• 제목/요약/키워드: Failure rate prediction

검색결과 198건 처리시간 0.026초

안전주입 실패를 동반한 제어봉구동장치 관통부 파단 사고 실험 기반 국내 안전해석코드 SPACE 예측 능력 평가 (Evaluation of SPACE Code Prediction Capability for CEDM Nozzle Break Experiment with Safety Injection Failure)

  • 남경호
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2022
  • The Korean nuclear industry had developed the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis Code for nuclear power plants) code, which adopts a two-fluid, three-field model that is comprised of gas, continuous liquid and droplet fields and has the capability to simulate three-dimensional models. According to the revised law by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) in Korea, the multiple failure accidents that must be considered for the accident management plan of a nuclear power plant was determined based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Generally, to improve the reliability of the calculation results of a safety analysis code, verification is required for the separate and integral effect experiments. Therefore, the goal of this work is to verify the calculation capability of the SPACE code for multiple failure accidents. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted to simulate a Control Element Drive Mechanism (CEDM) break with a safety injection failure using the ATLAS test facility, which is operated by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). This experiment focused on the comparison between the experiment results and code calculation results to verify the performance of the SPACE code. The results of the overall system transient response using the SPACE code showed similar trends with the experimental results for parameters such as the system pressure, mass flow rate, and collapsed water level in component. In conclusion, it can be concluded that the SPACE code has sufficient capability to simulate a CEDM break with a safety injection failure accident.

머신러닝 기반 건강컨설팅 성공여부 예측모형 개발 (Developing a Model for Predicting Success of Machine Learning based Health Consulting)

  • 이상호;송태민
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2018
  • This study developed a prediction model using machine learning technology and predicted the success of health consulting by using life log data generated through u-Health service. The model index of the Random Forest model was the highest using. As a result of analyzing the Random Forest model, blood pressure was the most influential factor in the success or failure of metabolic syndrome in the subjects of u-Health service, followed by triglycerides, body weight, blood sugar, high cholesterol, and medication appear. muscular, basal metabolic rate and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were increased; waist circumference, Blood sugar and triglyceride were decreased. Further, biometrics and health behavior improved. After nine months of u-health services, the number of subjects with four or more factors for metabolic syndrome decreased by 28.6%; 3.7% of regular drinkers stopped drinking; 23.2% of subjects who rarely exercised began to exercise twice a week or more; and 20.0% of smokers stopped smoking. If the predictive model developed in this study is linked with CBR, it can be used as case study data of CBR with high probability of success in the prediction model to improve the compliance of the subject and to improve the qualitative effect of counseling for the improvement of the metabolic syndrome.

GIS를 이용한 암반사면 파괴분석과 산사태 위험도 (Rock Slope Failure Analysis and Landslide Risk Map by Using GIS)

  • 권혜진;김교원
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제30권12호
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 지리산 북쪽의 과거 산사태 발생영역에서 조사된 절리특성과 GIS를 이용하여 추출한 지형특성을 근거하여 연구지역에서 예상되는 암반사면 파괴유형을 분석하였다. 또 해발고도, 사면방향, 사면경사, 음영도, 곡률, 하천 이격거리 등 6개의 지형특성 인자의 빈도비를 중첩하여 산사태 예측도를 작성하였으며, 산사태 예측도와 도로 및 주거지와 같은 지역의 인문적인 인자를 고려한 산사태 피해도를 조합하여 최종적으로 연구지역의 산사태 위험도를 작성하였다. 연구지역에서 발생한 산사태의 지형적 특성을 분석한 결과, 해발고도 330~710m에서 88%, 사면방향 동남-남-남서 방향($90{\sim}270^{\circ}$)에서 77.7%, 사면경사 $10{\sim}40^{\circ}$에서 93.39%, 음영도 등급3~7에서 82.78%, 곡률특성 -5~+5에서 86.28%, 하천 이격거리 400m 이내에서 82.92%가 발생하였다. 산사태가 발생한 영역의 75%는 산사태 위험도에서 위험 등급이 '높음' 이상인 지역이어서 위험 예측에 대한 신뢰성이 확인되었으며, 연구지역의 13.27%는 산사태 위험에 노출된 것으로 분석되었다.

