• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.997-1005
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• 2003

In this paper, the problem of determining optimal burn-in time is considered under a general failure model. There are two types of failure in the general failure model. One is Type I failure (minor failure) which can be removed by a minimal repair and the other is Type II failure (catastrophic failure) which can be removed only by a complete repair. In this model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure occurs with probability 1 - p(t) and Type II failure occurs with probability p(t), $0{\leq}p(t)\leq1$. Under the model, the properties of optimal burn-in time maximizing mean time to the catastrophic failure during field operation are obtained. The obtained results are also applied to some illustrative examples.

• 한국산업경영시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국산업경영시스템학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.139-149
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• 2002

This paper presents an approach to derive probability models for use in structural reliability studies. Two main points are made. First, that it is possible to translate engineering and physics knowledge into a requirement on the form of a probability model. And second, that making assumptions about a probability model for structural failure implies either explicit or hidden assumptions about material and structural properties. The work is foundational in nature, but is developed with explicit examples taken from planar and general stress problems, the von Mises failure criterion, and a modified Weibull distribution.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제24권7호
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• pp.656-662
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• 1991

endocarditis, 1.475% /pt-yr, overall valve failure, 3.319% /pt-yr; and primary tissue failure, 1.475% /pt-yr. The actuarial probability of survival was 94.3$\pm$3.6% and the probability of freedom from thromboembolism 90.6$\pm$4.6% at 11 years after surgery respectively. And, the probability of freedom from primary tissue failure was 60.4$\pm$16.9% also at 11 years The evidence of possible premature and accelerated failure of the pericardial valve in the aortic position among the young population was not clear on the age-related analysis of the structural failure, and no suggestion could be made to indicate age limit when the use of the pericardial valve would better be avoided.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

최저 안전율 또는 최대 파괴확률을 기반으로 하는 기존의 사면안정해석에 대하여, 지반물성과 해석모델이 갖는 고유 불확실성을 최소화하고, 사면안정해석에서 다양한 안정해석모델과 그에 따른 파괴형상을 반영할 수 있도록, 다중 파괴모드를 고려한 사면의 신뢰성해석기법을 제안하였다. 파괴확률의 산정에는 체계 신뢰성해석분야에서 최근 도입된 선형계획법에 의한 최적화를 이용하였다. 이를 통하여 여러 가지 해석모델을 신뢰성 기반으로 동시에 고려하여 해석할 수 있다. 선형계획법에 의한 다중 파괴 모드를 고려한 파괴확률 산정기법을 이용하여 단순 사면의 경사도 결정을 위한 최적 설계를 검토하였다. 그 결과, 동시 파괴확률을 이용하면, 대상으로 하는 사면안정해석모델과 파괴형상 및 파괴확률을 복합적으로 고려할 수 있기 때문에 개선된 안전성을 확보할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권11호
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• pp.2305-2311
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• 2002

The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

화재모델링을 이용한 목표 대상물의 열적 손상에 대한 정량적 위험성 평가방법이 검토되었다. 이를 위해 대표적인 화재모델로서 FDS가 사용되었으며, 특정 구획 내에서 화원 면적 변화에 따른 전기 케이블의 열적 손상과 관련된 확률이 평가되었다. 보수적 관점에서 적용되고 있는 '최대 손상임계 초과확률'과 손상시간의 정보가 포함된 '손상확률'이 체계적으로 비교되었다. 목표 대상물이 표면온도 및 열유속에 대한 최소 손상기준에 도달하는 순간에 열적 손상이 발생된다는 가정이 적용된 최대 손상임계 초과확률에 비해 본 연구에서 제안된 손상확률은 정량적 화재 위험성을 보다 현실적으로 평가할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.393-403
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• 2003

In this paper, various replacement policies for the general failure model are considered. There are two types of failure in the general failure model. One is Type I failure (minor failure) which can be removed by a minimal repair and the other is Type II failure (catastrophic failure) which can be removed only by a complete repair. In this model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure occurs with probability 1-p(t) and Type II failure occurs with probability p(t), $0{\leq}p(t){\leq}1$. Under the model, optimal replacement policies for the long-run average cost rate and the limiting efficiency are considered. Also taking the cost and the efficiency into consideration at the same time, the properties of the optimal policies under the Cost-Priority-Criterion and the Efficiency-Priority-Criterion are obtained.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.185-192
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• 2003

In this paper, the properties on the optimal replacement policies for the general failure model are developed. In the general failure model, two types of system failures may occur : one is Type I failure (minor failure) which can be removed by a minimal repair and the other, Type II failure (catastrophic failure) which can be removed only by complete repair. It is assumed that, when the unit fails, Type I failure occurs with probability 1-p and Type II failure occurs with probability p, $0\leqp\leq1$. Under the model, the system is minimally repaired for each Type I failure, and it is repaired completely at the time of the Type II failure or at its age T, whichever occurs first. We further assume that the repair times are non-negligible. It is assumed that the minimal repair times in a renewal cycle consist of a strictly increasing geometric process. Under this model, we study the properties on the optimal replacement policy minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time.

• 한국세라믹학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.279-288
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• 1991

KIST/CARES reliability analysis program was used to calculate failure probabilities of piston pin and poppet valve. The 4-point bending test was performed on Sin/Hip Si3N4 for obtaining material parameters such as m, $\sigma$o, and KB, and the finite element analysis was performed using MSC/NASTRAN for obtaining stress distribution. The calculated failure probability of piston pin was lower than 10-6 and the failure probaility of poppet valve was greater than 0.95.

• 한국세라믹학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.116-122
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• 1989

MOR test and concentric ring test were performed to evaluate the failure probability of sin/hip Si3N4 under uniaxial and biaxial stress state, respectively. Their failure probabilities were analized with KARA program based on Weibull PIA model and Batdorf model with 5 criteria, and they were compared with experiments. PIA model is in best accordance with experiments in higher fracture strength regions, especially for Pf 0.3. But in lower fracture strength region, none of the models predicts the failure probabilities appropriately.