단파손모델을 적용하였다.

패치로딩을 받는 알루미늄 합금 플레이트 거더의 강도 예측에 대한 기초 연구 (Basic Research for Resistance Prediction of Aluminium Alloy Plate Girders Subjected to Patch Loading)

  • 오영철;배동균;고재용
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.218-227
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 실험 모형을 이용한 탄소성 대변형 시리즈 해석을 수행하여 플레이트 거더의 파손모드와 최종하중을 예측하였다. 수치해석 모형의 붕괴모드는 재하 시 플랜지에서 소성 힌지가 형성되었으며 실험모형의 붕괴모드와 일치하였다. 또한, 웹에서 항복선이 형성되어 크리플링 붕괴모드가 발생하는 것을 관찰할 수 있었으며 각각의 실험모형과 수치모형 최종하중의 평균값 1.07, 표준편차 0.04, 변동계수 0.04로 선형성을 유지하였으며 전체 최종하중 결과도 대략 8 % 오차를 나타내었다. 이는 수치모형 결과가 실험 및 적용 기준에 매우 만족하고 양호한 결과를 도출하였다고 생각한다. 따라서 알루미늄합금 플레이트 거더의 최종하중 예측 시 실험 및 적용 기준과 함께 병행하여 적용을 한다면 이에 대한 합리적 안전수준을 유지한다면 더 효율적이고 경제적 알루미늄 합금 플레이트 거더의 파손모드 및 최종하중에 대해 예측할 수 있을 거라고 생각한다.

토모테라피에서 선량품질보증 분석을 위한 통계적공정관리의 타당성 (Feasibility on Statistical Process Control Analysis of Delivery Quality Assurance in Helical Tomotherapy)

  • 장경환
    • 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
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    • 제45권6호
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    • pp.491-502
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to retrospectively investigate the upper and lower control limits of treatment planning parameters using EBT film based delivery quality assurance (DQA) results and to analyze the results of statistical process control (SPC) in helical tomotherapy (HT). A total of 152 patients who passed or failed DQA results were retrospectively included in this study. Prostate (n = 66), rectal (n = 51), and large-field cancer patients, including lymph nodes (n = 35), were randomly selected. The absolute point dose difference (DD) and global gamma passing rate (GPR) were analyzed for all patients. Control charts were used to evaluate the upper and lower control limits (UCL and LCL) for all the assessed treatment planning parameters. Treatment planning parameters such as gantry period, leaf open time (LOT), pitch, field width, actual and planning modulation factor, treatment time, couch speed, and couch travel were analyzed to provide the optimal range using the DQA results. The classification and regression tree (CART) was used to predict the relative importance of variables in the DQA results from various treatment planning parameters. We confirmed that the proportion of patients with an LOT below 100 ms in the failure group was relatively higher than that in the passing group. SPC can detect QA failure prior to over dosimetric QA tolerance levels. The acceptable tolerance range of each planning parameter may assist in the prediction of DQA failures using the SPC tool in the future.

극단 손실값들을 이용한 VaR의 추정과 사후검정: 사례분석 (Estimation of VaR Using Extreme Losses, and Back-Testing: Case Study)

  • 서성효;김성곤
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.219-234
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    • 2010
  • 시가총액에 따른 인덱스(INDEX) 투자를 했을 경우에, VaR(Value at Risk)을 종합주가지수(KOSPI)로부터 얻은 수익율의 극단 손실값들로부터 추정한다. 이를 위해, 극단값 이론 중 BM(Block Maxima) 모형을 적용하며, 극단 손실값들의 비독립적 발생을 고려하기 위하여, extremal index 역시 추정한다. 모형의 타당성을 알아보기 위해, 실패율방법을 이용한 사후검정 (back-testing) 을 실시한다. 사후검정을 통해, BM 모형을 적용한 VaR의 추정이 적절함을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 일반적으로 많이 사용되는 GARCH 모형을 이용한 VaR의 추정과 비교한다. 이를 통해, 오차가 t-분포를 따른다고 가정하는 경우, GARCH 모형을 이용한 VaR의 추정이 BM 모형을 이용한 경우와 사후 검정결과에 차이가 없음을 확인하였다. 그러나, GARCH 모형을 통한 VaR 추정은 추정시점근방의 극단 손실값들에 민감하게 반응하지만, BM 모형은 그렇지 않았다. 따라서, 현 시점으로부터 단기간동안의 손실위험은 GARCH 모형을 이용한 VaR의 추정값을 사용하는 것이 적절하며, 장기간동안의 손실위험은 BM 모형으로부터 얻은 VaR의 추정값을 사용하는 것이 적절하다.

Off-Site 패키지형 수소충전소의 FTA 분석 (A Study on FTA of Off-Site Packaged Hydrogen Station)

  • 서두현;김태훈;이광원;최영은
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2020
  • For the fault tree analysis (FTA) analysis of the packaged hydrogen filling station, the composition of the charging station was analyzed and the fault tree (FT) diagram was prepared. FT diagrams were created by dividing the causes of events into external factors and internal factors with the hydrogen event as the top event. The external factors include the effects of major disasters caused by natural disasters and external factors as OR gates. Internal factors are divided into tube tailer, compressor & storage tank, and dispenser, which are composed of mistakes in operation process and causes of accidents caused by parts leakage. In this study, the purpose was to improve the hydrogen station. The subjects of this study were domestic packaged hydrogen stations and FTA study was conducted based on the previous studies, failure mode & effect analysis (FMEA) and hazard & operability study (HAZOP). Top event as a hydrogen leaking event and constructed the flow of events based on the previous study. Refer to "Off shore and onshore reliability data 6th edition", "European Industry Reliability Data Bank", technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) for reliability data. We hope that this study will help to improve the safety and activation of the hydrogen station.