우주 시스템의 신뢰성 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Reliability Prediction for Space Systems)

  • 유승우;이백준;진영권
    • 항공우주기술
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.227-239
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    • 2006
  • 신뢰성 예측은 설계안 중 하나를 선택하거나, 적용되는 부품의 품질 수준, 부하경감(derating) 정도, 기존의 입증기술 또는 최신기술의 채택여부 등과 같은 사항을 설계시 결정하는 데에 합리적인 근거를 제공할 수 있으므로, 우주 시스템의 개발과정에 있어서 필수적인 사항으로 인식되고 있다. 신뢰성의 정량적인 표현을 위해서는 수치적인 정보와 그 정보를 생성하기 위한 기법의 정확성이 확보되어야 하며, 설계에 대한 평가를 돕고, 신뢰성 요구조건 할당, 시정조치 우선순위 결정 등의 기초자료로 적용하기 위하여 개념설계 초기 단계에서부터 수행되어야 한다. 대상품의 설계, 환경 요구조건, 운용환경 데이터, 고장률 데이터 또는 운용 프로파일의 변경이 발생할 때마다 업데이트되어야 한다. 본 논문에서는 우주시스템 개발과정에서 수행되는 신뢰성 예측을 위한 세부절차, 정량적 데이터의 도출 및 적용기법 등에 대하여 검토하였다.

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펌프 베어링하우징에서 베어링과 오일의 과열 및 오일수명 예측 (Prediction of Oil Lifetime due to Overheating of Oil and Bearing Housing in a Pump)

  • 한상규;강병하;이봉주
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.408-413
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    • 2004
  • An experimental study has been carried out to investigate overheating of oil and bearing housing during pump operation. This problem is of particular interest in the pre diction of lifetime and failure of pump. Transient variation of oil temperature as well as bearing housing temperature is measured to study the effect of oil viscosity, oil amount, and discharge flow rate of pump. It is found that optimal oil quantity as well as proper viscosity of oil is required to keep the safe temperature level of oil and bearing housing in a pump. The oil temperature at steady state is almost not affected by discharge flow rate in the range of discharge flow rates considered in the present study.

도시철도 전력설비의 노후화 판단을 위한 예측 프로그램 구현 (Implementation of Prediction Program for Deterioration Judgment on Substation Power Systems in Urban Railway)

  • 정호성;박영;강현일
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제62권6호
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    • pp.881-885
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we present a deterioration judgment model of urban rail power equipment using driving history, the frequency and number of failures. In addition, we have developed a deterioration judgment program based on the derived failure rate. A deterioration judgment model of power equipments on metro system was designed to establish how much environmental factors, such as thermal cycling, humidity, overvoltage and partial discharge. The deterioration rate of the transformers followed the Arrhenius log life versus reciprocal Kelvin temperature (hotspot temperature) relation. The deterioration judgment program is linked to the online condition monitoring system of urban railway system. The deterioration judgment program is based on the user interface it is possible to apply immediately to the urban rail power equipment.

신뢰도모델링에 의한 이중계제어기 전원공급방식 설계에 관한 연구 (A Study on Power Supply Method Design for Hot Standby Sparing System via Reliability Modeling)

  • 신덕호;이강미;이재호;김용규
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제10권5호
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    • pp.527-532
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    • 2007
  • 본 논문은 철도신호에서 사용되는 이중계제어장치의 전원공급방식에 대하여 상수고장률을 기반으로 하는 평균고장률에 의한 설계와 신뢰도함수에 의한 설계방안을 제안한다. 일반적으로 시스템 운명이전에 신뢰도 요구사항 만족을 위한 시스템의 신뢰도 예측은 RBD모델을 사용하였다. 하지만 이중계제어장치와 같이 여분을 갖는 시스템의 신뢰도를 RBD와 같은 조합모델에 의해 정확한 신뢰도를 모델링하기에 부적합하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 다중계구조 제어기의 설계과정에서 단순조합모델에 의한 설계방식 선정보다는 결함발생에 대한 여분구조의 모델링을 통한 설계방식 선정이 보다 정확한 신뢰도를 갖는 시스템구축을 가능하게 하며, 운영중에 발생되는 유지보수비용 및 고장으로 인한 손실비용의 효율화를 위해 필요함을 입증한다.

