• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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• pp.469-474
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• 2008

The reason for crashworthy landing gear is to contribute to the overall aircraft design goals in the event of a crash. One of crashworthy landing gear design approaches is inclusion of structural fuse. Structural fuse is used to control the mode of failure of landing gear. If structural fuse doesn't work at desired condition, other unexpected accidents can occur. In this paper, failure probability is calculated for landing gear structural fuse and improvement measure is introduced to improve failure probability of structural fuse.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2010

P-PIE program is developed for evaluating failure probability of pipes in nuclear power plants based on the existing PRAISE program. In the program, crack growth due to fatigue loading and stress corrosion can be considered and the probability of fracture or leakage of pipes can be calculated. Crack growth simulation is performed based on stress intensity factor and a damage parameter and failure of a pipe is determined based on J integral or net section yielding. Using the developed program the failure probabilities of tubes in a domestic nuclear power is obtained and discussed.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.24-30
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• 2011

최저 안전율 또는 최대 파괴확률을 기반으로 하는 기존의 사면안정해석에 대하여, 지반물성과 해석모델이 갖는 고유 불확실성을 최소화하고, 사면안정해석에서 다양한 안정해석모델과 그에 따른 파괴형상을 반영할 수 있도록 다중 파괴모드에 대한 동시 파괴확률을 고려한 사면의 신뢰성해석기법을 제안하였다. 붕괴현장조사를 통하여 현장에서 가장 빈번하게 발생하는 파괴형식을 다파괴모드로 정의하였다. 동시 파괴확률의 산정에는 체계 신뢰성해석분야에서 최근 도입된 선형계획법에 의한 최적화를 이용하였으며, 이를 통하여 여러 가지 해석모델을 신뢰성 기반으로 동시에 고려하여 해석할 수 있다. 이 방법의 적용성 평가를 위하여 기존 문헌에서 나타난 제방에 대한 신뢰성해석 결과와 비교하였다. 다중 파괴모드에 대한 동시 파괴확률을 고려한 사면의 신뢰성 해석을 적용한 결과, 전체 시스템에 대한 대한 안정성을 정량적으로 산출할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 터널과지하공간
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.360-373
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• 2021

지반공학 분석에는 재료정수의 샘플링 및 실험기술에 이르기까지 많은 불확실성의 원인이 존재한다. 암반사면의 평면파괴에 대한 기존의 결정론적 안정성 분석은 안전율은 계산하지만, 파괴확률이나 신뢰지수를 고려하지 않는다. 기존의 사면안정해석에서는 지반의 불확실성을 전체적 안전율로 평가하여 현실적인 암반사면의 안정성을 자세히 평가하기가 힘들다. 본 논문에서는 암석사면의 평면파괴에 적용되는 MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series와 같은 기존의 확률론적 분석기법을 자세히 검토한다. 몬테카를로 방법(MCS)은 가장 정확한 확률론적 안전율을 계산한다. 그러나 이 방법은 시간이 많이 걸리는 문제가 발생되므로 간이 확률론적 방법은 MCS에 대한 대안이 될 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 간이 확률론적 방법을 사용하여 암반사면의 평면파괴에 대한 확률분석을 제시하였다.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2002년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.300-307
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• 2002

Bridge foundation failure considering the effect of local scour around pier foundations under hi-directional seismic excitations is examined in probabilistic perspectives. The seismic responses of bridges with deep foundations are evaluated with a simplified mechanical model, which can consider the local scour effect around the deep foundation in addition to many other components. The probabilistic characteristics of local scour depths are estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic characteristics of basic random variables used in the Monte Carlo simulation are determined from the actual hydraulic data collected in middle size streams in Korea. The failure condition of deep foundation is assumed as bearing capacity failure of the ground below the foundation base. The probability of foundation failure of a simply supported bridge with various scour conditions and hi-directional seismic excitations are examined. It is found that the local scour and the recovery duration are critical factors in evaluating the probability of foundation failure. Moreover, the probability of foundation failure under hi-directional seismic excitations is much higher than under uni-directional seismic excitations. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider hi-directional seismic excitations in evaluating the seismic safety of bridge systems scoured by a flood.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.30-38
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• 2020

In order to construct a dam, the diversion facility such as cofferdam and a diversion tunnel should be installed in advance. And size of a cofferdam depends on type of a main dam. According to the Korea Dam Design Standard, if the main dam is a concrete dam, design flood of the cofferdam is 1~2 years flood frequency. This means that overflow of the cofferdam occurs one time for 1 or 2 years, therefore, stability of the cofferdam should be secured against any overflow problem. In this study, failure probability analysis for the concrete cofferdam is performed considering the overflow. First of all, limit state function of the concrete cofferdam is defined for overturning, sliding and base pressure, and upstream water levels are set as El. 501 m, El. 503 m, El. 505 m, El. 507 m. Also, after literature investigation research, probabilistic characteristics of various random variables are determined, the failure probability of the concrete cofferdam is calculated using the Monte Carlo Simulation. As a result of the analysis, when the upstream water level rises, it means overflow, the failure probability increases rapidly. In particular, the failure probability is largest in case of flood loading condition. It is considered that the high upstream water level causes increase of the upstream water pressure and the uplift pressure on the foundation. In addition, among the overturning, the sliding and the base pressure, the overturing is the major cause for the cofferdam failure considering the overflow.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.116-122
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• 2003

몬테칼로법은 복잡한 특히 비선형문제를 푸는데 강력한 공학도구중의 하나이다. 이 방법은 컴퓨터에서의 통계적인 표본추출방법을 이용하여 각종 공학적인 문제에 근사적인 해를 준다. 교량 하나의 요소나 전체교량의 시간 의존적 파괴확률을 예측하는 방법중의 하나로 생애함수가 있다. 이 논문에서는 교량의 요소나 전체 교량의 파괴확률을 예측하기 위하여, 시스템 신뢰성과 생애함수를 이용하여 포트란 프로그램을 개발하였다. 몬테칼로법은 생애함수의 매개변수를 생성하는데 이용되었다. 적용례로서, 개발된 프로그램은 콘크리트-강 합성 교량에 적용되어, 파괴확률을 예측하는데 이용되었다.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2001

신뢰성 해석을 위한 직접계산법을 이용하여 경사제 피복재의 파괴확률이 안전계수의 함수로 산정되었다. 신뢰함수를 수립하기 위하여 현재 설계에서 가장 많이 적용되고 있는 Hudson 공식을 사용하였다. 제체의 경사, 피복재의 종류, 쇄파 및 비쇄파 그리고 각 확률변수의 상관성에 따른 안전계수와 파괴확률의 관계가 제시되었다. 또한 신뢰함수에 포함된 각 확률변수의 변동계수에 따른 영향이 민감도 분석을 통하여 정량적으로 해석되었다.