음향방출시험에 의한 복합 재료 접합부의 비파괴평가 (Evaluation of Adhesive Bonding Quality by Acoustic Emission)

  • 이종오;이주석;윤운하;이승희
    • 비파괴검사학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 1996
  • 복합 재료의 single-lap 및 double-strap adhesive bonding joint 시험편에서 피로 및 인장시험시 방출되는 AE 신호의 분석에 의한 피로 수명 예측 및 파괴 과정의 감시에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. Bonding 시험편의 피로시험시 AE event의 발생양상은 피로에 의해 축적된 elastic strain energy의 방출과 관계되며, peak amplitude가 높고 event duration이 긴 event의 발생 영역과 peak amplitude가 낮고 event duration이 짧으나 많은 event가 발생되는 영역으로 나눌 수 있었다. 그리고 두 영역 사이의 경계 cycle은 피로 수명의 70-80% 근방에 존재하였으며, 이를 이용한다면 피로 수명의 예측이 가능하리라 판단된다.

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연성파괴이론에 의한 마그네슘 합금 EL-cover 부품 온간 성형 공정 설계 (Design for Warm Forming of a Mg El-cover Part Using a Ductile Fracture Criterion)

  • 김상우;이영선
    • 소성∙가공
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.238-243
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    • 2014
  • Recently, magnesium alloys have been widely used in the automotive, aerospace and electronics industries with the advantages of high specific strength, excellent machinability, high electrical conductivity, and high thermal conductivity. Deep drawn magnesium alloys not only meet the demands environmentally and the need for lighter products, but also can lead to remarkably improved productivity and more rapid qualification of the product The current study reports on a failure prediction procedure using finite element modeling (FEM) and a ductile fracture criterion and applies this procedure to the design of a deep drawing process. Critical damage values were determined from a series of uniaxial tensile tests and FEM simulations. They were then expressed as a function of strain rate and temperature. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FEM analyses of the warm drawing process and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted. The proposed method was applied to the process design for fabrication of a Mg automotive compressor case and verified with experimental results. The final results indicate that a Mg case part 39% lighter than an Al die casting part can be produced without any defects.

Statistical Approach for Corrosion Prediction Under Fuzzy Soil Environment

  • Kim, Mincheol;Inakazu, Toyono;Koizumi, Akira;Koo, Jayong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2013
  • Water distribution pipes installed underground have potential risks of pipe failure and burst. After years of use, pipe walls tend to be corroded due to aggressive soil environments where they are located. The present study aims to assess the degree of external corrosion of a distribution pipe network. In situ data obtained through test pit excavation and direct sampling are carefully collated and assessed. A statistical approach is useful to predict severity of pipe corrosion at present and in future. First, criteria functions defined by discriminant function analysis are formulated to judge whether the pipes are seriously corroded. Data utilized in the analyses are those related to soil property, i.e., soil resistivity, pH, water content, and chloride ion. Secondly, corrosion factors that significantly affect pipe wall pitting (vertical) and spread (horizontal) on the pipe surface are identified with a view to quantifying a degree of the pipe corrosion. Finally, a most reliable model represented in the form of a multiple regression equation is developed for this purpose. From these analyses, it can be concluded that our proposed model is effective to predict the severity and rate of pipe corrosion utilizing selected factors that reflect the fuzzy soil environment.

Numerical model for local corrosion of steel reinforcement in reinforced concrete structure

  • Chen, Xuandong;Zhang, Qing;Chen, Ping;Liang, Qiuqun
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.385-393
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    • 2021
  • Reinforcement corrosion is the main cause of the durability failure of reinforced concrete (RC) structure. In this paper, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical model of macro-cell corrosion is established to reveal the corrosion mechanisms of steel reinforcement in RC structure. Modified Direct Iteration Method (MDIM) is employed to solve the system of partial differential equations for reinforcement corrosion. Through the sensitivity analysis of electrochemical parameters, it is found that the average corrosion current density is more sensitive to the change of cathodic Tafel slope and anodic equilibrium potential, compared with the other electrochemical parameters. Furthermore, both the anode-to-cathode (A/C) ratio and the anodic length have significant influences on the average corrosion current density, especially when A/C ratio is less than 0.5 and anodic length is less than 35 mm. More importantly, it is demonstrated that the corrosion rate of semi-circumferential corrosion is much larger than that of circumferential corrosion for the same A/C ratio value. The simulation results can give a unique insight into understanding the detailed electrochemical corrosion processes of steel reinforcement in RC structure for application in service life prediction of RC structures in actual civil engineer.

Improving Web Service Recommendation using Clustering with K-NN and SVD Algorithms

  • Weerasinghe, Amith M.;Rupasingha, Rupasingha A.H.M.
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.1708-1727
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    • 2021
  • In the advent of the twenty-first century, human beings began to closely interact with technology. Today, technology is developing, and as a result, the world wide web (www) has a very important place on the Internet and the significant task is fulfilled by Web services. A lot of Web services are available on the Internet and, therefore, it is difficult to find matching Web services among the available Web services. The recommendation systems can help in fixing this problem. In this paper, our observation was based on the recommended method such as the collaborative filtering (CF) technique which faces some failure from the data sparsity and the cold-start problems. To overcome these problems, we first applied an ontology-based clustering and then the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm for each separate cluster group that effectively increased the data density using the past user interests. Then, user ratings were predicted based on the model-based approach, such as singular value decomposition (SVD) and the predictions used for the recommendation. The evaluation results showed that our proposed approach has a less prediction error rate with high accuracy after analyzing the existing recommendation methods.