Prognostic impact of chromogranin A in patients with acute heart failure

  • Kim, Hong Nyun;Yang, Dong Heon;Park, Bo Eun;Park, Yoon Jung;Kim, Hyeon Jeong;Jang, Se Yong;Bae, Myung Hwan;Lee, Jang Hoon;Park, Hun Sik;Cho, Yongkeun;Chae, Shung Chull
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2021
  • Background: Chromogranin A (CgA) levels have been reported to predict mortality in patients with heart failure. However, information on the prognostic value and clinical availability of CgA is limited. We compared the prognostic value of CgA to that of previously proven natriuretic peptide biomarkers in patients with acute heart failure. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 272 patients (mean age, 68.5±15.6 years; 62.9% male) who underwent CgA test in the acute stage of heart failure hospitalization between June 2017 and June 2018. The median follow-up period was 348 days. Prognosis was assessed using the composite events of 1-year death and heart failure hospitalization. Results: In-hospital mortality rate during index admission was 7.0% (n=19). During the 1-year follow-up, a composite event rate was observed in 12.1% (n=33) of the patients. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for predicting 1-year adverse events were 0.737 and 0.697 for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and CgA, respectively. During follow-up, patients with high CgA levels (>158 pmol/L) had worse outcomes than those with low CgA levels (≤158 pmol/L) (85.2% vs. 58.6%, p<0.001). When stratifying the patients into four subgroups based on CgA and NT-proBNP levels, patients with high NT-proBNP and high CgA had the worst outcome. CgA had an incremental prognostic value when added to the combination of NT-proBNP and clinically relevant risk factors. Conclusion: The prognostic power of CgA was comparable to that of NT-proBNP in patients with acute heart failure. The combination of CgA and NT-proBNP can improve prognosis prediction in these patients.

THINNED PIPE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM OF KOREAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Lee, S.H.;Lee, Y.S.;Park, S.K.;Lee, J.G.
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2015
  • Local wall thinning and integrity degradation caused by several mechanisms, such as flow accelerated corrosion (FAC), cavitation, flashing and/or liquid drop impingements, are a main concern in carbon steel piping systems of nuclear power plant in terms of safety and operability. Thinned pipe management program (TPMP) had been developed and optimized to reduce the possibility of unplanned shutdown and/or power reduction due to pipe failure caused by wall thinning in the secondary side piping system. This program also consists of several technical elements such as prediction of wear rate for each component, prioritization of components for inspection, thickness measurement, calculation of actual wear and wear rate for each component. Decision making is associated with replacement or continuous service for thinned pipe components. Establishment of long-term strategy based on diagnosis of plant condition regarding overall wall thinning is also essential part of the program. Prediction models of wall thinning caused by FAC had been established for 24 operating nuclear plants. Long term strategies to manage the thinned pipe component were prepared and applied to each unit, which was reflecting plant specific design, operation, and inspection history, so that the structural integrity of piping system can be maintained. An alternative integrity assessment criterion and a computer program for thinned piping items were developed for the first time in the world, which was directly applicable to the secondary piping system of nuclear power plant. The thinned pipe management program is applied to all domestic nuclear power plants as a standard procedure form so that it contributes to preventing an accident caused by FAC.

HILS 기법을 적용한 신축관 이음 수명예측에 관한 연구 (A Study for Lifetime Predition of Expansion Joint Using HILS)

  • 오정수;조승현
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 플랜트 기자재 중 수충격에 매우 취약한 신축관 이음을 대상으로 수충격 발생 시 신축관 이음의 신축량의 변화를 현장에서 취득한 후 HIL 시뮬레이터의 작동데이터로 적용한 HILS 기법을 적용한 진동내구 시험을 수행하였다. 또한 진동내구 시험 시 내구수명의 주요 스트레스 인자로 신축관 내부압력을 가정하였다. 진동내구 시험은 신축관 내부 설정압 따라 진행되었으며 수명데이터를 이용, 수명데이터를 잘 따르는 곡선을 접합하여 수명예측 모델식을 유도하였고 특정 내부 설정압에서의 시험 및 수명결과를 통하여 이를 검증하였다. 한편, 시험 중 발생 된 신축관의 고장모드는 모두 벨로우즈 부 표면에 발생된 크랙과 크랙을 통한 누수 등이 있었다. 본 연구에서 유도한 수명에측 모델식은 설정압력을 스트레스 인자로 따르는 전형적인 역승모형이며 특정환경에서만 적용될 수 있는 한계를 지니고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 진동내구 수명의 가속요인인 압력 외 온도상태 등을 다양한 수명변수가 적용 가능한 복합수명예측 모델식을 개발할 예정이다.